An Important “Credible Fear” Circuit Split — To See Supreme Court Review — After The Election Is Decided? We Think So…

Let’s just drop this in here, for a time when — after the next five to ten days — the election decision is largely behind us. I predict the Supremes will review this Circuit split, below.

It will decide what — and when — people without papers (alleging credible fear of torture or abuse, if “refouled”) must file, to remain in the country, and engage in a due process series of hearings, over months or years. Here’s the very fine SCOTUS Blog, on it all:

…[B]ecause of [immigration] agency backlogs, those administrative proceedings often last long periods of time — sometimes months or even years. The asylum officer’s decision to reinstate the deportation order can be reviewed by an immigration judge, whose ruling in turn is reviewed by the Board of Immigration Appeals, which in turn is subject to review by the regional federal court of appeals. The review provision states that the noncitizen’s “petition for review must be filed not later than 30 days after the date of the final order of removal.”

There are two circuit splits here. First: Most courts of appeals have held that they can review the BIA’s decision to deny withholding deportation if the petition for review is filed within 30 days of the immigration judge’s decision upholding the reinstated deportation. But two appeals courts have held that the 30-day period runs from when the asylum officer determines that the prior deportation order should be reinstated, well before the immigration judge’s review.

Second: The courts of appeals are divided about whether the 30-day limit is a constraint that they are powerless to disregard, or if it is instead simply a “claims processing rule” to which exceptions can sometimes be made.

The government concedes that the there are splits on both issues, and it argues that the noncitizens here are correct both that the 30-day period runs from BIA’s final affirmance and that it is a claims processing rule subject to exceptions. It nonetheless argues that the court does not need to grant review now because the justices recently held in Harrow v. Department of Defense that a similar filing deadline is not jurisdictional, noting that “ ‘most time bars are nonjurisdictional,’ even when ‘framed in mandatory terms.’”

In addition, the government argues that review would be premature because the courts that have held that the 30-day period runs from the asylum officer’s decision to reinstate deportation appear to be reconsidering that rule, and the government promises to “waive the application of the 30-day deadline” in those cases anyway. Thus, the government maintains it would be enough to grant the petitions, vacate the adverse court of appeals judgments below, and remand for further consideration in light of Harrow.

The three noncitizens seeking Supreme Court review argue that the court should take up these issues notwithstanding the government’s concessions, and two explicitly argue that their cases would be the best vehicle if the Supreme Court decides to do so. But all agree that the court at minimum should follow the government’s advice and GVR….

Now you know — and onward to big things, both tomorrow and Tuesday! Grin….

नमस्ते

Paul Seems To Equate Kamala With… Hubert Humphrey?! He Needs To Get Out More…

I do think it is a lil’ too precious that Paul has to reach back almost 60 years, to claim that Democratic former Veeps cannot top the ticket and win.

We would note that these final polling numbers, at right, in the swing states — while still very close… are breaking Kamala’s way here at the end.

And Tangerine needs to win at least five of the seven of those on the list at right, otherwise he has no path to 271. [And, he’s behind — in all but two.]

So… with clear, warm weather forecast for Tuesday — over much of the nation, and thus heavy turnouts likely — it is all over but the shouting, Paul.

Do take a seat.

North Carolina Absentee Ballot Dispute Remains In Federal Court — Won’t Be Decided Before Tuesday, So ~225,000 Absentee Ballots Will Count…

This case has turned on the undisputed fact that the GOP sought to strike about 225,000 voters from the roles of eligible people, within the 90 day “quiet period” before any election.

The federal courts have ruled that the federal constitutional question confers the right to decide the matter in non-partial federal courts. That means there will be no win for the NC GOP before Tuesday, and all these 225,000 votes must be counted (assuming they are otherwise validly cast on or before November 5). Excellent. Even FAUX News gets the import of it:

…A federal appeals court blocked a GOP effort to challenge 225,000 voter registrations in North Carolina that they claimed were made without a [laminated state issued picture] ID requirement.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) and North Carolina Republican Party (NCGOP) filed a lawsuit against the North Carolina State Board of Elections claiming voters were registered using a registration form that did not require identification such as an ID or Social Security number. The suit claimed that allowing people on voter rolls without [laminated state issued picture] identification violated the Help America Vote Act….

Onward, resolutely. Onward.

नमस्ते

“Near Earth” Space TV Events: Sunday Morning, And Later On Monday… “Valet Parking” Edition

The International Space Station will be acting like a valet-parking garage early on Sunday morning — into Monday.

That is, the team on the ISS will move one space capsule around to the “back” of the station, in an older parking spot — to make room for “the new hotness’s arrival” on Monday night, at the front deck spot. Here is NASA on the live streaming options to watch these events:

. . .Coverage of the NASA/SpaceX Crew-9 Dragon Relocation from the forward port of the Harmony module at the International Space Station to the zenith port (Hague, Gorbunov, Williams, Wilmore; undocking scheduled at 6:35 a.m. EST, redocking scheduled at 7:18 a.m. EST)….

Yup — astronaut missions are so routine now in this 21st Century — that some act as mere “car hops“. Coolio!

Onward — now, do get out and… VOTE (if you haven’t already)! Clear warm weather is forecast through Tuesday, for much of the nation — and while perhaps half of all votes nationwide have already been cast (early) — good weather on the actual Election Day generally favors Democratic candidates (with higher urban turnouts, especially — since most urban voters must wait in line outside, on election day, in most precincts, nationwide)… and so, I’d say… buckle up for… Madame President, boys! Smile.

नमस्ते

Ahem. Hinderaker Forgot To Mention The Disbarred Jenna Ellis and The Censured Sidney Powell… Y A W N

This morning, Hinderaker thinks that a few hateful bubble headed bleach blonde women are proof of Tangerine’s appeal with real, strong powerful (and compassionate) American women.

Not so.

He lists Sarah Huckabee as among his “proofs” — that’s just… comical. She’s an… idiot and her father’s ideologue.

Most of the women who took leading roles for Trump last time are either in hiding (Ivanka and Betsy DeVos) or under investigation (Ex-Speaker McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao) or disbarred and / or suspended from the practice of law.

H I L A R I O U S.

In point of fact, none of these Eva Braun / ditzes will matter.

The weather will be nice and warm Tuesday, in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Expect turnout to be high, and thus expect Kamala will carry all three of these. Without at least two of them, Tangerine has no path to 271.

None.

See ‘ya Johnnie.

Out.

Supremes: Provisional Ballots In Pennsylvania Must Be Counted… As The Penn. Supreme Court Has Ruled, Under State Law.

The specific dispute concerns only two ballots, from the long over primaries in Pennsylvania. And the Court correctly concluded that the way Pennsylvania handles this should not be upset, just four nights before the general election.

The Justices offered this statement, denying the GOP’s attempt to prevent the counting of these provisional ballots:

…The application of the State Supreme Court’s interpretation in the upcoming election is a matter of considerable importance, but even if we agreed with the applicants’ federal constitutional argument (a question on which I express no view at this time), we could not prevent the consequences they fear. The lower court’s judgment concerns just two votes in the long-completed Pennsylvania primary. Staying that judgment would not impose any binding obligation on any of the Pennsylvania officials who are responsible for the conduct of this year’s election.

And because the only state election officials who are parties in this case are the members of the board of elections in one small county, we cannot order other election boards to sequester affected ballots. For these reasons, I agree with the order denying the application….

Perhaps a small matter, but it does give me the impression that the Supremes are not going to unduly push their thumbs onto the scales in the 2024 general, to aid Tangerine. Excellent.

नमस्ते

When Using A Euphemism… For An Insurrection, Hinderaker Must Be Called Out On It.

Hinderaker’s deceitful rhetoric is in high dungeon this morning… as he worries that Tangerine has lost the election, already. [Almost half of the nation has already cast their ballots, you see.]

He wants us to believe that there is a moral equivalence between J6 (depicted at right; with his and Tucker’s endorsement of it) — and the entirely lawful (specifically designed into the Constitution itself!) 2000 Supreme Court case after the Gore v. Bush election, and the peaceful, quiet protests (and about three court cases)… after 2016’s.

On January 6, 2021 — at Tangerine’s direction, a mob engaged in felony murder, beat and overwhelmed Capitol Police and DC Police — set fires; threw smoke bombs and ransacked Congressional offices. And stole a podium off the House floor. For several hours the rioters threatened the lives of the Senators and the Vice President, trapped inside the building.

After all that failed, Tangerine still filed 63 lawsuits (all of those failed) — and continues to deny that he lost by about 8 million votes, in 2020.

Thus there is manifestly no comparison between what the MAGAts did, and Bush / Gore 2000 (and what Trump is now openly threatening to do, when he comes up short by about 11 million votes, here in 2024).

None. Take a seat — you putz.

While the election is indeed quite close, your suggestion that honest errors in mainstream polls are (somehow) nefarious — while outright jimmying with them (by Rasmussen, for example — or the wash trading, in the Polymarket betting pools!) is not… is just silly.

African Union Health Chief Says Mpox Is “Not Under Control” And New Case Rates On The Continent Are “Still Rising”…

This is particularly discouraging news.

It is discouraging, primarily because this is simply a resource allocation problem.

That is, there is a working vaccine — there are experimental therapies; and there are test kits, all specifically for Mpox. But all three categories of these are in very short supply inside DRC and the other 18 African nations now afflicted. Globally, we need to be spending much more to arrest this outbreak. Fatality rates approach 20% among the afflicted (if untreated), and over 65% of those afflicted are… children. Here’s Al Jezeera’s latest — on it all:

…The African Union’s health watchdog has warned that the mpox outbreak was still not under control and appealed for resources to avoid a “more severe” pandemic than COVID-19.

“The situation is not yet under control, we are still on the upward trend generally,” Ngashi Ngongo from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) told a briefing on Thursday.

“What we need is the continuous political and financial mobilisation,” Ngongo said, adding that this was a necessary measure to stop mpox from being another pandemic “which would be much more severe than COVID-19”.

Mpox, previously known as monkeypox, is caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected animals but can also be passed from human to human through close physical contact….

When you know better — you must do better.

नमस्ते

More Encouraging News, Out Of Rwanda — On Marburg Outbreak 2024…

This is encouraging — the trend is more and more toward… arrest, of the viral loads.

We will keep our fingers crossed — as CIDRAP has the latest, here:

…Yesterday Rwanda reported one new Marburg virus case — a known contact of an earlier case, but officials said they were cautiously optimistic the outbreak of the deadly filovirus was dwindling.

“It’s not time to declare victory, but we are headed in that direction,” said Yvan Butera, MD, PhD, Rwanda’s minister of state, standing in for the country’s health minister during an Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) briefing today….

In related news, the Sabin Vaccine Institute announced on X it was sending 1,000 more doses of the experimental Marburg vaccine was being send to Rwanda after the initial 1,700 vaccines were sent in September. The Institute said 1,600 doses have already been used in at-risk populations, including healthcare workers….

These (at top, above — far right) are electron scanning microscope images of the individual particles of Marburg virus. Other graphics here show them speckling the top of a u-shaped cell structure, but these are the actual, individual lil’ critters, above.

Now you know.

नमस्ते