Category: Uncategorized

Kamala Harris Shows A Strong (And Strengthening!) Trend Line — As (Excepting In FL) Tangerine Is… Fading.

~ condor ~ Leave a comment

To be sure, the election is very close — especially as to electoral college votes.

But now we are only 22 days away — and prior experience tells us that it will be unlikely that any major shift will occur in these last hours.

And so, on the popular vote, Kamala is likely to win by a margin of over 10 million votes.

Of course, Tangerine will (as a malign would-be despot) litigate all results in swing states. So we may not have a final (court ordered) winner until late December 2024.

But the outcome is pretty clear: Trump will lose. Here’s 538.com’s latest:

…The difference boils down to one thing: trends, not levels.

If you compare Harris’s margin over Trump in polls released Oct. 10 to the results of previous polls by the same pollsters in the same places, Harris’s margin has increased by an average of 0.4 percentage points. And according to our election model, which looks at differences in results among all pollsters to identify whether a firm leans to the left or the right, the polls from Emerson in particular have tended to underestimate Harris compared to polls with the same methodology (a mix of robocalls and online interviews) in the same geographies.

This means our starting point when looking at these new polls is that Harris is doing better than they indicate, by about a point on vote margin, and that she is either holding steady or gaining ground….

That sure sounds right… to me.

So you may safely ignore all of Hinderaker’s belchings.

Out.

Noon Eastern — On Monday — Is Europa Clipper Targeted Launch, Now…

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It may run a bit later, but could also very well go off right on time. [Given that the Powerline boys almost never say anything interesting or note-worthy, now… this will largely be bio-science and space science coverage, through past Election Day.] So it goes:

Weather is not expected to be a factor; and it seems the idea is to get the launch in ahead of the next tropical depression now forming and headed toward the Florida Atlantic coast. In any event, here’s the latest, from Kennedy Launch Center:

…NASA will provide live coverage of prelaunch and launch activities for Europa Clipper, the agency’s mission to explore Jupiter’s icy moon Europa. NASA now is targeting launch no earlier than 12:06 p.m. EDT, Monday, Oct. 14, on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Beyond Earth, Jupiter’s moon Europa is considered one of the solar system’s most promising potentially habitable environments. After an approximately 1.8-billion-mile journey, Europa Clipper will enter orbit around Jupiter in April 2030, where the spacecraft will conduct a detailed survey of Europa to determine whether the icy world could have conditions suitable for life. Europa Clipper is the largest spacecraft NASA has ever developed for a planetary mission.

It carries a suite of nine instruments along with a gravity experiment that will investigate an ocean beneath Europa’s surface, which scientists believe contains twice as much liquid water as Earth’s oceans….

Now you know — with a tough night in Boulder now in the books, and Travis Hunter (with what may be a shoulder separation injury) now perhaps not likely to play for a few weeks. There was also an injury to WR/Return Specialist Jimmy Horn, the fastest player on the team. No report on return dates yet for either. Ugh.

नमस्ते

UPDATE: No One In Close Contact (With Any Marburg Patient) May Leave Rwanda, Now — For 21 Days Minimum…

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This is, in my estimation, a sensible and moderate curtailment of personal liberties — to keep both Rwandans — and the wider world… safe. If a putative traveler wishes to board a plane or train, s/he must fill out a questionnaire, to determine if they’ve been in close proximity of a known Marburg case — and to then be tested. They must be symptom free for 21 days, before travel will be authorized by the Rwandan government authorities.

Of course, people will likely still slip across local interior borders unnoticed, on foot, or by car or scooter, but getting out into the wider world generally (and off-continent, certainly) requires a plane ride — or a very long train trek — so health ministers have now imposed a partial travel ban, forbidding anyone who has been exposed to the virus from leaving the country. [At least until they pass a 21 day “no symptoms” waiting period.]

This measured, prudent move seeks to stop the outbreak from spreading beyond its borders. And here is the latest on it all, from the UK’s Sun newspaper:

…An outbreak of Marburg virus, which is a close cousin to Ebola, was first confirmed in Rwanda at the end of last month.

The country has now imposed a partial travel ban, forbidding anyone who has been exposed to the virus from leaving the country.

The move seeks to stop the outbreak spreading beyond its borders.

People wanting to travel abroad from Rwanda will have complete a questionnaire within 24 hours of their departure to report suspicious symptoms, the Rwandan Ministry of Health said….

Do recall that last week, the US CDC began screening arriving Rwandan passengers for Marburg’s. Now you know… and separately, in at least five US states, the drug resistant mpox virus has been recorded, in small clusters.

In any event, onward, on a glorious fall weekend morning — and evening, with Buffs in action at home. Smile.

नमस्ते

Well — Not Surprising. But Now, Martin Shkreli Will Be Required To Appear And Testify Under Oath, In Brooklyn’s Federal Court (Re Wu- Theft) — On November 5, 2024. Oops!

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So — just as we said, Martin is now in very hot water.

He will be live on the stand, with contempt for perjury, clearly on the table. The able USDC Judge Chen will not tolerate any more shenanigans. And jailing is also a common outcome, in a contempt hearing like this one.

Here’s her order, just entered, in full text — on the docket:

…SCHEDULING ORDER:

The Court is in receipt of [38] Defendant’s supplemental affidavit and [39] Plaintiff’s letter in response. In order to resolve the deficiencies in Defendant Shkreli’s affidavits, the Court will hold a hearing on November 5, 2024, at 11:00 AM in Courtroom 4F North at which Defendant Shkreli will be called upon to testify under oath regarding the copying and distribution of the Album’s tracks. Both parties will be permitted to question Defendant Shkreli on these issues.

Ordered by Judge Pamela K. Chen on 10/11/2024….

Hilarious. The cross-examination is going to be devastating (for Martin’s chances of remaining a free man). Maybe he shouldn’t have… lied — in sworn statements, in the Wu- matter. Just a thought.

नमस्ते

Now At Least One Mpox Case, In Zambia — Lukasa. Tough News.

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This sort of country to country spread is to be expected, where as here there has been a delay — in the vaccinations program. Even so, it is discouraging nonetheless — that we now must now face an outbreak in a new geography.

Here is the latest, from Reuters — while we await word on the Clade — II or 1b. . . on this first case. The latter would be the more concerning:

…Zambia’s health ministry on Thursday reported the country’s first case of mpox, without disclosing which variant had been recorded…. [Mpox was] detected in a 32-year-old Tanzanian national who arrived in Zambia in early September, before travelling around the southern African country and developing symptoms including muscle aches, fatigue and a sore throat on Oct. 2.

“Given the patient’s extensive travel history and interactions at multiple points in Zambia, there is heightened risk of local transmission and potential cross-border spread,” the health ministry said in a statement, adding that contact tracing was underway.

The World Health Organization in August declared mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years, as a new variant of the viral infection spread from Democratic Republic of Congo to neighbouring African countries.

The new clade 1b strain has caused global concern as it seems to spread more easily though routine close contact….

Onward, and now you know — he is likely being treated in a rural clinic, and that’s presumably to keep him away from the densely populated capital of Lukasa, and its overcrowded hospitals.

नमस्ते

Noerr-Pennington Doctrine Remains Controlling Law In Merck’s Third Circuit US Court of Appeals: Mumps Vaccine Suits, Dismissed.

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In general — under controlling US law and regulations — there are very few avenues to sue makers of life saving vaccines.

That was a considered Congressional policy decision, over a half century ago — to encourage the provision of what are very low margin, but vital, vaccines to school children nationwide. [Rahway withdrew this vaccine in 2022 — but we’ve been following various versions of this vaccine litigation since early 2010.]

Here is the latest on that piece of ongoing litigation. We will wait to see if the plaintiffs appeal to the Supremes, in the next 90 days.

…[Merck has won an appeal, that it is] immune from an antitrust lawsuit accusing it of misleading regulators about the effectiveness of its mumps vaccine in order to ward off competition, a federal appeals court ruled on Monday.

A 2-1 panel of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that Merck is protected by a legal doctrine known as Noerr-Pennington immunity, which states that parties cannot face antitrust claims for petitioning the government even if they are advocating for government action that would reduce competition….

The plaintiffs said that Merck deliberately misled the FDA in order to prevent competition from GSK, violating the federal Sherman Act and state consumer protection laws. U.S. District Judge Chad Kenney in Philadelphia last year granted Merck summary judgment on the state law claims but let the Sherman Act claim go forward, and Merck appealed.

But the majority of the 3rd Circuit panel, reversing Kenney’s ruling, found in Monday’s non-precedential opinion that Noerr-Pennington immunity held even if Merck’s actions were “unethical.” “The record contains troubling evidence that Merck sought to extend its apparent monopoly by misrepresenting facts about its mumps vaccines on the FDA-approved drug labeling,” Circuit Judge Tamika Montgomery-Reeves wrote for the panel.

“But those allegedly false claims were the result of Merck’s genuine and successful petitioning of the FDA….”

Now you know. Do “enjoy” the likely spotty cell coverage today — but also marvel at the citizen-generated Northern Light pics… rolling in at local weather stations, and web-sites — all day! [See the one at left, from my baby sister, high in the Rockies overnight!]

नमस्ते

Hinderaker Says Eating Doritos… Is Anti-Christian?!

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It’s official: Hinderaker is… fully senile.

He burps up about seven paragraphs to claim that a meme-parody video — by Michigan Governor Whitmer… means to mock X-tians.

Yikes.

This despite the fact that he himself points out that it is intended as, and functions as, a parody of a well-known non-religious meme.

Folks that’s the pungent smell… of desperation in the air – over at Powerline.

It isn’t worth another moment’s thought. [Just as his latest purported soothsaying on the polls… isn’t, either.]

Out.

Right On Cue — ANOTHER “Solar Max” Flare / Wave, Coursing Past Earth, Tonight And Into Later Tomorrow…

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Earlier this week, we mentioned a press briefing — coming on the 15th — as to this current solar max cycle (about half-done) — and what to expect, from here on. Not to put too fine a point on it… but, expect more… of this.

And for beleaguered Floridians, this could not come at a worse time. The cell disruptions are expected to be mostly a parallel or so north of Florida, but people in Tennessee, and perhaps even Oxford, Mississippi may see the aurora tonight, if the skies are clear.

Here’s the latest, from NPR, NCAR and NOAA:

…A severe solar storm is headed to Earth that could stress power grids even more as the U.S. deals with major back-to-back hurricanes, space weather forecasters said Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a severe geomagnetic storm watch for Thursday into Friday after an outburst from the sun was detected earlier this week. Such a storm could temporarily disrupt power and radio signals.

NOAA has notified operators of power plants and orbiting spacecraft to take precautions. It also alerted the Federal Emergency Management Agency about possible power disruptions, as the organization copes with the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Helene and gears up for Hurricane Milton barreling across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida….

Now you know. And, onward. . . go Buffs [also a home to NOAA and NCAR], let’s beat those Cats, from K-State in two nights — in Boulder!

Between now and then — and always — let’s be excellent to one another — even as Tangerine floods the tee-vee advertising spaces with odious lies about our fellow Americans, many of whom have lawfully now migrated here.

He’s to be… summarily… ignored.

नमस्ते

The Next Step, In Our Learnings — About “Whacking” Asteroids Off-Course — To Potentially Protect Earth… Is Now Under-Sail, From ESA and JAXA…

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Due to other commitments, we are slightly delayed in getting this ESA good news out. We covered the DART mission closely, and now the European Space Agency has successfully launched a follow on analysis mission. Excellent!

The follow on Hera journey into deep space is being overseen from ESA’s facilities in Darmstadt, Germany. “Hera is finally on its way to Didymos; today we are writing a new page of space history,” said Hera mission manager Ian Carnelli. “This deep space mission took shape from contract signing to launch in only four years, a testimony to the hard work and dedication of the Hera team across ESA, European industry, science, and the Japanese space agency JAXA”. Here’s the full press packet, on it all:

…ESA’s first planetary defence spacecraft has departed planet Earth. The Hera mission is headed to a unique target among the more than 1.3 million known asteroids in our Solar System – the only body to have had its orbit shifted by human action – to solve lingering mysteries associated with its deflection.

By sharpening scientific understanding of the ‘kinetic impact’ technique of asteroid deflection, Hera aims to make Earth safer. The mission is part of a broader ambition to turn terrestrial asteroid impacts into a fully avoidable class of natural disaster.

Developed as part of ESA’s Space Safety programme and sharing technological heritage with the Agency’s Rosetta comet hunter, Hera lifted off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, USA, on 7 October at 10:52 local time (16:52 CEST, 14:52 UTC) with its solar arrays deploying about one hour later.

The automobile-sized Hera will carry out the first detailed survey of a ‘binary’ — or double-body — asteroid, 65803 Didymos, which is orbited by a smaller body, Dimorphos. Hera’s main focus will be on the smaller of the two, whose orbit around the larger asteroid was changed by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, demonstrating asteroid deflection by kinetic impact, in 2022….

This is truly an amazing time to be alive, and following all the life-sciences. And space-science.

That said, do keep Florida (post Hurricane Milton) in your morning meditations, and if you are in a position to donate to relief efforts there, the American Red Cross is a good vehicle for that. Onward.

नमस्ते

Hinderaker Should Heed His Own Advice — On Ukraine — As To Israel, As Well.

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But first, John lies overnight — in claiming he’s been a steadfast supporter of Ukraine.

We documented in real time, his posts advocating the Putin influenced positions there, in the early days of the invasion and slaughters. And see here. See at right, as well.

But my central point this morning… is to ask why he says this is the PREFERRED answer, in Ukraine [but not in… Gaza(?)]:

…Like almost all Americans, I was on Ukraine’s side when Russia launched its invasion [Ed. Note: this is a straight-ahead lie!], and I still am. But two and a half years down the road, one can only wonder whether Western support for Ukraine has mostly had the effect of getting a lot of people killed, while very little has been accomplished on the ground.

Some kind of settlement needs to be reached. The obvious question is, could an acceptable settlement have been accomplished a long time ago, and saved a great many lives?….

Yeh. Great idea, senile old Hinder-puss. Truly top notch — first rate… as churlish grandstanding goes.

Now do Gaza. And no, I won’t give this nonsense (his grand-standing, to no practical effect) another pixel’s worth of space.

Out.