The Icelandic Eruptions On Reykjanes Peninsula — Renewed. And Wear Green…

We’ve been tracking this for about six months, and it seems like the Earth is shuddering on St. Patrick’s, so we will mention it again on a quiet Sunday morning here.

Here’s the latest — on the new eruption, via The UK Guardian:

…Emergency teams worked through the night to bolster defensive barriers around the evacuated fishing town of Grindavik as lava from the fourth volcanic eruption on Iceland’s Reykjanes peninsula since December flowed towards it.

After weeks of warnings that semi-molten rock was building up under the ground, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said the eruption, at 8.23pm local time (2023 GMT) on Saturday, had opened a nearly three km-long fissure in the earth between two mountains.

Lava was flowing mainly south and south-east at a rate of about one km an hour overnight and could reach the ocean, the IMO said. Defensive dykes and barriers were being reinforced to stop the “significantly wider” lava bed wrecking the main coastal road….

Wild Earth sciences. In addition, another one of those shiny silver 12 foot tall monoliths was spotted last week, in Wales, atop a knoll called Hay Bluff. But it is pretty clearly a clever knock off, so we won’t cover it (ref. 2020 and 2021 coverage). Onward!

In addition, the Buffs are waiting to hear if they’ve made the NCAAs — or if they are relegated to the NIT, after a tough loss to Oregon in the last ever PAC-12 championship game. Sending some mo jo to… Boulder, now! And that’s all the trivia I’ve got for the morning — with a newly-replaced 2021 masthead, from their last March Madness NCAA berth. Grin.

नमस्ते

Musk Did Reach Orbit, But His “Re-Entry” Stage Suffered An Anomaly, As The Main Capsule Reached Orbit.

Still, nice progress. The goal though, is perhaps over a decade off, now. See, the goal is boots on Mars. And for that, this failed stage / booster would need to remain in stable orbit, for an eventual crewed re-entry. Without it, the crew cannot get home.

So yes — this is still several iterations away from any crew headed toward the Red Planet. Here’s the rest, from NASA:

…As part of NASA’s Artemis campaign to return humans to the Moon for the benefit of all, the agency is working with SpaceX to develop the company’s Starship human landing system (HLS), which will land astronauts near the Moon’s South Pole during the Artemis III and Artemis IV missions. On March 14, SpaceX launched the third integrated flight test of its Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage, an important milestone toward providing NASA with a Starship HLS for its Artemis missions.

A complement of 33 Raptor engines, fueled by super-cooled liquid methane and liquid oxygen, powered the Super Heavy booster with Starship stacked on top, from the company’s Starbase orbital launch pad at 8:25 a.m. CDT. Starship, using six Raptor engines, separated from the Super Heavy booster employing a hot-staging technique to fire the engines before separation at approximately three minutes into the flight, in accordance with the flight plan. This was the third flight test of the integrated Super Heavy-Starship system….

“Storing and transferring cryogenic propellant in orbit has never been attempted on this scale before,” said Jeremy Kenny, project manager, NASA’s Cryogenic Fluid Management Portfolio at Marshall. “But this is a game-changing technology that must be developed and matured for science and exploration missions at the Moon, Mars, and those that will venture even deeper into our solar system.”

Under NASA’s Artemis campaign, the agency will land the first woman, first person of color, and its first international partner astronaut on the lunar surface and prepare for human expeditions to Mars….

Onward — life is a… journey — not a destination. Onward to St. Patrick’s… on this journey… smile.

नमस्ते

[U] Rigby Maguire Nails Ann Coulter — For Churlishly-Claiming A “Ouija Board” Libeled Her… Paul Mirengoff Chimed In, Ignorantly.

From the very cogent keyboard of one Rigby Maguire, then:

I had to comment on Paul’s post this week, credulously passing along Ann Coulter’s ridiculous assertion that the Gemini AI had defamed her.

First of all, AI is not a research tool. It’s incapable of doing any research or looking up facts. It’s a language predictor, essentially a souped-up version of your chat app’s predictive text function. There’s no liberal conspiracy, and to say an AI is making up “lies” about you is like saying a Ouija board is making up lies (Ed. note: flawless analogy!). It demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what AI is. Or it’s blatant hucksterism.

(In this case, I think “misunderstanding” describes Paul’s post, and “hucksterism” describes Anne’s.)

All of that said, Coulter complains (and Paul repeats) that the AI provided four areas of criticism of Coulter’s writing:

(1) “generalizations and stereotypes,” (2) “inflammatory rhetoric,” (3) “misinformation,” and (4) “normalization of harmful discourse.”

I don’t see how anybody could reasonably argue that this isn’t true, but both Coulter and Paul lament that the AI was unable to come up with a single specific examples of the above criticisms of Coulter’s rhetoric (even though that’s not AI’s purpose or function), and that the examples it did eventually come up with were false — in other words, the AI was functioning exactly as expected. I suspect the AI could come up with made-up quotes from Lincoln, Gandhi, and my imaginary friend, Mr. Sparkles. Coulter knows this. (Admittedly, Paul may not.)

And, of course, it’s laughably easy to come up with actual Coulter quotes that engage in generalizations and stereotypes, inflammatory rhetoric, misinformation, and normalization of harmful discourse.

For example:

When you bring [immigrants] here, you bring those cultures here. That includes honor killings, it includes uncles raping their nieces, it includes dumping litter all over, it includes not paying your taxes, it includes paying bribes to government officials. That isn’t our culture.

and:

But unfortunately for liberals, there is no racism in America. There is more cholera in America than there is racism. But they have to invent it.

and:

I don’t really like to think of [abortion provider George Tiller’s murder] as a murder. It was terminating Tiller in the 203rd trimester.

and:

No doctors who went to an American medical school will be accepting Obamacare.

And on and on and on. Obviously. [Ed. note — updated here, on 08.22.2024, with the latest excrement, from Ann Coulter’s keyboard, at right. Sheesh. That’s not… AI, either.]

Even if he doesn’t fully understand AI, t’s impossible to believe that Paul doesn’t know this about Coulter. Being willing to carry her rancid water for her makes Paul look like a buffoon.

I usually don’t engage over there, but I actually tried to comment on Paul’s post, but comments are restricted to paid subscribers.

Of course they are.

Anyway, sorry for the long, off-topic comment. I just had to get that off my chest.

Well said, my friend — well said.

Hinderaker… Silent — Now That Both Michigan Parents Have Been Convicted, In Their Son’s 9 mm 2021 Middle School Killing Spree.

Here below was my original item. I reprint it, because initially, Hinderaker had said it was “egregiously wrong” to charge the parents of the public Oxford Middle School / High School (in Oakland County, MI), citing his good NRA/gun nut buddies. But as more and more of the evidence became public, John shut up.

But he never once apologized for being 100% in the wrong. Not even after the pair foolishly tried to sneak off to Canada overland, out of Detroit — to avoid being arraigned on these very same charges — the ones they are both guilty on.

They are both going to do multiple decades in prison — as is the now nearly 18 year old shooter. It seems the parents were more focused on keeping their show horses in top condition, while ignoring a deeply disturbed son — and then buying the then 15 year old a powerfully deadly 9mm Sig-Sauer pistol — and not even bothering to lock it up when not under face to face adult supervision (as required by Michigan law). So… here we go:

Original dateline December 2021:

This may be slightly controversial, but in my opinion, it is entirely appropriate to charge these parents with involuntary manslaughter. [In my estimation, it is only “controversial” because we have (collectively) so rarely enforced these laws, as written — against parents. But today, that changes.]

Despite what will ultimately be impotent, and irrational howling from the far-right, and the gun lobby (but I repeat myself) — this may be the only way to stem school shootings by students: start holding their parents accountable, at least in cases of gross negligence / willful indifference, and in cases where local gun safety laws were plainly ignored, by these same parents. Here’s the latest:

…Prosecutors in Michigan took a rare step on Friday by filing involuntary manslaughter charges against the parents of the 15-year-old accused of fatally shooting four students in the halls of Oxford High School, according to court documents.

The office of Karen D. McDonald, the prosecutor in Oakland County, filed four charges of involuntary manslaughter against James and Jennifer Crumbley, one for each of the students killed.

Law enforcement authorities say that Mr. Crumbley legally bought the 9-millimeter Sig Sauer handgun four days before his son used it to carry out the country’s deadliest school shooting this year. Hours before the attack, he and his wife met with school officials who were concerned about their son’s behavior.

It is unclear how their son, Ethan, obtained the handgun and brought it to school. But law enforcement authorities say he walked out of a school bathroom on Tuesday afternoon armed with the semiautomatic pistol and three 15-round magazines….

The state law in Michigan required that weapon to be locked separately from any ammo, and the keys to be kept away from any minor, unless directly being supervised by an adult. See, Mich. Comp. Laws Serv. § 750.235a*. It would seem clear that law was broken, as the father only purchased the gun a week earlier. And the son had it in school, when called to a counselling meeting with his parents at the school the morning of the killings. This senseless killing must end. We must end it.

And if ultimately jailing parents… who ignore the law (for up to fifteen years) is required to do that, then so be it. Onward.

नमस्ते

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* Michigan also penalizes any person who, because of carelessness, recklessness or negligence… causes or allows any firearm under his or her immediate control to be discharged and kill or injure another person. Mich. Comp. Laws Serv. § 752.861.

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UPDATE @ 9:30 PM EST — And later this evening, there is a dispute about whether they are — or are not — felony fugitives from justice. Are they on the lam, or were they hiding for their own safety? Honestly. I. Don’t. Care.

You see — how this works is. . . when you are charged with felonies, law enforcement is free to come arrest you immediately, wherever they find you. The claim by their counsel is that they agreed to come in and be arraigned — if charged, and in return the DA would let them self-surrender. But the charges were announced. . . and poof!

As several hours passed, the defense lawyers admitted the couple was not replying to texts to come in, and surrender.

So the US Marshals and local police are conducting a fugitive hunt, as I type this, tonight. But their counsel says they will return to the area and come in voluntarily. It is likely too late for that, now. If they are found, on the road, they WILL be immediately arrested. There is a state wide alert out, for their black 2021 Kia Seltos SUV with the Michigan license plate number DQG 5203.

No, this is not like popping over to the precinct, “for tea”. . . they were overdue by this afternoon.

And so, a “slow white Bronco chase” may yet ensue. That is, wherever they are spotted, the arm of the law may catch up with them over the weekend — and in general, that will mean they will sit in the tank — until at least Monday midday arraignment.

It is also unlikely that the judge before whom they will ultimately appear to be arraigned will give them any credit, for any form of reasonably low bail — since s/he will not be inclined to believe the “we WERE on our way over for some tea, but got distracted” story.

Here’s the latest — but how clueless (as parents) do you have to be, to think it’s okay to go silent with a 15 year old son ALREADY charged as an adult — on four premeditated murder counts, and one terrorism count?

These two are. . . now in very deep. And deeper, by the minute — ever since they missed the Friday afternoon closing time, at the criminal court building in Oakland, Michigan — due to their own bad choices.

Namaste. . . so sad. And so. . . strange.

FINAL UPDATE — 2:45 AM Central: At about 2 AM EST, the Crumbleys’ black SUV was spotted on Detroit’s East Side. Within 20 minutes, the Crumbleys themselves were taken into custody — without incident, by US Marshals and Detroit’s finest.

Now. . . I can sleep.

Merck Has Asked For An “Inter Partes” Review, At The US Patent Office, Of Johns Hopkins’ Patents — Ones Hopkins Claims Read On… Keytruda.

As we have said for several years now, Rahway is not likely to lose patent protection much before 2040, on this ultra blockbuster franchise — and this step, as ably reported by Fierce Pharma, is designed to cement that outcome.

JHU sought four patents, all of which were granted by the USPTO examiner — and all of which, Merck correctly asserts were based on joint research with Merck — and funded entirely by Merck. The patents go to ways of making the agent more effective in a human body (dosing, etc.) which were in fact Merck’s prior art / know-how (unpatentable) from the clinical trials Merck funded and conducted. At best, JHU might argue it deserves a “tip” for filing on them, but it is unlikely that the JHU ‘356 ‘974,’975 and ‘219 patents will ultimately be held to require that Rahway must pay licenses, for them (if ultimately allowed to stand). It was primarily Merck’s effort that led to these method of use patent claims at JHU.

In any event back in 2022, in federal court in Maryland, Merck began litigation to invalidate these JHU patent claims. Here’s the latest, from Fierce:

…Merck is kicking its Keytruda-related clash with Johns Hopkins University (JHU) up a notch by asking the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) to weigh in following a 2022 complaint.

The drugmaker last week filed petitions for inter partes review proceedings on four Keytruda-related patents owned by JHU, JD Supra reported March 13.

Inter partes reviews essentially seek a determination on the validity of a patent. In Merck’s case, its petitions propose the patents as being obvious and anticipated by the prior art….

[Ed. nota bene — In Merck’s complaint, it stated “JHU faced repeated rejections (from the PTO) for the use of “wherein” in certain claims requiring an improved outcome comparison. In attempting to overcome the Patent Office’s rejections, JHU referred to the claim limitation, “wherein the patient exhibits an outcome that is improved as compared to a corresponding outcome that would be observed in a reference patient that has been administered pembrolizumab,” and represented that, “this clause” was necessary to prevent the claim from “simply requir[ing] giving an effective amount of pembrolizumab to a patient,” which would “effectively ignor[e] the unexpected relationship between MSI-high/MMR deficiency status and anti-PD-1 antibodies, as described in the specification.”

JHU argued that, to omit this clause from the presented claims, would “ignore a core concept disclosed in the specification: the unexpected relationship between MSI-high/MMR deficiency status and improved relative response to anti-PD-1 antibodies….” But in Condor’s estimation, these are not novel claims as made by JHU.]

Now you know — but at over $22 billion a year in cash revenue now, Merck is going to move forcefully to keep all interlopers off its playing field (even university affiliated ones) — by litigation, inter partes challenges and “evergreening” formula and delivery changes (like subcutaneous injection versions of the therapy)… into the 2040s time frame.

You read it here first. Onward, smiling — happy Pi Day ’24!

नमस्ते

Fascinating: I Would Not Have Thought This Need Be… Ordered.

I won’t mention in which specific federal case (but it is in a multi-billion dollar, nearly decade-running piece of federal class action litigation) this order was entered, but it seems at least in San Diego US District Courts… there has been a fall-off in the seriousness — with which at least some counsel have treated the federal court orders for “appearances” — when a given hearing is being held over Zoom.

To wit:

“…Chambers staff will circulate the Zoom invitation to all identified participants at least one day prior to the conference.

All participants shall display the same level of professionalism during the hearing and be prepared to devote their full attention to the hearing as if they were attending in person, including by dressing in appropriate courtroom attire. Participants should be prepared to appear on camera and should not be driving or otherwise in a car during the conference. Because Zoom may quickly deplete the battery of a participant’s device, each participant should ensure that their device is plugged in or that a charging cable is readily available during the videoconference.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Dated: March 13, 2024….”

In so, so many ways, COVID-19 seems to have changed the day to day workings of at least some litigators’ lives.

The idea that someone might wear sweats to federal court, for a hearing… just unimaginable, forever. . . prior to the advent of Zoom hearings.

Now you know. Crazy.

“Space Is Hard” (Again!) — A 59 Foot Privately-Funded Uncrewed Japanese Launch Vehicle (Solid Fueled)… Explodes On Liftoff, Today.

I must say it is admirable, that private industry continues to try, and try, to reach orbit. Especially our international friends.

But make no mistake… they call it… “rocket science” — for a reason. It is… daunting. Here’s the latest from NBC, after another Japanese private contractor “hard landed” on the moon eleven months ago, in another robotic mission disappointment.

…Space One’s small, solid-fueled Kairos rocket exploded shortly after its inaugural launch on Wednesday as the firm tried to become the first Japanese company to put a satellite in orbit.

The 59-foot, four-stage solid-fuel rocket exploded seconds after lifting off just after 11:01 a.m. (10:01 p.m. Tuesday ET), leaving behind a large loud of smoke, a fire, fragments of the rocket and firefighting water sprays near the launchpad, visible on local media livestreams of the launch on the tip of mountainous Kii peninsula in western Japan.

Space One said the flight was “interrupted” after the launch and that it was investigating the situation. There was no immediate indication of what caused the explosion….

Tokyo-based Space One was established in 2018 by a consortium of Japanese companies: Canon Electronics, the aerospace engineering unit of IHI, construction firm Shimizu and the state-backed Development Bank of Japan. Two of Japan’s biggest banks, Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho, also own minority stakes….

Now you know — and our sincere condolences go out to Space1’s whole team. But pick yourself up, and dust yourself off — and try. . . again. Onward.

नमस्ते

Scott Johnson — Full Of Bluster — And Not Much Else.

Scott seems to forget… he is ostensibly a… US citizen.

Um… Not an Israeli one.

Even so, he ought to take Bibi’s own advice — switched back to remind him where his allegiance ought to first lie (I’ve reversed Bibi’s nouns):

“…Those who elect the president of the United States prime minister of Israel are the citizens of Israel the United States, and no one else. Israel is not entitled to tell the US what it may or may not do, to end the daily atrocities, now in Gaza protectorate of the US but as the US is an independent and democratic country whose citizens are the ones who elect the government.

And the US government will decide how to protect innocent civilians in land that does not belong to Israel. We expect our friends [like Scott Johnson] to act to overthrow end the terror inflicted by IDF regime of Hamas and not the elected government in Israel of the United States….”

Do take heed — and take care — Mr. Johnson. We are watching, and if you don’t like how Mr. Biden conducts foreign affairs, your redress is at the ballot box come November. But over 7 million more Americans sided with Biden’s views last time around, than the Dotard’s.

So until that changes, why don’t you go to Israel and join the fight for Bibi, if hearing the candid assessment of our own intel on the ground around this all… vexes you so?

Thesis: AI (At Least In Its Current Iteration) For Financial Analysis… Is Largely… Useless — Merck Edition.

But I did find the goofy / freebie graphic (see derivative version at lower right), in an otherwise useless piece of fluff… at least interesting, as a way to think of Merck’s vast financial prowess. [The company generates a 73% gross margin, or over $10 billion cash, each year now.]

The AI generated content / editor was arguing that the flow meant Merck’s dividend was at risk. That’s preposterous, as we’ve said a few times before. But what it does highlight, is mostly the opposite case: Merck’s vast cash flows are largely (and appropriately) managed, globally to minimize tax exposures.

And even so, it generated $10.5 billion in gross income before taxes last year. Were it willing to pay hefty repatriation taxes, a far larger number would flow to the bottom line, and be “brought home” as EPS each year. But it makes more sense to keep investing that money in Europe and the UK and Asia… to grow its overall businesses’ profits in lower-tax jurisdictions.

So, what the AI chart actually shows… is only that, if Merck didn’t mind paying more in income taxes in the US, it could instantly increase (not cut!) the dividend. But its yield is still pretty nice and fat (and has been above 4% for most of the last 12 or so years — that is an early legacy 2012 graphic, at right!), even with the stock sitting above $120/share on the NYSE most mornings, now. So… all in all, a “complete do over” for that AI engine. Cheers.

नमस्ते

Trivia Break — We Always Enjoy a Great Slice… But We’ll Wait Until 1:59 pm, Tomorrow — While Many Others Awaken At 1:59 am, To Celebrate…

I do love math — yep, I’m a math nerd.

I devour off-kilter coincidences — sometimes found in numbers. So, a small confession: quite a long while ago, while at the hospital awaiting the birth of our middle son (things were stalled at that point, so — while watching Jordan get 45 in the Garden, and the purple M&M introduction turn the Empire State Building that shade)… on a scrap of paper, I started sorting the digits of Pi into a pyramid. And it turns out that… if you break the top nine lines of the “pyramid” at the right spots, the edges are all identical. For at least the first 11 or so lines; and it forms a near perfect triangle, depending on the font.

Then, plainly overjoyed with my second’s arrival, I promptly forgot about that scrap of paper, from the delivery room.

And… several decades later, one of my brothers picked up on the thought — which I mentioned in a passing phone conversation. As he had lots of time on his hands, the mug at right resulted. Okay, now you know.

I won’t rise at nearly 2 am — I will wait until mid afternoon tomorrow — but trust that I will partake of a slice of tart cherry pie, when I do. I’ll wash it down with hot coffee and cream.

And think of the three dimensional pyramids, somewhere still lost to the sands of time — and wonder whether the Egyptians or the Kushites… carved these same repeating-edge digits into the stone blocks on the corners (in some language we can no longer read).

Whoosh. Enjoy, one and all, come tomorrow — whenever you celebrate that most useful of numbers!

नमस्ते