As is often the case, John’s actual proffered data — closely parsed — does NOT support his major premise.

The 20 year data indicates more people identify as “independents”.

The 20 year data also supports a 20 year trend of INCREASING democratic turnout — and that in the main, independents tend to vote Democratic when they actually go to the polls. [Harris/Trump II was a slight outlier here.]

But even old Hinderaker admits that there are fewer self-identified GOP members, than there are Democratic ones.

And he admits that in the last four or so national elections, the Democrats have turned out in very large numbers.

So — all in all — the demographics, and turnout data… are all pointing away from any continued MAGA ascendancy.

That much is crystal clear. His conclusion is so erroneous, as to fairly raise the question of whether he is intentionally lying — to his rubes.

Onward, in any case — and resolutely so.