No shocker there, overnight. Recall that he repeatedly told probably the worst public-health-impacting lie of the last century’s span, through the Summer and Fall of 2020. He claimed the dying was mostly over. That was at under 80,000 deaths in the US alone. We are well over ten times that here, coming up on almost two years later. And he told that repeated lie after many corrected him — and did it spouting (see archived bottom graphic here) what he called “statistical analysis.” As I said then, I say now:

Do sit down, and sit this one out, champ. John — you are out of your league. Again, with likely lethal results.

This time, he cites a wholly post-hoc “short note” comparison (not a peer reviewed study, at all) of various in-country data that only covers the second, or “Delta wave” period, of COVID-19 (i.e.,when many central European countries were not masking much any longer) — and offers the headline that it is “proof” that masks don’t work. Damn, son. Just… damn.

The differences overwhelm the similarities, and the author of the note plainly admits that. But John doesn’t print that part — at all. It is highly likely that, as the pandemic wore on, the most elderly, and most immuno-compromised people were most likely NOT to stop wearing masks — despite evidence that Delta was less lethal. So the higher death rate simply reflects more people were dying — there is zero causation here. Again, the author candidly admits it — but Hinderaker runs a wholly false headline — knowing full well that correlation is NOT causation.

Second (though there is much more to say, but these two items are plenty to debunk Hinderaker’s new lies), the data — even as presented, makes no accounting for vaccinations. It is absolutely true that in regions where more than 70% vaccination rates were achieved, by Summer of 2021, there would be less concern about lethality. Reams of data on that score.

So, in countries that were more highly-masked, it is very likely that vaccination rates were well below 70%. That is, people were dying off, more due to relatively-low vaccination rates in poorer central European countries. Without filtering out vaccination as a factor, this “note” from a non-peer reviewed source is worse than useless. And John knows it — but he launches an idiot headline (and a dangerous lying one, at that) just the same.

The only comparable data would be from countries where vaccination rates were near US rates, and in similar sized populations with good access to affordable health care.

That data is nowhere in John’s post, nor in the author’s note.

So, stop lying, Hinderaker. That is a public health lie, in your headline.

Out.