Herd Immunity: ~70% Of USA, Or… About 230 Million People, John.

“Lil’ Mister” Hinderaker offers a profoundly fact-challenged “hopey” narrative this evening: he takes some uncertain UK “study” results, in a small, isolated sub-geography, and (irresponsibly) wonders aloud whether the US has almost reached herd immunity, tonight. In a word: Nope.

The probability that he “could be right” is… less than one one hundredth of one per cent. [But I do get it, John, you and Paul are feeling at least a little… bad, about being so lethally, completely… wrong, about the novel COVID-19 virus. From day one to this very day. On literally every dimension. So now you subscribe to an even more feckless version of Trump's "hope-ium“? Charming.]

Here are the actual facts, as known thus far. Read about it.

Of perhaps greatest import, though, is the notion that it seems “immunity by the viral infection” route may only be temporary. That is, there are numerous reported cases of “re-infection.” They have been rigorously documented and vetted.

And so… it may take… vaccination, with mRNA based vaccines, like the Moderna candidate — to achieve permanent immunity.

We are at a known 3.5 million exposed, tonight, John. So… as to your “hope-uim“, we only need to infect about 227 million more people. If even only one per cent of those infected get the serious symptoms version of the virus, and/or die, we will need to see about 2.3 million serious cases, or deaths.

We are just under 140,000 tonight — so we only need to kill about 2.26 million more people, John.

As I say… charming.

Not.