Late night tonight, Hinderaker points to a dumb crypto bro betting website called Polymarket, to (preposterously) infer that Tangerine is either in a dead heat, or holds a slight lead — over Kamala Harris. Hilarious.

Of course, the crypto bros (and 27 year old Wall Street morons) are leaning Tangerine.

Out in the real world, though — where regular (voting) people work regular if thankless jobs, pay taxes, and look out for their neighbors (and not just their Bugattis!)… Harris is plainly 7 to ten points ahead — and maybe more, in several swing states (save only Nevada).

That’s what actual non-partisan polling shows.

And, moreover, John’s fairy tale of an even race utterly ignores that Trump is now between 10 and 15 percent NET unfavorable. [Prior to the GOP convention it had narrowed to between 8 and 10 points.] And to be sure, he has been 10 per cent or more underwater on favorables, for months and months, now.

Critically, now over 54 percent of US voters think of him UN-favorably — while under 42 percent think favorably of him. No one with over 51% unfavorables, or a more than ten point “net deficit” has ever won a national election. Ever.

By contrast, Kamala’s favorables have bloomed over 50%, post the Democratic convention — to 53% as I write this.

Her unfavorables are now below 45%… and declining daily. [Sure, a black swan event could still happen, but at 66 days out, it’s becoming less and less likely.]

She’s in nearly ten point net favorable territory (not yet quite Obama 2008 numbers, but trending in the right direction). John derides this as “vibes”. I call it… a result. A result — of running a felon.

Yep… Hinderaker’s again… delusional, and increasingly demented “hopes” — are for an imaginary lost world, and running face first into an electorate that is now sick to death of his idiotic and hateful lies.

MAGA lies. Tangerine… lies.

It is still a reasonably close race — but she clearly leads now. And Trump has hit his inexorable vote ceiling. Nothing left in “his tank”.

So turnout is the Democrats’ big gun, now (especially in WI, MI, AZ and PA). And, yep…

She will… win! ¡Si Pueda!