We will be are now back, to explain, but see this 2013 backgrounder.

We were put in mind of this, because a long time reader was checking up on our older (2012-2014) predictions, as to specific stock bets, long and short, in the life sciences vertical.

This one in particular was pretty obvious to anyone who is versed in… the math of finance. Add to it, that the successive crews of management, and board seats… were mostly known for over-levering assets, in order to pay out what amounted to wasting dividends to private equity investors, and then often filing a chapter if all the rosy predictions didn’t turn out as planned. [And that is almost exactly what happened to Valeant — as it became Bausch Health.]

Here in 2024, nearly a full decade later, a renewed team is going to split the biz into a revamped B+L brand, and leave the lower margin businesses (in a remain-co, called “Health”)… to likely whither and die. You could look at the symbol “BHC” and read all the 2024 coverage on it. Or… you could just re-read anything I ever wrote here, about Brent Saunders and / or Fast Fred Hassan.

Same old; same old. Here’s the chart, for the record — now, more than a decade’s worth of “paths, diverging in the wood“:

…[T]he [Bausch Health company has endured a] shocking decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 72% in the last three years. So we’re relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.

Since Bausch Health Companies has shed US $136 million from its value in the past 7 days, let’s see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business’ economics….

[Confidential Hint Dept.: it hasn’t (as to the first) and it has been, as to the second. Cheers!] Onward.

नमस्ते