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Hinderaker’s Inability To Analyze Data… Is Mind-Numbing.

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Overnight, John saw some Walgreen’s data, and leapt to the conclusion that perhaps — contrary to the data he posted, in the charts — getting vaccinated increases one’s risk of catching Covid.

Crap, man. Learn to read — and think. [Stop parroting Candace Owens’ junior high level rants, on Covid.]

He does say maybe, just maybe… un-vaccinated people get more tests, and that might skew his look at the data. But he quickly dismisses it — to get to his false punchline.

Damn. See, if Hinderaker could… actually think… it would dawn on him that most large employers (and all federal government offices — about a million workers, right there) in the US now require EITHER proof of vaccination, or weekly, or bi-monthly negative tests — just to come to the job site.

So, yes John — the data definitively CANNOT be read, as side-to-side analogous populations. This data cannot be tortured sufficiently — no matter how you try — to fit your odious prejudices.

Not to infer the wholly illogical conclusion that you offer.

Do leave forensic data science to the people who understand the data… and forensics… and… science (like the people NPR quoted, above left)… for the love of God, John.

He is a shameless liar, even on the very day he is supposed to be self-reflective — the day his Jeebus died on the cross — if you believe that sort of thing.

Out.

This Afternoon, Musk Asked On Twitter Whether The Board Ought To “Hold A Shareholders’ Vote”… On His “Offer”.

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It is my considered (and experienced) opinion that… Musk’s lawyers are either going to have to rein him in, or… resign. [He will ruin someone’s reputation here.]

For over 50 years, the ’34 Act’s Rule 14a-9 (and its predecessors) has deemed the failure to disclose certain information — when advocating for a vote on a specific proposal — like the one Elon filed in his Schedule 13D amendment this morning — to be a “materially misleading” solicitation, within the meaning of the rule.

Missing from Musk’s tweets are all the information about his plans, and self-interest, in the vote he advocates. Also missing is a frank and complete discussion of his other pending SEC entanglements — at least three investigations, two for insider trading of which we are aware.

This likely will be a fourth, now.

This guy is just compounding his problems at Tesla, for his own shareholders by willfully violating SEC rules, in his sh!t-posting about Twitter.

He also libeled the Saudi prince who owns a large stake in Twitter, after the Saudis came out against Elon’s proposal.

The SEC has sanctioned bidders who defame their opponents.

I could go on and on, but if Twitter’s board is in fact implementing a poison pill defense… Musk’s jig is up, anyway. For three years he will be unable to get control –unless he’s willing to pay over 100 times today’s NASDAQ price.

BTW, even he doesn’t have remotely enough money to do that.

So… it will likely all end in litigation with Musk claiming the pill was adopted in bad faith (a claim he will lose on, but probably litigate — for a year or two).

But the reason pills are used… is because they work. They stop greenmailer slimeballs — like Musk, dead in their tracks.

Stay tuned.

Man… the things I’ve seen… grin.

Hilarious — out, on the night of the Last Supper ’22…

Decided, here on Good Friday morning, that the masthead at that other property should/could be… updated.

Click the image below to see the old. This is the new:

Well — It’s A $41 Billion “Most-Expensivest” Sh!t-Post: Musk Makes “Non-Binding” / Fake “Offer” To Take Twitter Private.

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My experienced, and thus pretty firmly-held hunch is that he is actually angling toward liquidating his stake. But it is only a hunch.

In the bad old days, this would be called “greenmail“. It was frowned upon. Illusory offers to buy companies, or else the mailer would “make trouble”. Boards usually voted to buy the mailer out. Buy back his shares. But this is a different… day (sorry not sorry, Hinderaker!). The board here can — and likely will — just let him twist in the wind. He’s put himself in a very stupid position — $3.4 billion likely to go to… waste.

Some observations: his letter by its terms, says it is non-binding. And he only wants to “go private” with Twitter. He implies (but does not say directly) that if he cannot achieve a going private transaction, he will likely sell his stake.

So, Vanguard and the other larger institutional holders are likely to oppose his “offer”. They almost always side with management in such “greenmail” cases (last prominently seen at the end of the 1980s).

Finally, his offer undervalues Twitter, at an only 38% premium. He’ll need to put about 26% of his net worth into this deal, or about $85 billion — doubling his offer, if he really wants control, and to take Twitter private.

But as I say — I think it is just the highest priced sh!t-post the world has ever seen.

Just as his “board seat” was just the highest-cost focus group ever run — as he was to be only one of eleven votes.

But if he does not now promptly disclose at the SEC’s EDGAR window, on the very day he begins liquidating his position, or “changing his mind“, as he says — there’s a nice orange jumpsuit ahead — for him.

I actually thought he’d find better advice than he’s getting — or perhaps he’s just not listening to it… but that is a “no-news there” moment, right?

His SEC jacket just doubled in length — at the Enforcement Division.

Charming.

Fifteen Months On, She Dared Mighty Things — And Was Met With… Complete Success (Again!). Mars Atmosphere Data Sharing Dept.

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Longer term readers will remember that we closely followed the first mission to Mars by a Persian Gulf nation — and coincidentally, the first to be led by a female chief engineer. The mission has been a rousing success, for the UAE.

Now, nearly 15 months on, NASA will share upper Martian atmosphere data with the UAE, and they UAE will share their data, in turn. This is how real science gets done: there are no map lines visible on our tiny blue liferaft, from space — and certainly not from gossamer ships — hailing from various spots on our globe, but now orbiting snugly around… Mars. Here it is, from NASA tonight:

…NASA’s MAVEN mission and the United Arab Emirates’ Hope Probe mission are paving the way toward greater scientific collaboration and data exchange between the two Mars orbiters.

A new partnership that encourages the sharing of data between NASA’s MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) project and the Emirates Mars Mission’s (EMM) Hope Probe will enhance scientific returns from both spacecraft, which are currently orbiting Mars and collecting data on the Red Planet’s atmosphere. The arrangement is expected to add value to both MAVEN and EMM, as well as the scientific communities involved in analyzing the data the missions collect….

MAVEN went into orbit around Mars in 2014. Its mission is to investigate the upper atmosphere and ionosphere of Mars, offering an insight into how the planet’s climate has changed over time.

“MAVEN and EMM are each exploring different aspects of the Martian atmosphere and upper-atmosphere system,” said Shannon Curry, MAVEN principal investigator from the University of California, Berkeley. “Combined, we will have a much better understanding of the coupling between the two, and the influence of the lower atmosphere on the escape to space of gas from the upper atmosphere….”

Fine, cooperative interplanetary space science — indeed… fly safely — and (at one of my favorite destinations, now) stay dry and warm, baby grrl… smile. Onward.

नमस्ते

Time To Give KBJ At Least Four New Allies?

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Time to stir the pot, a bit….

That is the conclusion, here. And it is not a wrong-headed one:

…As the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson will speak with a voice our law has never truly heard. But for as long as the Court is controlled by six far-right radicals, Justice Jackson will too often speak in dissent. To realize her historic potential, Democrats must expand the Court—giving her four new colleagues who will vote to preserve fundamental rights and work to restore integrity to a failing institution.

The triumph of Justice Jackson’s confirmation cannot be overstated. Her confirmation to the Court breaks a barrier as old as our nation, and helps build a legal system whose decision-makers reflect the people their decisions most affect. President Joe Biden’s nominees to other seats in the federal judiciary have driven this shift: For the first time in history, a majority of a president’s confirmed nominees are women of color….

Republicans frantically tried to turn the hearings about Justice Jackson into hearings about expanding the Court. It is no accident that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s “first and foremost” concern about Justice Jackson was his concern about Court expansion. It is no coincidence that North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis railed against expanding the Court in the same breath that he warned against abolishing the filibuster. And it is no mistake that Utah Senator Mike Lee openly acknowledged that expanding the Court could “change its rulings [on] that portion of the court’s docket that tends to be more politically contentious.” Republicans know that maintaining their power depends on disempowering the American people.

As the party of a dwindling and increasingly radicalized minority, Republicans cannot control the country unless they control the Court….

Yes. Four would do it. Would do it, nicely. How about just the other three Mr. Biden had on his prior short list (yes, all women of color!) — plus say… Merrick Garland?

Smile.

More Wood, For The Demonstrably-Stupid Judge Tipton Bonfire — In Texas, On Asylum Seekers’ Enforcement Priorities

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We just want to keep a complete record, of how far out — off the fairway, and deep into the rough, young USDC Judge B. Drew Tipton is, here — hacking away at the underbrush with a seven iron, hoping one day — by mere chance — to strike someone’s golf ball. Probably not even his. [With the full Sixth Circuit 24 page holding, here.]

The generally conservative Sixth Circuit just agreed with the Biden Administration that the very same items Judge Tipton held his “trial” on… are very likely completely un-reviewable — by any court, since they aren’t even “final” agency actions, thus:

…On April 12, 2022, the Sixth Circuit granted the governments’ motion to stay the preliminary injunction pending appeal. Order, Arizona v. Biden, No. 22-3272 (6th Cir. April 12, 2022) (attached). The Sixth Circuit, in an opinion by Chief Judge Sutton, reasoned (1) that the States likely lacked standing, id. at 5-8; (2) that the September Guidance likely is unreviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act because it is not final agency action, id. at 9-12; (3) that, even if it were reviewable, Defendants were likely to prevail on the merits because (a) the September Guidance likely is not “contrary to law,” id. at 12-15; (b) the September Guidance likely is not “arbitrary or capricious,” id. at 15-16; and (c) the September Guidance likely was not required to undergo notice-and-comment procedures, id. at 16. For the Court’s convenience, Defendants are attaching a copy of the Sixth Circuit’s opinion to this filing….

Not even a final action — and young Tipton held a “trial”. What a hilarious waste of taxpayer funds, in the form of federal judicial resources. Damn.

The Curcio Hearing Is Set For Tomorrow Night, In Brooklyn — In Mr. Barrack’s UAE Secret Foreign Lobbying Case. We Will Blog It.

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The arguments will be about whether two separate trials will occur, and even if not so, should more than one firm represent the various felony defendants.

But mostly, I post this to encourage the readership to go read the irrepressible EmptyWheel — on these latest two government filings — here, and here. Each of these, as Marcy cogently points out, broadly hint that Paul Manafort was guilty of crimes he’s not been pardoned for — and that Tangerine (as a political campaign) didn’t do what it was required to do, by law.

All is now unraveling (as we’ve long said), unless Billy Barr will “fall on his sword” and say he knew, but failed to comply with the law himself (i.e., not likely — given his tell-all book), to protect Barrack, Manafort and ultimately, Tangerine.

…The Curcio Hearing previously set for 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 7, 2022 is hereby reset for 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 14, 2022. The parties of record are directed to use the video link sent by email. Public audio access is available by dialing 888-684-8852 and entering access code 6427877#.

Ordered by Judge Brian M. Cogan on 4/11/2022….

Now you know. . . airport runs this evening — gonna’ miss her, a ton… but London, and Morocco will be sweet!

नमस्ते

Candace Owens Sued For Securities Fraud, In Florida Federal Court, For Hyping The “Brandon” Coin…

~ condor ~ 1 Comment

Well… we must admit: it couldn’t happen… to a nicer person.

The story here is that a “Trump-world” crypto-coin was being flogged for real cash, to his least-educated acolytes/people, all while select privileged insiders (like Candace) were given vast troves of the coin essentially free, and then after pumping it — these privileged insiders… dumped all those coins on unsuspecting moms and pops.

That, my friends, is classic ’34 Act fraud. Securities fraud, in fact.

The interesting moment will come, in a few months, in depositions, in the Middle District of Florida, when Candace Owens is asked, under oath — how much she was paid to say she was “all in!” on the coin. Even if the answer is zero — the next question will be “How much did you pay for your trove of coins?”

“Oh really — they were a penny a coin?!”

“And how many have you sold — and at what prices?”

“Oh… really? That would mean you personally made nearly $20,000?”

All for saying you were “all in!” — and then not disclosing you were actually… selling your trove?

Charming. Simply… charming.

Just watch — Condor predicts this is essentially how it will all unfold.

G’night, one and all — and do be careful out there. These are some serious grifters.

Tangerine’s Latest “Self-Tell” — By Public Written Statement, On Social Media…

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This all becomes rather… repetitive — at some point. [Like tonight.]

Tonight we see Tangerine again flogging the dead horse that 2020 was stolen from him — a lie, and he well-knows it.

In fact, he knew it by late November 2020. But he still tells this lie, for his wounded ego. And yet, as if to show that his gab feed is where irony goes… to die… he said that the election “overturn” was “there for the taking” in Pennsylvania, but McSwain just wouldn’t go over, and… “take” it.

One does not “take” an actual win. One “claims” it; as it was theirs — of right.

The word “take” plainly implies that Trump knew he was attempting a steal — or, at least… a grift, in pushing this lie, in that Commonwealth.

So — we dutifully collect these screen caps — for history, lest any of our great grandchildren one day forget: this was the most corrupt federal official the United States (at any level) has ever seen… elected.

Out.

Live-Notes — From Virgil Griffith’s NoKo Sentencing In Manhattan — Aiding Ruthless Dictators: Not A Good Look.

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Here are the notes, as promised.

I may have to bail out, and return later — but I will start, thus:

▲ We are awaiting USDC Judge Castel; Virgil is in the courtroom now, brought in by US Marshals; waves meekly to his parents (wearing federal DoC jumpsuit)….

▲ We are underway, the Judge reads the list of documents he’s relying on. . . defense counsel up first….

▲ Mr. Klein for Virgil is restating most of his moving papers’ arguments — no compensation received; a “victimless” crime [Ed. Note: this is flatly false; ask the starving North Korean people.]…

▲ Makes mention of the fact that Mr. Griffith caught COVID in the MDC; terrible conditions — organized gangs control commissary there, so he couldn’t get access… his current housing is much better, but he’s been through a lot in federal lockup already….

▲ Griffith would request (Ed. Note: Martin Shkreli’s current) housing — at FCI Allenwood Low…

▲ Judge Castel notes that the defense papers list Vigil’s diagnosis as “narcissistic personality disorder” (Ed. Note: also like Shkreli)….

▲ Defense counsel highlights his help of a homeless man, at the Waffle House… “He saved this man….”

▲ Judge Castel dryly mentions “that was after his arrest, right?”….

▲ Second chair defense counsel, Mr. Buckley, says “there was an absence of financial gain.”

▲ Condor: Of course, the statute nowhere mentions a need to show he personally made money. And he pleaded to an agreed statement of facts: he admits he did it all, and that it was a series… of felonies….

▲ Griffith speaking now, offers his apologies — and indicates that watching Ukraine [invasion, and Russian sanctions] has shown him their value. “I have been cured of my stubborn arrogance, and my obsession with North Korea. My career has been damaged….”

▲ AUSAs speaking now — this is no First Amendment case, he was teaching “smart contracts for North Korea” — to sponsor terrorism. Sanctions are crucial to putting pressure on rogue state actors.

▲ Essentially, he joined forces with an odious dictator’s regime….

▲ The AUSA goes on to point out he well-knew what he was doing. He tried to access over $1 million in a single crypto account. He bragged about it…. In light of Ukraine invasion, “this sentence should send a message about not undermining sanctions….”

▲ The able USDC Judge Castel is ready to impose the sentence… he says “Mr. Griffith pleaded guilty the day before trial. It was intentional violation of sanctions, which are intended to avoid military conflict….”

▲ Judge Castel takes specific note of a photo, in admitted evidence, of Mr. Griffith wearing a North Korean tunic, with a white board behind him containing the message “No Sanctions! Yay!” along with a smiley face… behind him. Seems intentional:

▲ Judge Castel: “I sentence him to 63 months in prison and a fine of $100,000.”

▲ “Mr. Griffith has no real clear ideology… He played off both sides, all that mattered was that he was at the center….”

More soon Almost exactly as we predicted… over five years. Onward.

नमस्ते