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“Karl, The Drapery Guy”… Gets This Much RIGHT: Tangerine Is A Menace — To Ordered Liberty.

~ condor ~ Leave a comment

I honestly think Arnold was largely a worthless governor in California — gutting public university funding, and delaying my son’s graduation by a full year in the process.

So my own policy disagreements with him would run several pages. But he knows what it is, to be a real American. He is disgusted by Trumpism. And Trump.

Let’s listen in — from his letter and video, on X-itter this week:

…[R]ejecting the results of an election is as un-American as it gets. To someone like me who talks to people all over the world and still knows America is the shining city on a hill, calling America is [sic] a trash can for the world is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious.

And I will always be an American before I am a Republican.

That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do.

You don’t recognize our country. And you are right to be furious….

But a candidate who won’t respect your vote unless it is for him, a candidate who will send his followers to storm the Capitol while he watches with a Diet Coke, a candidate who has shown no ability to work to pass any policy besides a tax cut that helped his donors and other rich people like me but helped no one else else, a candidate who thinks Americans who disagree with him are the bigger enemies than China, Russia, or North Korea – that won’t solve our problems.

It will just be four more years of bullshit with no results that makes us angrier and angrier, more divided, and more hateful….

I want to move forward as a country, and even though I have plenty of disagreements with their platform, I think the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.

Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us….

Well. He’s not wrong.

Stick a fork in Tangerine. He’s… utterly done. Overcooked. Charred, in fact.

Out.

Trump’s $WLFI Crypto- Offering Slashes Raise By 90% — Lack Of Demand; Not Even At $15 Million Yet.

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As we mentioned last week, the court ordered monitor over his affairs — retired USDC Senior Judge Barbara Jones — reported that he’s running this new token scam through about 23 new entities. The implication was that the NY AG needed to seek a court order for the monitor to be able to keep tabs on these new entities.

The World Liberty Financial token, or $WLFI, had targeted an initial raise of $300 million.

As of this Monday, it still hadn’t sold $10 million worth. So today, it dropped the raise target to… $30 million — down 90%… and it is still about 66% shy of that reduced goal.

If the offering doesn’t reach $30 million, Trump cannot sell his own free tokens in the deal.

One might well ALSO read this (in contrast to the dumb money in the Polymarket betting) as the smart money saying he ain’t gonna’ hold office ever again — and most likely… only ultimately move to new digs (in 2025 or so)… in an orange jumpsuit. A guest of the federal BoP.

Ouch. Onward, to Tuesday. Buckle up, buttercup!

Halloween Barsoomian Space Fun! Phobos Makes “Spooky Eye” Transit Of Sun — Videoed By Perseverance, On Mars!

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Do watch the video — at actual speed, the transit takes under a minute. That gives a sense of the immense distances between these three bodies.

The waifish potato-shaped moon Phobos — one of two Martian moons — cast a silhouette as it passed in front of our own Sol, creating an “spooky eye” — in Mars’ dusk-skies, a few weeks ago.

Now do be safe — and have fun later this afternoon, one and all! Here’s the NASA bit, on the video below:

…From its perch on the western wall of Mars’ Jezero Crater, NASA’s Perseverance rover recently spied a “googly eye” peering down from space. The pupil in this celestial gaze is the Martian moon Phobos, and the iris is our Sun.

Captured by the rover’s Mastcam-Z on Sept. 30, the 1,285th Martian day of Perseverance’s mission, the event took place when the potato-shaped moon passed directly between the Sun and a point on the surface of Mars, obscuring a large part of the Sun’s disc. At the same time that Phobos appeared as a large black disc rapidly moving across the face of the Sun, its shadow, or antumbra, moved across the planet’s surface….

Now you know. Grin.

नमस्ते

Well… It Seems Paul Mirengoff Is Pretty Sure Trump Will Lose Tuesday. “Trump ISN’T CAPABLE of philosophical thought.”

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The long knives are coming — for Tangerine.

Hinderaker FINALLY(!) noticed Tangerine’s falling favorables, yesterday… and this morning, Paul openly savages him — while saying Trump is not (strictly speaking) a fascist:

…Gens. Mark Milley and John Kelly have accused Donald Trump of being a fascist — “fascist to the core,” according to the overwrought and seemingly ignorant Milley. Both retired generals hope the fact that they worked with Trump during his first term lends credibility to their name calling.

But John Bolton, another of Trump’s unhappy first-term advisers, rejects the fascist label as applied to his former boss. He says that fascism is a “comprehensive ideology” and that “Trump isn’t capable of philosophical thought….”

That’s… spot on.

As I close, I’ll post the clip of Trump nearly falling over, missing the door handle and generally looking very frail — at the garbage truck cosplay yesterday:

https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1851765350477754842

https://x.com/i/status/1851765350477754842

This would be disqualifying — if it had been seen of HRC or Mr. Biden, in the eyes of the Powerline boys, at least. As it is, the old coot Scott Johnson celebrates it — twice!

UPDATE: The Attempts By The State Of Texas — To Offer Unqualified, Lay Opinions… As “Evidence” — And Admit Hearsay, Generally… Are Just Comical.

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Next week, when the trial gets underway in Del Rio, Texas, before the able USDC Senior Judge Ezra… this will all get sorted out. And most of the Texas “evidence” will be bounced — as inadmissable.

Hilarious. But here’s a bit from the US’s 22 page federal trial court filing, lodged before Judge Ezra overnight:

…Letter from Gregory S. Davidson, Executive Clerk to the Governor of Texas, to the Secretary of State of Texas dated Dec. 16, 2022, enclosing Proclamation of same date signed by Governor Greg Abbott

Hearsay; Improper lay opinion

118.T Letter from Gregory S. Davidson, Executive Clerk to the Governor of Texas, to the Secretary of State of Texas dated Jan. 20, 2023, enclosing Proclamation of same date signed by Governor Greg Abbott

Hearsay; Improper lay opinion

118.U Letter from Gregory S. Davidson, Executive Clerk to the Governor of Texas, to the Secretary of State of Texas dated Feb. 20, 2023, enclosing Proclamation of same date signed by Governor Greg Abbott

Hearsay; Improper lay opinion….

Yep — there’s 22 pages full of that nonsense. MAGA TX Gov. Abbott will lose. Onward.

नमस्ते

Merck Q3 ’24: Beats At Revenue Line; The Rest Is Mostly In Line — With Charge For Daiichi Sankyo Deal; HPV Vaccine Sales A Little Light…

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While the stock is off a bit this morning on the NYSE, the truth is that none of this is a materially negative surprise.

So, this immateriality graphic here again appears. Soon enough, Merck will be trading back above $110 per share — you heard it here first. Here’s the latest from the Q3 2024 results disclosures:

…Merck on Thursday reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped expectations as the company saw strong sales from its top-selling cancer drug Keytruda, recently launched treatments and its animal health business.

But Merck’s vaccine that prevents cancer from HPV, the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S., posted another quarter of lighter-than-expected sales. Revenue from the shot, Gardasil, fell 11% compared to the year-earlier period, mainly due to lower demand in China.

The pharmaceutical giant narrowed its full-year sales forecast to a range of $63.6 billion to $64.1 billion, from a previous guidance of $63.4 billion to $64.4 billion….

Merck also lowered its adjusted profit guidance from a range of $7.72 to $7.77 per share, from a previous forecast of $7.94 to $8.04 per share. That updated outlook reflects a one-time charge of 24 cents per share related to business development deals with Curon Biopharmaceutical and Daiichi Sankyo….

And, speaking of vaccines — I hate to even mention it, but we must keep truth at the forefront. It seems some loons are claiming that Mpox Clade 1b infections are a “side effect” of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. This is insane, and has been debunked now by dozens of reputable researchers, including CIDRAP.

Onward — to enjoy unusually warm and sunny outdoor trick or treating parties with the grand nieces / munchkins!

नमस्ते

No Scott… Tangerine IS…The Garbage.

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Tonight, Johnson thinks Trump’s Cosplay in Wisconsin… means something.

It doesn’t.

Trump’s just… out of runway.

Nothing more. Scott knows it, too.

[Apparently, in the video footage of Tangerine entering the garbage truck, he twice misses the door handle — and nearly topples over, legs crossed — all while trying to step up, into the truck. That may be why this stunt matters. He’s a frail old fool.]

His people call US citizens / Puerto Ricans… “garbage”. And all else… is a diversion, by the boys.

That’s a fact.

Out.

Yes, Hinderaker — It Will Go Down To The Wire… But John Well-Knows: Trump’s… Stuck, In Swing States.

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This may be the most honest five sentences Hinderaker has written… in eight years, or so.

He is worried, because most Trumpers are too uneducated to understand polling generally, or these nascent presidential election betting markets — specifically. He knows that people betting money are usually… just handing it to the house. [Never more true than tonight — there is zero chance that Tangerine has an actual 65% chance of winning. But Vegas gets the vig, all along. Hilarious!]

So, in a sobering fashion — John writes, at lunchtime today:

…[Some] Trump supporters are feeling exultant, as the tide has been running, if only weakly, in his direction…. But if the polls are a guide, Trump’s momentum has slowed…[and is capped at 46.5% — while Kamala has cleared 50% repeatedly in the last few days].

The polls are telling us the election is too close to call, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe they are — all! — somehow undercounting Republican voters. That certainly isn’t what happened in 2022…. I think they… likely represent an effort to drive turnout in their base, and, as suggested above, to lay the groundwork for a Harris administration crackdown on [lawless, rioting] opponents….

So now — we wait. My vote has been cast, since last Friday. I suspect John’s has too.

In many places, more than half of all registered voters have already voted.

This means the “election day turnout” will have a good chance to be the deciding variable.

And, good weather is forecast — over almost all the nation for this coming Tuesday, and heavy turnouts… almost always tip — in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Buckle up boys!

Out.

Hard News: A Clade 1b Mpox Case Has Emerged Inside The UK’s Royal Free Hospital; Now Isolated…

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This is the first confirmed case (and unsurprisingly, it arrives via a traveler/tourist) inside Britain.

As we said with the Lassa Fever fatality, in Iowa yesterday, the risk to the local population is very, very small. But it needs to be… monitored. Here’s the Beeb, on it all:

…A single case of mpox… linked to the recent outbreak in parts of Africa, has been detected in the UK.

It is part of the Clade 1b outbreak, which appears to spread more easily between people. Mpox was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization in the summer.

The UK patient had recently been on holiday in at least one of the affected countries in Africa and began to feel sick 24 hours after flying home.

The patient developed flu-like symptoms on 22 October and a rash two days later.
An mpox rash of pus-filled lesions can last for up to a month. Other symptoms include fever, headaches and low energy.

The infected UK patient is being treated at the Royal Free Hospital’s specialist high consequence infectious diseases unit in London, where laboratory testing confirmed the infection was Clade 1b. This form of the virus has been causing mounting concern.
It appears able to spread more easily from person to person through close physical contact, including sex, than other types of mpox.

In Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda have all reported cases of Clade 1b mpox this year.
Its close relative Clade 1a is largely connected to exposure to infected animals or eating bush meat.

Clade 1b appears to be milder than 1a, although it’s difficult to know for certain because precise figures on the exact numbers of people infected are hard to pin down.

The patient’s close contacts, which include housemates, are being traced. This is thought to be fewer than 10 people.
“This is the first time we have detected this clade of mpox in the UK, though other cases have been confirmed abroad,” said Prof Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)…. “The risk to the UK population remains low, and we are working rapidly to trace close contacts and reduce the risk of any potential spread.”

Sweden, India and Germany have all detected cases of this strain of mpox linked to travel to affected countries….

Thankfully my girl was nowhere near the Royal Free, and is home safe for Halloween, as of last night, hale and hearty — after catching a British Airways jet yesterday noon-time, out of Heathrow. Grin… but we must always be… vigilant.

नमस्ते

Final Update: How Condor’s ’24 Calculations Have Narrowed Since August… Harris Still Wins.

~ condor ~ 2 Comments

The simplest way to do this is to just offer my current projected electoral college map, atop my prior one, from August.

She was riding a wave post convention — and since then, some Tangerine lies have dinged her lead. To be clear, I’ve taken Georgia out of her column, though I still expect she’ll win it — I do expect Tangerine voter intimidation and counting intimidation will at least delay the clear outcome there. I think both Michigan and Arizona will now be solidly blue — though Wisconsin may be closer than previously expected. It will fall in Kamala’s column though, in the end.

But yes — she will… win. She will.

Onward — and the prior August map:

There you have it. Grin.