John’s Compadre Runs A Fact-Based Counter, To His Lunancy — Right ATOP Powerline…

Finally.

A Harvard MD/PhD and reader of PowerLine… is allowed space — on PowerLine, itself — to tell the truth, thus:

“…I do not believe that we are overreacting to COVID-19. We are seeing a highly transmissible disease (as high as 100-fold transmission rate, averaging 4-fold in Chinese data with the best estimates, but almost certainly higher) with a 1 percent to 2 percent mortality across
large populations. That would suggest the possibility of 3 million to 6 million deaths in the US if we got to 300 million infections, and we could. We will likely have far fewer deaths than this, but a stronger, earlier response would have saved more. And a stronger response today could still save far more people than a more mild response….

Until we have treatments and vaccines, preventing transmission is the only way to go. Every blocked transmission could be a life saved—or many lives, given how transmissible the virus is. And every person-to-person interaction that we don’t have could be a new case of COVID19 prevented….”

That’s at least some sanity, making a comeback.

Two hours later, though — John is right back to his… bat-shittery. Ugh.

He impliedly thinks deaths should primarily be evaluated by what the dead might have added to the US economy, had they lived. And since many of the dead will be over 75 [more a drain on society, than a boon to it, money-wise], he sees it as acceptable to prefer commerce — over human life.

But he “gets there” with wildly wrong math. He [completely without any epidemiological or biocience training, and without any real evidence — thus, wrongly] “foresees” fewer than 80,000 deaths in the US. Just a heavy flu year.

He is certainly wrong — too low — by at least 300 PER CENT — and, as the doctor from Harvard suggests, above… perhaps by over 40 FOLD.

Not so sure about his economics-first analysis… if even only one million are dead — when the dust finally settles.

And my central point, for weeks now, is that John is utterly UNQUALIFIED to offer an opinion. He would not take the doctor’s word — on a complex federal cross-motion question — so, do not take John’s, on this life and death prediction.

Out.

Rest in peace — and in power, brother.

AND… trust the doctor — a real doctor.