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BMO Capital Moves Merck To “Outperform” — After Q3 2023 Guidance Bump-Ups… Smile.

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Way back in July of 2016 (when we last mentioned a BMO prognostication), while we were indicating what a game changer pembrolizumab was going to be, the folks at BMO had Merck as fully valued at $58. I suppose that wasn’t a terribly risky call — but even as a critic, I thought it was being under-appreciated.

Fast forward to today — and Merck has a fairly clear runway to 2034-35, on patents on what is now called Keytruda, clocking about $25 billion a year in sales revenue. That’s pretty nice… runway.

So BMO now calls Rahway as an outperformer, even at ~$104, today. BMO’s new call? $132.

Yes. I agree. (But think of how much BMO clients missed, via the call that it was fully valued at $58! Yikes.)

Merck has a minimum of 25 per cent upside just in the next six months of elapsed time.

We won’t become a silly maximalist here — ever the balance, right?

But it does look pretty good for the old George Merck firm, through 2025, to a near certainty. Now you know — and c’mon, let my Buffs steal one from UCLA tomorrow night! Out.

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What The Cancer of “Tangerine-Think” Hath Wrought…

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We’ve covered the stupid 106 page opinion of Judge Doughty at length here, out of Louisiana. And now in the Supremes, his specious orders, as modified and curtailed by the Fifth Circuit are pending a full briefing. That will take us to mid-2024, minimum. [Please excuse the legacy graphic — feeling lazy today. But that is his distant relative, circa 1962, on the left.]

But one guy — with Kennedy in his name — wants to cut the line, and get in front of the Supremes.

So now — this morning — he seeks the right to intervene in a case already before the US Supreme Court.

That almost never happens. [He will fail — in both this attempt, and his supposed independent WH run. Hilarious.]

In sum, he is required to litigate to a final verdict down in Monroe, Louisiana, then work his way up through the courts. USDC Judge Doughty — not the sharpest tool in the shed, down there — has placed a hold on all proceedings, while the appeals on his first preliminary injunction get sorted out. [He’s likely trying to avoid additional humiliation at the High Court.]

Too bad for Kennedy that he (simply by virtue of WANTING it to be so) cannot jump to the front of the line, on the mere assertion that he’s… um… running for President.

Nope. “This is America, Jack!” — that’s not how it works, here — despite what you see Tangerine try, day in and day out.

Take a seat. You’ll have to wait it out, on the pine bench down there.

Truly hilarious.

Despite Losing At Every Level, Texas Gov. Abbott Seeks Supremes’ Appeal — On TX S.B. 12 — A “Law” Banning Drag Performances.

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Well… this is essentially the same law that was stricken in Tennessee — but it is being litigated by Texas Gov. Abbott, as a wedge issue.

The law is presently enjoined — just as the Tennessee version is. But Gov. Abbott is filing to have the Supremes weigh in. He will lose.

Here’s a bit of what has transpired in the Lone Star State while we were covering Tennessee more closely.

…“Drag performers aren’t using taxpayer money to support their real estate developer cronies; they aren’t using burner phones to hide their affairs; they aren’t avoiding lawful process, by threats; they aren’t punishing staff who speak out against them. Yet, drag performers are the ones that the Texas Senate decided to put out of a job?” said Ricardo Martinez… CEO at Equality Texas.

“We should all be worried about why some Texas politicians want to control which doctors we see, what stories can be told in schools, and which performers have the right to practice their art. Lawmakers tried to use drag as a scapegoat to chip away at our First Amendment rights and we’re glad the court isn’t going to allow that to happen….”

And, so it is… that he will lose at the highest court… likely by mid 2024. By then, the Tennessee version will have also been permanently stricken by the Supremes. Onward — but what a stupid waste of taxpayer funds, to appease the hateful “christian” right… Damn.

[In passing, I’ll note that today, the Texas legislature just sent a separate measure up to him for signature, one that purports to allow his state and local troopers to arrest people, solely on the basis that they are suspected not to be US citizens — on sight. This is a power solely reserved to the federal government — as it is immigration related. If someone runs a stop light, that is a concurrent state/federal matter. But the Texas state authorities possess no right to ask about immigration status, without a separate state law violation on full-on probable cause. This measure too will be stricken. Yikes.]

YAWN. A Former CoC Continues To Violate Criminal Court Orders. NY Edition: $10K — Jail Next?

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It should be obvious to all… that no former Commander in Chief ever was found guilty of contempt in any court of law in the United States. This one? Now at least five times, by my count.

The able NY Supreme Court judge has said jailing is next. And it is clear, Tangerine cannot shut up to save his life. He is threatening court employees and prosecutors.

We may see him dumped into the isolation tank at/in the MDC soon — at least for 24 hours.

That’s your boy, guys.

Charming.

Very Solid Q3 ’23 From Rahway… Let’s Ease Off The “Patent Cliff” Alarmism, Mmmkay?

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Look — I get it. Most analysts work for a larger firm; one that has a side of the house that makes its bread and butter on selling securities — creating churn / brokerage commissions.

And, of course, if this $60 billion company finds no new drugs or other uses for existing ones, it will hit a patent wall at around 2035 or so (most analysts don’t understand patent thickets / evergreening). But between this morning, and 2035… there will be LOTS of ink spilled, if that is shaping up to be the case. You will have dozens of opportunities to exit closer to a market top.

In sum, unlike so many hyped “investments” these days, Merck is simply wildly stable, and profitable. And it is investing for the future, generously — but wisely. One might be forgiven for calling it… boring. If getting rich (from $31 to $106) is “boring“.

And sure, a million things could go off the rails. Some other even better oncology agent may emerge. But it will not happen overnight. And (despite my regular poking) Merck is built to last. So here’s the Bloomberg news. But don’t sell on the news just yet. You’ve got a solid decade of runway, here:

…Merck raised its sales forecast amid increased demand for Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer treatment that now accounts for 40% of revenue, and a surprisingly strong result from its controversial Covid treatment.

Total annual sales are now expected to be as high as $60.2 billion, up from prior guidance that topped out at $59.6 billion, Merck said Thursday as it reported third-quarter earnings….

Now you know. Don’t let the analysts’ hot sheets convince you you need to hop around into other pharma buckets — and most of all… never into crypto- — of any stripe. That is a pure hype cycle, now dying out. Even dead cats bounce, if dropped from a tall enough building ledge. Onward… smiling a wicked smile.

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Mirengoff Is Right About This Much: New “Speaker” Johnson Will NOT Be Able To Rule This Rabble…

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So, again — the chaos as a brand is truly what Paul, and the Powerline boys bargained for — fought for and now are… mostly dying under. That is plain as day.

It seems only now they want to cluck-cluck, and wag the lank finger of accusation… at the monster they intentionally spawned.

Hilarious. But, about this — Paul is indeed right, in his assessment, tonight:

…Does Johnson have what it takes to be an effective Speaker of the House. I don’t know. However, I’m pretty sure he won’t be an effective Speaker of this House. But who could be, given the razor-thin GOP majority and the nature of the caucus’ chaos-loving outlier members?….

And yes — it plays directly into our hands, not just as liberal Democrats — but as moral, thinking and sensible… adults.

These idiots… have destroyed themselves. And I’m here for it. Even if it makes our nation a lil’ less efficient.

The band-aid had to be ripped off — to expose the pustulent festering wounds these malign actors inflicted on the GOP.

It is an ugly part of sunshine — the unmasking. And it has finally, fully arrived. Trump being fined $5,000 a day for violating gag orders, three of his lawyers (with more to come) flipping and taking plea agreements, to testify against him… Santos finally seeing contempt proceedings, and Steve Bannon: same.

The wheels are comin’ off, now boys… and you have only yourselves to blame.

What Baxter’s Lobbyists Bent Congressional Ears About… Through 3/4ths of 2023, At Least.

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Clearly, with its most recent 2023 organic revenue woes, and its overall smaller size (on revenue, market cap and profitability) compared to the others we’ve tracked… Baxter International has had to reduce its spend — on lobbying.

But it still seeks favor in several of the usual buckets. Do see below:

…Issues related to pharmaceutical pricing; Legislation to incentivize new technology for innovation in home dialysis (no current bill number)….

Issues relating to drug pricing, home dialysis expansion, ESRD reimbursement for Hemodialysis; 340B Drug pricing, device sterilization; Issues relating to safe mobility and issues relating to diabetic retinopathy; Issues relating to pandemic all-hazards preparedness act; H. Res. 550 and H.R. 4421; Issues related to artificial intelligence in healthcare….

Issues related to increasing funding for Strategic National Stockpile; Labor, Health, and Human Services appropriations….

Taxation of multinational companies; Monitor tax reform proposal relating to corporate tax policies….

Welp. We should note that Baxter has announced plans to spin-off to shareholders the renal / dialysis businesses, in a company to be called “Vantive” — so the make up of this spend will change markedly, in 2024 and beyond. Legacy Baxter will be more a solutions, sets and pumps biz, by then. [With a few other niche bio-businesses, to be sure.]

NOW… we will call this series “done.” [Unless a commenter pipes up to ask about some other life science company, that is.] Grin. Onward.

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A Long Gamma-Ray Burst — And Multiple Teams Swung Into Action — Chasing After “A Seed, Dropped By A Sky-Bird, In A Distant Wood…”

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Lasting just over 200 seconds, this one required exceedingly swift sky-work, for the discovery.

A collaboration across the globe swung into action — to pinpoint the source on the sky and track how its brightness changed (“like a seed dropped by a sky-bird, in a distant wood” — and our understanding is changed… for good).

These observations in the gamma-ray, X-ray, optical, infrared, and radio showed that the optical/infrared counterpart was faint, evolved quickly, and rapidly became very red — all the hallmarks of a kilonova. [Like a comet pulled from orbit… or a stream that meets a boulder… halfway through the wood….] Here’s the NASA run-down on it all:

…A team of scientists has used multiple space and ground-based telescopes, including… NASA’s Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, and NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, to observe an exceptionally bright gamma-ray burst, GRB 230307A, and identify the neutron star merger that generated an explosion that created the burst. [The next-gen space ‘scope] helped scientists detect the chemical element tellurium in the explosion’s aftermath….

Other elements near tellurium on the periodic table — like iodine, which is needed for much of life on Earth — are also likely to be present among the kilonova’s ejected material. A kilonova is an explosion produced by a neutron star merging with either a black hole or with another neutron star….

GRB 230307A is particularly remarkable. First detected by Fermi in March, it is the second brightest GRB observed in over 50 years of observations, about 1,000 times brighter than a typical gamma-ray burst that Fermi observes. It also lasted for 200 seconds, placing it firmly in the category of long duration gamma-ray bursts, despite its different origin.

“This burst is way into the long category. It’s not near the border. But it seems to be coming from a merging neutron star,” added Eric Burns, a co-author of the paper and member of the Fermi team at Louisiana State University….

Now you know — and like a hand-print on my heart… it captures LSU, too… grinning, ear to ear… 20 years on, with “Wicked“, at this all-hallows time of year, here too.

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MK-1942 Study Discontinued, As A Future Potential Oral Alzheimer’s Candidate. This, After A Decade Of Coverage…

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This won’t materially move the MRK NYSE stock price, as this stoppage / null-result was likely long ago priced in, as Baxter, Pfizer and Lilly have seen the same blind alley appear, in their respective programs.

Alzheimer’s is a very, very tough nut to crack — it seems to be thousands of small things, at work — not just one or two main bio-chemical processes. So, a pill for the memory eroding scourge will elude us for the foreseeable future… according to Rahway, thus via SeekingAlpha, and the fine but subscription based Endpoints News:

…A spokesperson for Merck told Endpoints News that data from the trials suggested that MK-1942 was linked to potential liver toxicity as detected by abnormal changes in liver function tests in several participants.

“No related serious adverse events were reported,” the company added….

There you have it. Yes, human health care science is… science. Trial and error. Rinse… and repeat. But ever, onward.

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