Author: condor

Current Options Skews Suggest A 40% Chance SpaceX Will Be Trading Below $130, In September 2026… Grin.

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The odd-ball conglomerate flyer (almost exclusively on Muskian exuberance) posted a meteoric rise, immediately post-IPO pricing — ripping north from $135 — to just under $220.

But then… a cold harsh reality set in — and it fell back to Earth… now trading between $148 and $153 a share.

I think the options skews are pretty accurate here. It was very fully priced at its IPO — all the rest was just stupid FOMO buying, mostly by retail. Then the larger holders began selling at the over-inflated price — locking in huge gains, while still holding a fraction of their original allotments. It is the oldest hot IPO game on the planet — reserved for funds managing north of $2 billion. And it has played out according to Hoyle, yet again.

So — as the price more and more is dragged toward a “mean” / reality… the options skews look for a ~$130 price by September. I agree.

Here’s one of the auto-bot rags, on standardized options trading activity over the past week:

…[L]et’s consider what the options market is showing. This is where investors buy contracts that allow them to bet on whether a particular stock will rise or fall during a given time frame. A call option, considered bullish, offers the holder the right to buy a certain stock at a set price, while a put option, considered bearish, offers the holder the right to sell at a set price.

Options activity shows a 40% probability of SpaceX stock falling below $130 by the middle of September, Reuters reported this week, citing Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson. If this happens, IPO investors may see a loss of at least 3.7%.

Though options still are leaning in a bullish direction, the 40% I mentioned above is high enough to suggest investors might want to proceed with caution….

We just find it all… hilarious. Musk always over-promises, and under delivers. So too (again), here.

Onward.

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Community Ebola Transmission Rates Continue To Rise In Ituri — As At Least 300 People Carrying The Virus Are “Missing” From Health Centers…

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And that, in turn, portends a very alarming fall — for the sick, and dying — primarily in and around Ituri Province, DRC. Models developed by the African CDC predict the deaths will be over 1,400 by September — and the sickness levels will approach 8,500 cases. [The “unconfirmed” totals will be much higher — as entire areas will not have been adequately triaged, for the spread of the disease.]

Without USAID on the ground — it is simply not possible to turn health facilities into enforced stay / prisons — and traditional healers are still telling the afflicted that they may go home — and that they might cure it — with prayers, alone. That is effectively gasoline, on an already raging bonfire. Here’s the latest from the UK Guardian, reporting overnight:

…The whereabouts of almost 300 people who have tested positive for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is unknown, according to Africa’s top public health official.

The humanitarian crisis amid the conflict in the affected areas means more than 1 million people are living in camps to which health workers have no access, Dr Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said on Thursday.

His comments came as projections from the World Health Organization’s Africa regional office, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, predicted there will be about 8,210 cases and 1,420 deaths by mid-September….

The 300 may also be largely migrants — miners or sex workers that follow them — and thus may spread widely in DRC and into Uganda now. That is very very chilling — as potentials for epidemics go. Yikes. And still no approved vaccine for this Bundibugyo strain. Out.

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Condor Predicts: The Issues On Appeal, In The Fourth Circuit, As To Abrego Garcia… Will Be Reduced To… One. And He Will Win Out.

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Tangerine 2.0 earlier appealed, claiming that USDC Judge Xinis wasn’t ruling fast enough, after those chuckleheads had delayed for almost a year, in filing their motions. And after they had lost, essentially everything — in Tennessee. Yawn.

So today, Abrego Garcia’s fine counsel has moved the Fourth Circuit to suspend briefing deadlines, and rule on the only even colorably live issue up on appeal: whether Judge Xinis’ injunction was entered in error. It was not, and Abrego will win. Here’s his motion to suspend briefing, tonight.

Here’s some of the muscular argument, proper — from his team:

…When Abrego Garcia reported to the Baltimore ICE field office as directed on August 25, 2025, ICE immediately detained him. Add.28. He filed a habeas petition that same day. ECF 1. That afternoon, the district court issued an oral order enjoining the Government from removing Abrego Garcia from the United States, Add.1, and it made specific findings as to why the injunction was warranted, Add.6:2–9:16.3 Two days later, on August 27, the court entered a written order continuing that injunction. Add.20. On September 26, the court entered another order continuing the injunction. Add.21. The Government had 60 days to appeal the injunction and each continuation under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1). Fed. R. App. P. 4(a)(1)(B). It chose to appeal none of them….

Meanwhile, the Government “serially ‘notified’ Abrego Garcia — while he sat in ICE custody — of his expulsion to Uganda, then Eswatini, then Ghana; but none of these countries were ever viable options, and at least two had not even been asked to take Abrego Garcia before [the Government] claimed supposed removal to each.” Add.49 (citing ECF 52). It finally settled on Liberia on October 24. ECF 56.

On November 7, [2025] the Government filed a motion to dissolve the injunction so that it could remove Abrego Garcia to Liberia….

[Then,] the Government “affirmatively misled” the district court that “Liberia is the only viable removal option” for Abrego Garcia and that “Costa Rica ‘does not wish to receive him’” and “will no longer ‘accept the transfer’ of him.” Add.50 (citations omitted).

After the Government’s misrepresentations became public, Costa Rica publicly reaffirmed “that its offer to grant Abrego Garcia residence and refugee status is, and always has been, firm, unwavering, and unconditional.” Add.35 (citing ECF 108); Add.50. On December 11, the district court granted Abrego Garcia’s habeas petition for immediate release from ICE custody [because Tangerine 2.0] had no lawful basis to detain or remove Abrego Garcia….

Every bit of it is flawless — do go read it all — but we’ve recited it here many times: this is a lying government, under Tangerine 2.0. It cannot be taken at its word. And thus, the Fourth Circuit will “cut square corners” with it, and dump Trump’s vindictive, idiotic and prevaricating appeal. You can bank on it.

[Smile — and if you scan the local papers, this evening you may see me (in the second pic in the story) sitting dead center — with my brother in law, and my nephew in law… watching World Cup in the park last night.] Hilarious.

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Hey Hinderaker: Treat Trump After 2020, Like Bolton… RIGHT?!

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The irony flies literally off the screen / page here.

Hinderaker is busy pontificating about all the bad things that John Bolton did. It doesn’t really matter to me how it came to light, I always thought he was a tool. But I do know that Trump 2.0 targeted him mostly because he had criticized Trump 1.0.

Well, Trump got his revenge today, when Bolton pleaded guilty… And now faces up to five years in jail. [At age 77, that five years — if imposed might well be a natural life sentence. Damnation.]

The primary reason for my post though, is John Hinderaker seems blissfully unaware that his exact same logic and commentary should apply to Donald Trump — shortly after the 2020 transfer of power:

…More importantly, this [TRUMP/Bolton] case illustrates the hazard of casual handling of secret information by Washington insiders that we have seen over and over.

Among other things, the use of personal email accounts to transmit classified information, or simply information that officials want to be immune from FOIA requests, has been widespread and is dangerous.

Let’s hope that TRUMP / Bolton’s example causes officials to act more carefully in the future.…

The level of deflection / projection here is astonishing: Hinderaker indicates that hiding things to avoid FOIA requests is both reprehensible — and felonious.

Ahem, John… there are photos of Donald Trump‘s public washroom (behind the ballroom), and the shuttered stage area of that ballroom — literally stacked willy-nilly with boxes of classified documents that he stole from Washington, as he departed in 2021.

So I don’t wanna’ hear a peep out of John when felony indictments are handed up against Trump 2.0 this time around because you know he will do the same thing, again.

There is evidence that Donnie was selling access to those boxes in the sh!tter. Damn.

Onward.

As EU Data Is Now More Reliable Than Trumpian-Led Public Health / Outbreak Data, We [Sadly] Present The Below…

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This is not a political posturing piece. No. This is… simply a recitation of… fact.

We will now source our ’26 Ebola outbreak data from the EU authorities. This is not a dart, at the hard-working career CDC or HHS staffers and scientific experts — but they are in fact being… stifled. So to the EU Commission departments we go. Here’s the latest, on all that, as of this morning:

…As of 26 June 2026, the Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus is affecting the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda.

On 25 June, the DRC Ministry of Health reported a total of 1,155 confirmed cases, including 304 confirmed related deaths, and 385 individuals hospitalised in isolation (as of 24 June). Included in this report are 37 new confirmed cases and five new deaths since the last update on ECDC’s website (25 June, with data as of 23 June).

Ituri is the most affected province, with 1,054 confirmed cases from 22 health zones. In North Kivu, 98 confirmed cases have been reported from 11 health zones, and in South Kivu, three cases from one health zone. Since the previous update, no new affected health zones have been reported in the three provinces. Surveillance data are continuously being reviewed and updated as samples from suspected Ebola disease cases go through the process of laboratory confirmation….

In the European Union/European Economic Area, one confirmed case of Ebola virus disease was reported in France by the Ministry of Health on 24 June. This is in addition to one other confirmed case reported on 19 May in a US citizen who was medically evacuated to Germany for treatment. Both cases were imported from areas affected by the ongoing outbreak in DRC….

Insanity — but off to watch another ice-skating recital at 12:30 pm local here again. Smile….

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Exactly 26 Years Ago Today, The Entire Human Genome Was Sequenced…

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And in that quarter century, since President Clinton announced Venter’s achievement, we have truly seen a brave new world emerge, in drug discovery — and forensics.

I mentioned in 2015 that a Stanford University Medical Research iPhone App garnered over 10,000 patient volunteers in its first two nights of availability in the Apple App Store (to conduct large cardiovascular studies).

In the old world, to get 10,000 patients enrolled in a CV study, one would expect that it would take over a year — and well north of $2 million, in expenses — just to get a CRO to find that many, and sign them to required informed consent forms… before even beginning a study. So, even if we may quibble about how perfect a match these 10,000 iPhone users will be — compared to the overall populations involved — that it was accomplished essentially for free — and in 48 hours — is positively mind-bending.

On that same 2015 morning, I saw that my favorite lil’ genome-mapping-by-spit company, 23andMe had just signed a Genentech executive to begin… drug discovery efforts, using the vast database of genomic information the company had built. I noted that the executive must have gotten a release under his non-compete from Genentech, because 23andMe already had agreed to collaborate with Roche (the parent), through Genentech — using the 23andMe database for. . . you guessed it — drug discovery. In fact, this same executive apparently spear-headed that deal.

All of this is entirely gob-smacking — because wonder oncology drugs (like pembrolizumab) from Merck are the result of that moment, over 26 years ago.

Here is a bit of that Year 2000 legacy:

…[We join] the scientific community in mourning the death of J. Craig Venter, a pioneer in genomics who helped shape the field by leading the quest to decode the human genome. The renowned biologist, author, and entrepreneur founded Celera Genomics, the Institute for Genomic Research, and the J. Craig Venter Institute (JCVI). He was also the cofounder of Human Longevity Inc. and Synthetic Genomics. Announced by JCVI, which stated that he had been recently hospitalized for complications from cancer treatment, Venter died on April 29, 2026, at the age of 79….

[I was off grid that week, so we note it now.]

To be sure, it is also true that far more deeply puzzling crimes — long treated as cold cases — murders, primarily, are being solved through the use of DNA testing on articles of clothing and even from bits of fingernails, or bones.

That this gives the victims’ families some level of closure (as an off-shoot of his pioneering work) is an important goal for society as well, but that is a story for another day.

Onward to a gorgeous Friday June morning — after a little disappointment, in the World Cup watch party last night in the park, on a jumbotron, here. But the US men are on to the next round.

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DRC Now Imposes 21 Day Waiting Period — And Medical Monitoring (For Ebola) — On International Travelers, Leaving Ituri Province…

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This below should convince skeptics that this is a very severe outbreak.

And as we’ve repeatedly said, there is no approved vaccine for this Bundibugyo version of Ebola. Here’s the latest:

…A June 24 decree signed by health minister Samuel-Roger Kamba requires anyone identified as a contact of a confirmed or ​suspected Ebola case to undergo 21 days of ⁠active health monitoring from their last exposure. During that period, all travel, domestic or international, is banned unless expressly ​authorized by health authorities.

The same monitoring rules apply to health workers, laboratory staff and response teams returning from affected areas, who must also obtain prior approval before travelling internationally.
More broadly, anyone who has stayed in an Ebola-affected province may only travel abroad ‌after ⁠spending at least 21 days outside the area.

All outbound international passengers are now required to complete a health declaration form issued by border health authorities, with airlines responsible for verifying compliance as ⁠an additional screening measure….

I cannot fathom the six SCOTUS “Justices” who’ve decided it is okay to send people back to countries of origin, where it has already been determined they will be tortured or killed, outright.

And that’s after Congress expressly gave them the right to litigate whether they could stay here in the US, with “temporarily protected” status.

Tangerine 2.0 proposes to end all that without additional notice or opportunity to be heard. That is far less than what our founding documents require of us — for all “persons” on our land. Out.

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German Merck’s Biggest M&A Deal Since 2015… And Sigma-Aldrich

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To be clear: this is no relation to “our” US Merck. This is the German company, separated by the Treaty of Versailles, after WWI. And it is the largest M&A deal (now under new leadership) in over eleven years, from Darmstadt. And this Minneapolis area company is surely a good bet — even if the price looks… a lil’… rich.

Here’s the morning’s most capable reporting on it all, from FiercePharma:

…Merck KGaA has agreed to put up $73 per share in cash to acquire Bio-Techne Corporation, which works out to a total consideration of roughly $11.3 billion for the Minneapolis-based provider and manufacturer of life sci tools, analytical technologies and consumables. The deal marks a 36% premium on Bio-Techne’s one-month average trading price, Merck KGaA said in a June 25 release….

Merck KGaA is set to gain a number of assets and capabilities through the purchase, including a well-known portfolio of cytokines, growth factors, antibodies and immunoassay kits. The German healthcare and electronics firm is also gaining access to Bio-Techne’s ProteinSimple line of automated protein detection and analysis instruments, plus additional tools that could bolster Merck KGaA’s positioning in spatial biology and diagnostics.

Bio-Techne’s established position as a provider of materials, analytics and process technologies to cell therapy developers is also set to bolster the combined companies’ bottom line, in Merck’s estimation….

Now you know — onward, into the sunshine of perfect June morning, here. Biking at the lake, ahead. [Maybe the Germans are paying a very full price, since these Minnesota operations will allow them to avoid any future tariffs the KGaA might face if Tangerine 2.0 goes stupid — again.] Smile….

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Comet 3i/ATLAS Is Likely Over 10 Billion Years Old — From Before Our Solar System’s Time — Goddard | NASA | JWST Analysis

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The idea that this little speck had been flying, frozen, for over 10 billion years, just to saunter on through our neighborhood, last year… makes the hairs on my arm… stand on end. It was already hurtling along, flung out of some likely distant, old and cold galaxy… about when ours was first congealing. Wow.

Here’s all that, summarizing a paper just published, in the journal Nature — from the US taxpayers’ Goddard | NASA’s JWST site:

…[JWST] captured detailed data, including chemical ratios of carbon and deuterium, also known as heavy hydrogen, that are not found in solar system comets. The results surprised researchers. Working backward, astronomers used the components that make up comet 3I/ATLAS to understand the environment in which it formed….

“This was a unique opportunity to study an ancient object from the distant galaxy, probably pre-dating our Sun and solar system,” said astro-chemist Martin Cordiner of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study. “On the one hand, we get direct insight into that distant time and place, and on the other, we learn something about how unusual our own solar system may be….”

[JWST’s] NIRSpec [instrument] revealed exceptionally high levels of deuterium, about 30 times more than seen in solar system comets. This implies that 3I/ATLAS may have originated in a very cold system much earlier in the history of our galaxy. During its formation, the material that became incorporated into 3I/ATLAS was likely exposed to plenty of radiation, but not any long-term warmth that would have reprocessed its “heavy water” ice, with deuterium, into the type of H2O ice we are familiar with on Earth….

[JWST’s] NIRSpec [instrument] showed only traces of carbon-13 compared to lighter-weight carbon-12. This also points to a very old origin for 3I/ATLAS, as stellar systems become enriched with carbon-13 over time as generations of stars are born and die in the galaxy. That is why there are higher levels of carbon-13 in our system, around our Sun, which formed relatively recently, 4.5 billion years ago….

That dirty snowball thus hails literally from a time (and a place) out of mind. From before when the disks that became Venus, Earth and Mars were just forming out of clouds of material. Amazing.

It came from a place [but perhaps not a time] we will never see — and a place likely no sentient being has ever… seen.

Onward, smiling — the isolation / altered states float was… excellent, this afternoon.

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The First EU Case Of Ebola Has Emerged — Now Isolating, In A High Tech Medical Facility, In France: An MD Who’d Gone To DRC To Give Aid…

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There will be more of this, to be certain.

Again, from the BBC’s reporting, this morning:

…France has confirmed its first case of Ebola – a doctor who had returned from a humanitarian mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The doctor was “immediately admitted to a specialised facility” and is in a stable condition, the French health ministry said on Wednesday.

DR Congo announced an Ebola outbreak last month, but experts believe the virus had been circulating for weeks previously….

This is the first Ebola case to have been confirmed in Europe, although an American doctor who tested positive in DR Congo was treated at a German hospital last month….

The US physician was ultimately brought home to the US to recover, at the beginning of this month.

Isolation / “Altered States” tanking, up next, on a gray but pleasant June morning. Smile….

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