In the last four cycles, the polls Hinderaker most often cited… (cough, Rasmussen!)… were ultimately (and, wildly)… wrong — after Election Day results were known.

In fact, Mr. Biden won 2020 by much larger margins than John had in mind / said (he in fact predicted, with Rasmussen, a Tangerine win).

Didn’t happen.

Same thing, but more pronounced, in 2022 mid-terms: the GOP significantly underperformed their polling. Yawn.

So we’ll just chuckle, and/or yawn… at Hinderaker tonight.

He’s just bloviating (again).

Indeed, Nate Silver, at the far more accurate 538 (because it recognizes modern problems in poll numbers, and adjusts for the biases old school hard line poll numbers now have embedded in them)… rates Mr. Biden likely to win by 3 points. That is, after the news cycles, the June debate hasn’t changed things much.

Read all of his latest — and a bit:

…[T]he 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.

538’s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called “fundamentals” because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased.

The other big factor explaining our model’s relative stability is the flurry of swing-state polls that were published over the weekend, most good for Biden. The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today…

Now you know. Bub-bye John. Out.