Said another way, assuming Harris | Walz simply holds on to the blue states where they are already wildly ahead, they only need win TWO of the SEVEN swing states, to close Tangerine out — entirely in the Electoral College math / results. And it is a certainty now that she will win the popular vote. She’s now pulling definitively ahead in five — three more than she needs. That’s a sizeable margin of safety. Yup.
It really is just about all over — but for the shouting (barring a debate catastrophe, I guess). Here’s the latest:
…According to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey, released on August 14, when third party candidates are included, Harris is leading Trump in five of the seven battleground states. In May 2024, Trump was leading Biden in six of the states, while he and Biden were tied in one.
The report shows that Harris is two points ahead of Trump overall across the seven states, on 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, while she is two points ahead in North Carolina and Michigan, four points ahead in Arizona, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Nevada, Trump is five points ahead, while they are tied in Georgia.
Across all seven states, Harris has reduced Trump’s margins from May 2024. The biggest swing is in North Carolina, where Harris has wiped out Trump’s 8 point lead and is now 2 points ahead, on 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. Harris has also reduced Trump’s lead in Nevada by 3 points….
And now… we see that most sensible adults will not vote for a felon. Not surprising, in the least… we’ve watched the Trump signs disappear from lawns all over Arizona in the last three winter breaks. He has lost that state, to be certain — and Rasmussen’s over-sampling of GOP households left them… effectively… blind — to it.
[Fine. Give Tangerine ID, MT, WY, FL, TX, MS, AL and even the swing states of GA — and NV. He still loses (as the states he will carry, excepting Florida, are very sparsely populated — game over!), by a sizeable margin, in the Electoral College, now.]
Indeed, and moreover, I expect to see Kamala get a new ~5% bump, nationwide, coming out of the convention in Chicago, late next week — all good news. Out.
नमस्ते
Powerline Lies... 