This may be the most honest five sentences Hinderaker has written… in eight years, or so.

He is worried, because most Trumpers are too uneducated to understand polling generally, or these nascent presidential election betting markets — specifically. He knows that people betting money are usually… just handing it to the house. [Never more true than tonight — there is zero chance that Tangerine has an actual 65% chance of winning. But Vegas gets the vig, all along. Hilarious!]

So, in a sobering fashion — John writes, at lunchtime today:

…[Some] Trump supporters are feeling exultant, as the tide has been running, if only weakly, in his direction…. But if the polls are a guide, Trump’s momentum has slowed…[and is capped at 46.5% — while Kamala has cleared 50% repeatedly in the last few days].

The polls are telling us the election is too close to call, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe they are — all! — somehow undercounting Republican voters. That certainly isn’t what happened in 2022…. I think they… likely represent an effort to drive turnout in their base, and, as suggested above, to lay the groundwork for a Harris administration crackdown on [lawless, rioting] opponents….

So now — we wait. My vote has been cast, since last Friday. I suspect John’s has too.

In many places, more than half of all registered voters have already voted.

This means the “election day turnout” will have a good chance to be the deciding variable.

And, good weather is forecast — over almost all the nation for this coming Tuesday, and heavy turnouts… almost always tip — in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Buckle up boys!

Out.