Unrelated trivia, at the top, though: it seems Powerline is being hit with porno-themed ads… in all its comment fields! That is hilarious, as the site refuses to let people swear in comments (I was banned there over a decade ago for it — thus this site!)… and regularly claims to be near absolutist, on free expression. And these are presumably paying the boys’ service provider, for the ads — and sharing the $$$ with the boys! So, for now — if you comment at Powerline — you get to see some very graphic porn.

It couldn’t happen to nicer… guys. [Pretty clear it is a cyber-attack campaign against the site’s overall odious racism and sexism.] Now the main topic:

I have repeatedly said that Merck got a good deal when it bought all of Acceleron for $11.5 billion in 2021. That was smart deal-making. Now, for just one lead biologic from that stable, Merck is pricing the PAH therapy so that it will conservatively generate revenue of around $2 billion dollars a year on the about 40,000 patients — from this franchise, alone.

Women will literally die, without this breakthrough drug (much like Keytruda™ / pembrolizumab). As the graphic indicates, if we very conservatively guess that Merck only achieves 20 percent market penetration in the first five years, it will get back the entirety of what it paid for all of Acceleron — in cash. Everything after that is pure profit. And if it reaches a larger portion of the patients here and overseas, in time — it will make over 100X on its investment — before the patents expire.

Yes, I am a capitalist — dyed in the wool. But this seems… unduly excessive.

I am long Merck stock — and I support the immense scientific advances — life saving advances, in fact — it generates. [And of course, a much better candidate could emerge at BMS, Amgen or Abbott or Baxter… but that is no excuse for gouging, today. And this does look like… gouging, to my experienced eye.]

But seriously — Merck should be looking more often at math that pays back over the 20 years of the patent life. Not payback in the first five years. With great ability… comes equally great… responsibility.

That is to say, Mr. Davis ought to be careful, that his first mover advantage in various arenas… is not blunted by Executive Order, or Congressional action. At some point, if the cost of US health care reaches a quarter of GDP, he is going to see a lot more of “required bargaining” — by HHS; or an outright and early grant of patent free generics, for these and other therapies — and perhaps one-fiftieth of these prices. Damn. Onward.

नमस्ते