SEC Schedule 13G Trend Watch: Both Vanguard And Blackrock “Jes’ Be… Lovin’ Up” — On Merck, In The Last Two Years…

Clearly both of these well regarded, and vast investment houses… have an increasingly positive view of Merck, vis-a-vis the peers in the mega cap pharma space.

In fact, there was a time when most houses were slowly decreasing their exposure to Merck (about nine years ago). Then for four years, the largest houses held steady — at around 6.5%. So we stopped covering it.

But as Keytruda has blasted past all projections, quarter after quarter — and Merck has steadily climbed from the $45 range, ten years ago… to around $109 as I write this… it is too good to ignore — with a fat (and increasing!) quarterly cash dividend, to boot.

But to be clear, Vanguard, now at just under nine percent of Merck’s outstandings… is not likely to go over 10%. Should it do so, it would have immediate SEC reporting obligations, on each buy-in or sell off. And that’s a headache a passive investor doesn’t need. So — expect both of these institutional investors (here is Blackrock’s latest) to max out at around 9.8%, even if Merck continues its winning ways. Steady state will be no negative reflection on Merck, once each reaches near the immediate reporting thresholds.

Now you know — and a Happy Valentine’s — to one and all of good will!

नमस्ते

I Get That Higher Order Thinking Is Difficult For Senile Hinderaker… I Do.

So… yet again because Hinderaker and the Powerliners have nothing remotely important — or even useful — to say any longer. Thus, John Hinderaker turns to defending Super Bowl ads (yes, advertisements!) from criticism by US House members.

The “ad” (for whatever it is worth) showed lots of opposing political and racial and ethnic arguments, and violence, in a black and white journalists’ photo slide show style — then closed with white lettering on a black screen reading “love your enemies” — an ad paid for by some organized religious group using the tag “jesus, he gets… us“.

Fine — I guess — if one adheres to that brand of christianity. I no longer am bound by that covenant. So I may not… love certain enemies. That is my clear right — and AOC’s central point.

Yup, John (once again!) weaponizes jesus’s words… to permit an ad hominem attack on AOC. John pretends he is too aged and infirm to actually discern / garner AOC’s meaning when she says she doesn’t want “fascism” to be seen as “benign“.

What John refuses to accept (but certainly, even now, in his doddering old age… well understands) is that if one doesn’t adhere to that brand of xtianity (or resents being told to love people who’ve terrorized one’s family)… or, if one is a follower of certain Hebrew sects that don’t believe in forgiveness of ALL sins… or — in short — if one is simply a humanist, agnostic or atheist… NOTHING compels the conclusion that we should “love” the KKK, the Proud Boys or Oath Keepers (all of which are the same organization under a larger tent pole)… or Hitler or even Vladimir Putin, who right now is slaughtering Ukrainian civilians (in an invasion justified by… nothing, actually).

So it is simply a disagreement of opinions — one about which… John often says he’s angry — at certain social media sites (for down-playing what he sees as the free expression of the more or less fascist set of opinions, BTW). Yet he cannot tolerate AOC’s disagreement with his hard right frother, intolerant brand of xtianity. In sum… he will not allow her… her opinion, should it go against his [mis-]reading of his bible.

Yes, Hinderaker’s blog postings — again, where irony goes… to die.

Hilarious — and out.

The Justifiable Labor Unrest At Amazon… Has Spread To Coventry Facility, Just Outside London: GMB Union Wage Actions, Coming…

Since no one at Powerline can think of anything useful to write about (the boys are still mired in wacko conspiracy theories about… Twitter, and separately… about… balloons…) And yes, the video at the bottom is a reply to Hinderaker’s of last night….

So, we will return to a regular series of ours, at another property of mine, post the “Rihanna Baby Bump No. 2” night. [Personally, I wanted the Eagles and young Jalen Hurt to prevail, but I enjoyed probably the best back and forth, in a Super Bowl… ever. Patrick Mahomes has great heart. So it goes.]

Yep — this is my mid-monthly report on labor-related “tings” (ref. Rihanna’s second bump, last night!), at bad old Amazon. For its part, Amazon thinks it is doing well, by paying a max of about £11.45 — or just one about pound, over minimum wage in England. The newest workers at the facility make just 11 pence over UK minimum wage (at today’s exchange rates, that’s only about $12.62 an hour). Damn — and no one can really live on that, there — on even a fifty hour work week.

And so this fight is with already unionized warehouse workers — in a large distribution facility that serves most of the London exurbs. The workers are seeking a true living wage, and fairer benefits. A series of day long walk outs will be staged, between now and St. Patrick’s Day — each timed to disrupt speedy deliveries on these alloted days. Here’s the latest, from Reuters (UK bureau):

…Workers at an Amazon warehouse in Britain will walk out for seven further days in an escalation of a dispute over pay, their trade union said on Monday.

Last month GMB union members at the warehouse in Coventry, central England, staged the first ever strike at the U.S. e-commerce giant’s operations in Britain.

GMB said more than 350 staff at Coventry warehouse would now take further industrial action on February 28, March 2 and March 13-17….

That placard is pitch-perfect: human line workers are indeed… not robots. Mr. Bezos would do well to take that to heart here, and across the pond.

[And that legacy graphic at immediate left commemorates a would-be non-profit partnership that never got off the ground… again, Mr. Bezos backed out.]

Smile… Coventry (UK) has new, deeper meaning for us here, in my house now, as well… through my eldest daughter…. Onward!

नमस्ते

Very Disconcerting News: Over 20 Unexplained Deaths, Near Guinea / Cameroon Border of Kie-Ntem Province. New Ebola Outbreak?

Though this news item, out of London is a few days old, it seems a certainty that people must have been sick for a few weeks, in Kie-Ntem Province, Guinea. None are confirmed Ebola cases (at least not by WHO standards of reporting), but at least 20 highly suspicious deaths have been recorded, among otherwise younger, healthy people. To be sure, it could be a Marburgs outbreak… but the outcome is much the same, either way. Both are often lethal, spread rapidly… and while there are vaccines for both… once infected. . . the prognosis is challenging — as no really effective therapeutics can be deployed rapidly, at least not at a price point that makes it possible in near real time, inside Equatorial Guinea.

So we are left to just cross our fingers, and hope. Hope that the Merck vaccine is already on the ground there, and boing given to all contacts of contacts… both in Kie-Ntem, and across the way… in Cameroon. Here’s a bit:

…Cameroon has restricted movement along its border with Equatorial Guinea following “several unexplained deaths” from hemorrhagic fever, the government said on Friday.

Cameroon said around 20 deaths had been recorded in a short space of time in Equatorial Guinea’s Kie-Ntem province, which borders Cameroon’s Olamze district.

The news will raise concerns of another Ebola outbreak, the last of which left 55 people dead in Uganda in 2022. The World Health Organization told the Telegraph on Friday that it doesn’t yet know if the cases are Ebola, but it is “not taking any chances”. It added that it will have test results back by Saturday [yesterday, US time]….

As ever with viral agents. . . it is three steps forward… then one or two, perhaps… back. Onward, resolutely just the same.

Be excellent to one another.

नमस्ते

Hinderaker: Deadly Boring — On Imagined UFOs…

As Hinderaker also well knows, these balloons have all had communications jammed while over NORAD airspace. Yet he and Johnson try to stoke fear, lacking patriotism — and real courage, themselves.

But this means only that it is F-22 Raptor target practice… not much else.

If the Powerline boys think there’s a divisive story to be conjured from whole cloth here… they’re all in.

So it is we are forced to endure more Hinderakerian nonsense, tonight.

Yikes.

Curious Files Dept… Solar Plasma Loop Becomes A Very-Temporary Solar/Polar… “Halo”?

Okay — first, the technical aspects (on a quiet Sunday morning, with clear skies, free of… “red” balloons, at the moment at least!) — as a ~24 MB gif file, the movie at right (capturing about a month of solar observations, in infrared) will take a moment to load, unless you are on wi-fi. But once it animates, look closely at the top of the globe. Late in the series, shortly after 02.05.23, you will begin to notice a darker ring around the top of the globe, down at about one-sixth of a radius, from the pole. That dark halo (in this wavelength) is a polar vortex of cooling plasma material — that was ejected from a massive plasma arc, near the pole, in the last two weeks.

It is not alarming — just… new. Similar, smaller arcs (or ropey loops — see below right, for one of those, also animated) have been observed many times, but this was the first recording of an entire loop detaching from the solar “surface” (really just the top layer of a vast cauldron of boiling hydrogen fueled fusion explosions), escaping into space, and then being pulled back down by the Sun’s immense gravitational and magnetic forces… to become a sort of aurora borealis, around the top of the globe. It is already fading out, but indicates (once again!) that our mathematical models of how that fusion-fired furnace works… may well be incomplete. Or in need of revision. Grin.

Here’s some of the better popular press reportage on it this week — but truly, nothing of danger to Earth — just more mysterious space physics, in all her myriad wonders:

…A normal “prominence” on the Sun was spotted doing something unusual. A solar prominence is loop of electrically charged gas called plasma, which often spout out of the Sun. Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist and deputy director at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, told Space.com that a prominence like this happens at the same 55º latitude every 11 years or so….

What happened on Feb. 2 was that a prominence became detached… then whirled around above the Sun’s north pole….

Scientists don’t know why the event happened because they have no images of the Sun’s polar regions, but they might soon get more clues. In February 2025 the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft will begin an inclined orbit of the Sun, beginning its “high-latitude” mission during which it will take the first top-down images of the Sun’s polar regions….

Now you know. Back to lobbyists, and lobbying, below — this time, for Amgen. Smiling into the warming sunshine — and amazed at the endless warmth she offers, and we largely take for granted — each morning, when she rises.

नमस्ते

Nope. Not Even At No. 3, Now. Not A Meaningful Threat. Not Ever, Scott — We Own Our Skies… Geez. Sit Down.

As Scott again churlishly forgets (or never knew) — we always jammed the communications abilities of these balloons. Always. But we never disclose to the press “means and methods” about spycraft. Damn.

He’s a pure moron.

Or worse, a malevolent liar — with an agenda to sow chaos, and to stir up his frothy hard right, third grade educational attainment base readers / voters.

That is all.

Amgen’s Q4 2022 Lobby Effort — And All Three, Now Compared From 2021, To 2022: Amgen’s Down Slightly; Merck’s Way Up.

This closes out this series. [See the other two below.] If I get ambitious this week, on a slow news day, I’ll make a graphic of the full year 2022 spends, compared to fully year 2021. We shall see.

But obviously, Merck spent significantly more in Q4 2022, than it did in Q4 2021. Amgen was modestly lower, same periods.

And, as was true with Pfizer (and Merck), Amgen paid only insignificant amounts (less than 5% of its net income) of US federal corporate income tax, as compared to its billions and billions of global net profits, from life-saving (and very high priced) drugs and bio-science cures. And it — along with German Merck (no relation) just announced large layoffs that impact US teams, while still being wildly profitable (over $7 billion last year) on an economic basis — from selling these drugs (with US payors regularly bearing the highest overall net prices in the world). These top-prices are paid in the main by US-based insurers, and yes US-private pay consumers. That just seems… as I often say… inequitable.

In any event, here is what all Amgen is bending lots of Congressional ears about:

…▲ Issues related to drug pricing reform; Public law 117-1769 Inflation Reduction Act

▲ HR 2617 Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023:

▲ issues related to cardiovascular disease
▲ Issues related to FTC
▲ FDA issues (Food and Drug Omnibus Reforms Act)
▲ Issues related to Pharmacy Benefit Manger transparency
▲ Issues related to clinical trial diversity

▲ S1435 affordable prescriptions for patients act; H.R.2873 Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Through Promoting Competition Act; H.R. 2884 Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Through Improvements to Patent Litigation Act; Biosimilars reimbursement issues, no specific bill; Supply Chain Issues, no specific bill; Issues related to biodefense issues, S3799 PREVENT Pandemics Act; Issues related to cardiovascular disease awareness, S. 3018/ HR 3173 Improving Seniors Timely Access to Care Act; Issues related to 340B; H.R. 5801 HELP Copays Act; Issues related to patient affordability issues, including copay cards, copay accumulators, National Benefit Payment Parameters; HR 8588 Fair Care Act, 340B hospital reporting; HR 4390 Protect 340B Act….

▲ Public law 117-1769 Inflation Reduction Act; HR 2617 Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023; Issues related to drug pricing reform and Medicare Part D redesign; S. 1943 and H.R. 3517, Issues related to DXA scans, osteoporosis; issues related to cardiovascular disease awareness; Issues related to ESRD; Issues related to asthma and self-administered drug list; Reimbursement for biologics/biosimilars; Issues related to discarded drugs….

▲ Issues related to corporate and international tax, including regarding Public Law 115-97, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; Issues related to Puerto Rico; Issues related to OECD negotiations on the taxation of global income….

▲ S.1435 Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Act; H.R.2873 Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Through Promoting Competition Act; H.R. 2884 Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Through Improvements to Patent Litigation Act; S 2891 Restore the America Invents Act; S. 2774 – Pride in Patent Ownership Act; S. 4704 — Patent Examination and Quality Improvement Act of 2022; S. 4417 – Patent Trial and Appeal Board Reform Act of 2022; S. 4430 — Interagency Patent Coordination and Improvement Act of 2022; FTC related issues; Issues related to the Patent Act; Issues related to march-in/Bayh Dole, WTO/TRIPS waiver, no specific bill….

Sure. This is very common — in several US industrial groups (oil and gas; investment banking, and certainly tech and telecom): making vast profits from (primarily) US consumers, then laying mostly US (admittedly, higher wage) workers off… while still paying very small amounts in US corporate income taxes, on an overall basis — booking all income into tax havens like Ireland, and Swiss holdcos, as well as various island jurisdictions. . . like Puerto Rico. But just because it is common… that does not make it… right.

Out — to watch a six year old girls’ basketball game (mostly, a game of “dodge-ball”, actually — they are still learning the rules, and very few want to be responsible for handling the rock). Hilarious!

नमस्ते

Ken Paxton, Texas AG — Settles For $3.3 Million (Paying Texas Taxpayers’ Funds!)… For HIS Corruption.

Here’s the way the regular GOP in Texas has run, for decades — and is now run — under Gov. Abbott. [This guy is Gov. Abbott’s right hand, and official… chief law officer of the Courts of Texas.]

The time-line: Lie about your corrupt bribery schemes, and when whistleblowers in your own office report it — attack THEM.

Then stall for three to five years.

Then, on pain of nearly losing your law license (in state disciplinary proceedings)… agree to pay Texas’ own state taxpayer dollars (for your personal wrongdoing)… to the tune of $3.3 million — and just… issue an apology?!

D A M N.

Voters in Texas sure must be gullible… and/or stupid. Here’s the bit:

…Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has agreed to apologize and pay $3.3 million in taxpayer money to four former staffers who accused him of corruption in 2020, igniting an ongoing FBI investigation of the three-term Republican.

Under terms of a preliminary lawsuit settlement filed Friday, Paxton made no admission of wrongdoing to accusations of bribery and abuse of office, which he has denied for years and called politically motivated.

But Paxton did commit to making a remarkable public apology toward some of his formerly trusted advisers whom he fired or forced out after they reported him to the FBI. He called them “rogue employees” after they accused Paxton of misusing his office to help one of his campaign contributors, who also employed a woman with whom the attorney general acknowledged having an extramarital affair….

“Attorney General Ken Paxton accepts that plaintiffs acted in a manner that they thought was right and apologizes for referring to them as ‘rogue employees,'” the final settlement must state, according to court records.

In all, eight members of Paxton’s senior staff joined in the extraordinary revolt in 2020 and either resigned or were fired. The settlement is with four of them who sued under Texas’ whistleblower law….

Charming. Out, laughing at Hinderaker’s praise of Texas — as a state that works well under GOP leadership, last night.

Hinderaker’s FL v. NY State Budgets: Let’s Compare!

We’ve long known that Hinderaker only measures humans’ worth in terms of dollars spent or dollars saved.

Once again tonight, he makes that plain.

His thesis is that Florida spends less money on human services (by far) than New York — so (in his imaginings, at least) Florida is a “better” state than New York.

But by spending half as much on public health / Medicare / Medicaid… Florida kills more via poor health outcomes than New York, also by a wide margin.

Educational proficiency / attainment (at least an undergraduate degree by age 25) in FL is well below NY. [NY also is well ahead on proportion of population having completed high school by age 21.]

NY pays a lot to remove snow each year (no such need in FL), and FL gets almost exclusively federal FEMA money for the odd Hurricane or tornado strike — so that too is excluded from John’s “winner” state numbers.

But do look at my other metrics, at right. Despite having roughly equal total populations, overall — Florida has incarcerated DOUBLE the number of people (at 95,000, compared to 43,000), in all of New York. DeSantis uses them as prison industrial complex nearly free labor too.

I return to my starting point: Hinderaker’s soul is a dead, withered thing — he measured humans by what they cost to keep alive; or what he saves… by letting them die.

Charming. Florida, John? Keep it. I’ll never visit — haven’t since 1998. Won’t — until DeSantis is run out of politics.