The Idea Of US Govt. “Owning” Part Of TikTok Is Likely A Non-Starter…

The manifold Constitutional and antitrust issues it would create are simply… not things Tangerine 2.0 is capable of comprehending. [Moreover, Xi almost certainly won’t allow it.]

But in a perhaps mostly whimsical effort to “square the circle“, here — an entity (appropriately!) called Perplexity has tonight revised its prior longshot bid to provide that, once it has raised $300 billion in an IPO(!)… it would transfer non-voting stock to the US government equal to a 50% ownership interest stake.

I assume all this is at least partly whimsical, given that the company is a start up — and mentions a $300 billion IPO, as a condition to meeting Tangerine’s request. Honestly, even Tangerine is not that naïve… Perplexity will never be valued in a way to allow a $300 billion IPO.

Here’s what is known — about this likely publicity stunt of a “bid”:

…U.S. search engine startup Perplexity AI has revised the merger proposal it had submitted to TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance to create a new entity combining Perplexity and TikTok U.S., a person familiar with the proposal told Reuters on Sunday….

The U.S. government would own up to half of the new structure once it goes through an IPO of a valuation of at least $300 billion….

Okay then. What it lacks in serious rigor, it more than makes up for… in entertainment value, I guess. Onward, to a sunny Monday morning in the markets, then. Grin.

नमस्ते

Well… Not To Go ALL Tin-Foil Hatted, Here… BUT…

To be clear, this is all… absolutely… trivial at this point. There is no percentage in alleging election ’24 fraud by Elon, or people he could have hired, at high rates.

But as it is increasingly seeming likely that Musk himself engineered some sort of bot attack or hack, if you will, to get his own account listed as one of the world’s top players in some nonsense video game online (called Diablo)…

Would it really be so hard to believe that he was able to hire people to edit files in a few key Democratic stronghold cities, to reduce turn out just enough to allow the red collar counties to overrun them, statewide?

I do not think it feasible to bump up red rural districts — as each is too small, and would be noticed. [And would involve (impractically) over one thousand separate hack teams….]

But if one could cut/decrease Democratic turnout, in three or four large cities by even 3% each — that would have been enough to flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And Nevada (via Vegas, Milwaukee and Philly, respectively).

Did it happen? We will likely never know.

In the mean time — we will all just hunker down and wait — wait for Tangerine 2.0 / Musk bromance to… implode. And it will — by Summer. Then Musk May start his own “dirty tricks” — on the Donald, and his acolytes. Hilarious.

Onward.

While Powerline Stays Mum On The Unraveling Gaza Cease-Fire, Mirengoff Notes Some Of The “Whys”…

The whole of the latest Israel thing is looking to re-ignite, and we all know Tangerine 2.0 simply lacks any of the aplomb needed, to defuse the situation. Score that as a new Bibi/Tangerine… loss.

Trump’s “clean out Gaza” — and have Jordan and Egypt accept all former Gazans, as refugees… is so naive, and frankly silly — as to make even the low information voters… laugh. The man is manifestly incompetent — on the world stage, in every note. [Paul and John and Scott and Steve well know it — but they are too cowardly to say so. Each of them felt the Israel peace deal was too weak (for Israel, as hard Right radicals) and now its clear that Trump and Bibi are losing a grip of even that modest, temporary compromise. All it means is more Israelis will die, as will many more innocent Gazans. Awful.]

And so it is, that Mirengoff (while also avoiding any mention of how Tangerine 2.0 is going to definitively ruin, whatever peace might have looked like, for Bibi…) this morning notes that there are in fairly broad swaths of the mainstream (non-MAGA) GOP, people who are going to make Trump’s life… complicated, here at home, as well:

…Although McConnell’s vote [against Hegseth] had no significance. . . it might have important implications for other nominees. By voting “no,” the former Majority Leader confirmed that he is no longer an ally of President Trump, a man he seems strongly to dislike….

Well… duh.

While Paul is right (but is belaboring the obvious the rest of us have seen for at least four long years), I write primarily to say… the likely overall outcome of a second Tangerine sitting… is going to be a whole lot of side-ways muddling.

His grand vision is hate, only. And that will ultimately fall of its own bitter weight.

Three decades from now, historians will look back and say those MAGA voters deserved what they got — good and hard, too.

The rest of us?

We just tried to ignore him. What a putz. Out.

Power Alley: Fierce Quotes Leerink — Merck Expected To See Stronger Ramp In Winrevair™ — In 2025, Multi-Blockbuster Status Coming…

We long ago predicted that Winrevair™ — for PAH — would be a multi-billion dollar franchise for Rahway. I was a little puzzled in the second half of 2024, when it seemed to initially be slow going.

The treatment should be a breakthrough, and as more real world post approval data flows in, it seems that maybe some side-effects are not quite as prevalent as the initial, smaller clinical trials suggest they might be. So all of that is very good news, for Merck. Here’s just a bit from FiercePharma — do go read it all, from Friday past:

…Based on a survey of cardiologist and pulmonologists treating patients for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), analysts at Leerink Partners believe that Merck’s Winrevair “should have strong uptake growth” in 2025.

The treatment, which was the primary target in Merck’s $11.5 billion acquisition of Acceleron in 2021, logged $149 million in sales in the third quarter. It was a solid but underwhelming performance for the long-awaited drug that Merck has projected will reach $3 billion in peak sales….

[T]he Leerink survey indicates that the risk of patients bleeding as a side effect of Winrevair is lower than that portrayed in a registrational trial that set the drug up for its FDA nod in March 2024.

“The real-world safety is better than expected,” Leerink wrote while acknowledging that the data need to mature.

“In 2024 we believe sentiment regarding bleeding risk and early market access challenges likely contributed to a slower Winrevair ramp, as many respondents expressed caution given the high bleed rate reported in clinical trials and were quick to discontinue or pause therapy,” Leerink wrote….

So — we will reiterate our belief that a year from now, Merck ought to be trading closer to $130 on the NYSE, than the high $90s of today. Onward, smiling… be excellent to one another.

नमस्ते

Hayward Doesn’t Know That Many INDICTED — And Disbarred — Attorneys Lose Banking Privileges?!

That lame dolt Steve Hayward speciously says it is “his politics” that got his checking accounts closed.

No. It is that he used his law license to commit felonies (helping in falsifying the 2020 election outcome — by deceit — including forgeries), according to a speaking indictment in Arizona.

It is a sensible (and common) practice, at big money center banks, to close such lawyers’ checking accounts — due to the extreme dangers their deceitful conduct represents.

Lawyers willing to tell sophisticated felonious lies… may easily get even a large bank in very deep trouble with regulators — and be PR nightmares. May injure hundreds. May engender… insurrections.

So, Hayward is knowingly full of crap, in suggesting that his political views got him “debarked”.

No, it was the conduct (the same conduct that got him disbarred, you putz.

Out.

UPDATE On That Stupid Fitton Strike Suit, Against Reparations, Here In My Home Town…

Yesterday, whilst we were busy doing other things, the City added to the weight of authority that holds Tom Fitton and his goofy solicited “plaintiffs” should be bounced for lack of having any concrete injury — called “lack of standing“.

The City pointed the able USDC Judge in Chicago to a decision in the Fourth Circuit, earlier in the month called Hierholzer, and here is what the City offered about that decision:

…In Hierholzer, the Fourth Circuit affirmed the district court’s dismissal for lack of standing a claim that the Small Business Administration’s Section 8(a) Business Development Program unlawfully discriminated against the plaintiffs on the basis of race.

The district court’s dismissal was based, in part, on the plaintiffs’ inability to plead facts sufficient to show that they were “able and ready” to participate in the program but for the program’s racial consideration because they could not meet the program’s race neutral requirements. Id. at *8. The Fourth Circuit affirmed.

Noting that because “‘the party invoking federal jurisdiction[]bears the burden of establishing’ standing… [plaintiffs] were required to plead facts to support that they would be eligible for the program” by meeting both its requirements that considered race and those that were race neutral. Id. “Because [plaintiffs] failed to do so, [plaintiffs] have not demonstrated that they suffered an injury in fact….”

The chuckleheads who brought this silly claim will (despite Tangerine’s endlessly hateful burping) be dumped out on their ears. Onward, grinning. . . [people who don’t own property, pay taxes locally, or… live here, cannot dictate how we choose, via our own city council decisions, to spend our own real estate tax money — in repair for wrongs previously done. Full stop.]

Now, enjoy “He Lives In You”:

नमस्ते

Okay, Hinderaker — You Own His Coming Screw Ups, Or Worse. He’s Your Drinking (Drunk) Buddy.

So never in our history has the Veep had to break a tie, with 50 voting “no” (including three Senators from Tangerine 2.0’s own GOP party!) — on any Defense Sec’y. nominee.

Never. Until tonight.

When he implodes (and he will… implode) — Hinderaker, his malfeasance is on your account.

Full stop. Let us just hope his incompetence (or drunkenness, or lewd public behavior or forcible assaults) don’t somehow provoke another hot war — one that gets US troops killed.

Let’s hope he won’t try to run Defense at all. Let’s hope he just crawls inside a bottle at the office by noon every day, and sleeps it off all afternoon — 52 weeks a year. [Until Tangerine fires him — for some likely imaginary slight, that is. You know that’s how this will end, if you’re honest.]

I mean c’mon man — he bankrupted the small charity he ran — with 100 staffers. He’s now the head of 2.8 million employees, including over 1.29 million active servicemen and women… and must administer the largest single component of the federal deficit. Damn.

Out.

Courtesy My Erstwhile Anon(s).: Here Is At Least One Take On Tangerine 2.0’s “Anti-Science” Bias — In His Executive Order Passels, This Week.

It has taken us a moment here, to find free time to put this and an all-new graphic together — but it is courtesy of my long reading / suffering Anon.(s)… thanks go to them for showing me it. I likely never would have seen it, in the blizzard of Sharpie scribbles this week alone.

So it is, that Trump/Vance (and Musk, clearly!) want to prevent real life sciences researchers and policy experts from sharing what they’ve learned — with one another. And, to stymie the award of a very large number of already green-lit, and pending federal life science research grants. [To the extent that Tangerine 2.0 wishes to emphasize differing research goals, that is within his ambit, at 1600 Penn.]

But the wholesale mothballing of ALL science efforts, for disease mitigation, for example — or new mRNA vaccines work, in particular — should be beyond his remit. This agency at right — and other related agencies — were created, and specifically funded by long-ago Congressional Acts. So the argument runs that only the US House, by legislation (as keeper of the purse strings) can authorize what amounts to a near-shut-down. Here’s the latest story on what’s happening:

…Confusion and anxiety is rippling through the US health-research community this week following Donald Trump taking office as the 47th US president. His administration has abruptly cancelled research-grant reviews, travel and trainings for scientists inside and outside the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the world’s largest public biomedical funder. Adding to the worry: the Trump team appears to have deleted entire webpages about diversity programmes and diversity-related grants from the agency’s site….

Researchers who spoke to Nature say that although a short, daylong pause in communications at US agencies has occurred in the past when new administrations have started, to reorient strategy, the reach and length of the Trump team’s — it is set to last until at least 1 February — is unprecedented. Without advisory-committee meetings, the NIH cannot issue research grants, temporarily freezing 80% of the agency’s US$47-billion budget that funds research across the country and beyond.

“I’ve never seen anything like this before,” says Carole LaBonne, a developmental biologist at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, who has received funding from the agency for more than 20 years….

As we’ve previously said — to the extent he targets DEI programs (or people), there exists strong precedent for challenging him in the courts, but this portends nothing near the slam dunk thumping that his preposterous “end birthright citizenship” Sharpie saw. The law here is in fact… murkier. So the focus has to be… on getting the word out, over the din/chaos/lies of what he always serves up.

Unfortunately, that is going to be a tall order, well into February / March. Damn.

Onward, just the same.

नमस्ते

Interesting — Parts Of This Brooks Opinion Are Worth Reading — And Pondering…

From time to time, I read the NYT opinion page. And to be sure — I rarely agree wholeheartedly with what I see there. But that is the beauty of a free America: I can think (and more importantly, decide) for myself.

I am more than a little worried that many of my fellow Americans, those cheering Tangerine 2.0… lack the critical thinking skills to evaluate what they hear, and decide whether it rings true. Just see this, as one poignant example (these people believe he keeps promises?!).

Well… I cannot help them. And while I disagree about Brooks’ closing advice to Democrats (it is largely a troll operation / subterfuge — to build an imagined “glide path”, for a future Vance run/win — if he’s the nominee in 2028. This, as Brooks purports to say… a more competent authoritarian is what America needs. Not). I will reprint some of what he wrote, in spite of this.

Here’s what David Brooks had to say — and I will confess that at least half of it rings… pretty true.

…Over the past few months, and especially in his second Inaugural Address, Trump has gone all 19th century on us. He seems to find in this period everything he likes: tariffs, Manifest Destiny, seizing land from weaker nations, mercantilism, railroads, manufacturing and populism. Many presidents mention George Washington or Abraham Lincoln in their inaugurals. Who was the immortal Trump cited? William McKinley….

The problem with populism and the whole 19th-century governmental framework is that it didn’t work. Between 1825 and 1901 we had 20 presidencies. We had a bunch of one-term presidents; voters kept throwing the incumbents out because they were not happy with the way government was performing. The last three decades of that century saw a string of brutalizing recessions and depressions that profoundly shook the country….

“Populist thought showed an unusually strong tendency to account for relatively impersonal events in highly personal terms.” In other words, they thought they could solve the disruptions of industrialization if only they could find the evil conspirators who were responsible for every ill. Their diagnoses were simple-minded, their rhetoric over the top; their proposals, Hofstadter noted, wandered “over the border between reality and impossibility.” Sound familiar?….

Here’s how America recovered: Populist indignation finally got professionalized. In the 20th century, members of the progressive movement took the problems the populists were rightly angry about and built the institutions that were required to address them effectively — like the Food and Drug Administration, the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Reserve. Populists had trouble thinking institutionally; the progressives, who were well trained, morally upright, self-disciplined, disgusted by corruption, intellectually rigorous (and sometimes priggish and arrogant) did not have that problem….

I would tell the American people that Donald Trump is right about a lot of things. He’s accurately identified problems on issues like inflation, the border and the fallout from cultural condescension that members of the educated class have been too insular to anticipate. But when it comes to building structures to address those problems — well, the man is just hapless and incompetent….

Thanks David. But that last bit… looks a lot like laying the groundwork for a Vance nomination in 2028. Hard pass.

We Democrats are not in the hurt you imagine us to be — or the one you spin to your MAGA masses. We are coming for your boy — peaceably and rationally. He will have imploded by 2026 (if not much sooner). We will then hold the Congress.

And Vance will be as relevant to the conversation… as Mike Pence or Dan Quayle is, now.

Y A W N.

Out.

Lilly “Fell Off A Cliff” In Q4 2024 — On Lobby Spend — And This, With Difficult Govt. Payor Negotiations On Its Weight Loss Franchises, Ahead… Odd.

Yes, it is an election year. Yes, Tangerine 2.0’s influence is most chaotic in the days BEFORE he assumes office — as once in, the courts (as we’ve seen) may pretty promptly rein in the worst of him. But still… only spending under $200,000 in Q4 seemed. . . odd, for Lilly (see second chart — below right).

Thus, the list of what it bent Congressional ears on… is correlatively shorter than that seen in Q3 2024, to be certain. Anyway, here it is, for the $190,000 in spending, all in:

…▲ Issues related to intellectual property protection and market access within current trade negotiations. Canada IP; USMCA implementation; Mexico patent linkage; Special 301; Trade talks: US-Japan, US-China, US-EU, US-UK, US-India, and US-Brazil….

▲ Patient protection; Pharmaceutical supply chain issues and shortages; Drug pricing, coverage, value, access and quality; Transparency; Intellectual property; Health insurance accessibility; Implementation of the “Inflation Reduction Act” (HR.5376); Prescription drug approval; Affordable Insulin Now Act (S.954/HR.1488), The INSULIN Act; Policy matters related to Artificial Intelligence in health care….

▲ Intellectual property; 340B Program; Medicare & Medicaid prescription drug reimbursement, coverage and value; Implementation of the “Inflation Reduction Act” (HR.5376); CMS National Coverage Determination on Alzheimer’s disease; The INSULIN Act….

▲ Multi-lateral threats to IP and the biopharmaceutical industry; Drug importation; Prescription drug value, access and quality….

▲ Pharmaceutical intellectual property issues….

▲ Implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; Domestic manufacturing tax incentives; Expensing of research and development costs; Global minimum tax; Pension and retirement benefit issues; round-tripping [Ed. Note: what exactly is meant by this? A “donut hole” derivative?!]….

▲ Hospital discounts; 340B program; Prescription drug value, access, quality and compliance with Drug Quality and Safety Act….

Now you know — onward grinning — and scratching my head — as to what Lilly’s lobbying team means by “round tripping” [also, at the vast bump in traffic, out of Lilly’s HQ in the last forty-eight hours]. Here you go, folks! Smile.

Updated: if “round tripping” does not refer to US pricing of pharmaceuticals, but instead refers to the questionable tax minimization strategy of multi-nationals, generally — in moving IP to low tax jurisdictions, reporting vast income there, but then deploying the accumulated capital back into the US, to pay dividends on the Holdco (or to lend money to it) thus effectively repatriating the earnings, to build new factories, etc. (effectively tax nearly-free), while avoiding formal repatriation taxes… well, the company should be MUCH more transparent about it being a tax strategy that some it Congress may seek to curtail or end, entirely. So far, Tangerine 2.0 is completely mum on that topic (he very likely won’t understand it, when it is explained to him in small words, pictures and short sentences, some months from now, anyway!). Trump seems content to let PhRMA do as it pleases, at the moment. I guess that’s good news for Lilly — and the pharma majors.

नमस्ते