Category: Uncategorized

So, Hey Billingsley: “Is This Your… Genuine De-escalation?!”

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I just note for the record that Billingsley sees Mr. Biden as (Soviet Cold War / Bay of Pigs) Brezhnev, tonight.

Not exactly trying to treat all Americans as neighbors and friends, I gather. He’s already widely hinted that somehow Mr. Biden tried to kill Tangerine yesterday.

And that the shooter was part of a vast conspiracy (wholly unexplained and undocumented). [I won’t link that one of last night. It is… execrable.]

Overall — and consistently… what a feckless… putz, the gnome is.

[I should note in closing that Hinderaker (who never served, BTW) wanted to tell us within minutes of the shooting… what an expert on rooftop antiballistic security in large, crowded expanses he is. But of course. An ex-lawyer that thinks he’s an expert on… everything. How surprising. Not.]

Out.

We Now See That (Maybe) Dark Matter Equations Need Not Break The Standard Cosmological Models… Excellent New Analysis Of Hubble Data.

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We almost always learn the most, when things do not turn out as… expected. Doubly so, in interstellar space science.

The qualities and behavior of dark matter, the invisible “glue” of the universe, continue to be shrouded in mystery. Though galaxies are mostly made of dark matter, understanding how it is distributed within a galaxy offers clues to what this substance is, and how it’s relevant to a galaxy’s evolution. This is one of those “enlightening moment” cases, based on a deeper look at some rather old Hubble data — from NASA’s Hubble team — do read it all:

…To learn about dark matter within a galaxy, scientists can look to its stars and their movements that are dominated by the pull of dark matter. A common approach to measure the speed of objects moving in space is by the Doppler Effect – an observed change of the wavelength of light if a star is approaching or receding from Earth. Although this line-of-sight velocity can provide valuable insight, only so much can be gleaned from this one-dimensional source of information.

Besides moving closer or further away from us, stars also move across the sky, measured as their proper motion. By combining line-of-sight velocity with proper motions, the team created an unprecedented analysis of the stars’ 3D movements.

“Improvements in data and improvements in modeling usually go hand in hand,” explained Roeland van der Marel of STScI, a co-author of the paper who initiated the study more than 10 years ago. “If you don’t have very sophisticated data or only one-dimensional data, then relatively straightforward models can often fit. The more dimensions and complexity of data you gather, the more complex your models need to be to truly capture all the subtleties of the data….”

This is excellent new work. And this entry puts us back on the footing of good, scientific space ju ju — here in our little shop.

I will predict a very “locked down” Milwaukee — and perhaps even a short form convention, this week, for the GOP. Onward.

नमस्ते

Texas Ranked Worst State In Nation — By Far, On “Livabilty” Factors. John?!

~ condor ~ 1 Comment

I want to leave this here — since Hineraker so often touts it as a state that “works”.

Only for straight, younger whyte males with money, who identify as Republicans — apparently. [Fully one-fifth of all Texan adults have health care bills that have been sent to collections. By and large, they are not (uniformly) dead-beats. The Texas for profit promoting health care system forces people to sign over assets before entering a hospital for care. This is a monster of a policy. Intentional, by Gov. Abbott. Damn.]

But there is much more — do see this [and I’d note that Tennessee sits right near the bottom, with Texas — on all these dimensions. Do not lose a job there, or get… sick. Ugh.]:

…Yes, we know. People are moving to the Lone Star State in droves. Some 220,000 educated workers moved there in 2022 alone, according to the Census Bureau. So how could we possibly score Texas at the bottom for Quality of Life? The fact is that people move to a state for any number of reasons. The ones arriving in Texas are encountering some serious livability issues, based on the data.

Take something as basic as health care. Texas ranks near the bottom in primary care providers per 100,000 residents at 182, according to the United Health Foundation. According to The Commonwealth Fund, Texas leads the nation — by far — in residents without health insurance, and a staggering 19% of all people with a credit score in Texas have medical debt that has gone to collections.

Those new Texans are also finding few protections in the law. Texas is another state with no public accommodation law barring discrimination against non-disabled people; it has passed a barrage of laws targeting the LGBTQ+ community; and its abortion ban is the strictest in the nation. Also, if any of those new Texas residents lose their jobs, state unemployment benefits cover less than 10% of the average cost of living, according to Oxfam America.

Might Texas’ restrictive policies trigger a backlash? There are some anecdotal accounts of people leaving the state over its abortion ban and its anti-LGBTQ+ laws. But for now, statistically speaking, people keep pouring into the state with America’s worst quality of life….

I realize that Hinderaker thinks no one but land owning whyte males, voting R — are the ones who “matter”. He’s in for a rude awakening in November.

See ya, chump.

We Have (Rightfully) Been A Harsh Critic — But This IS NOT How We Solve Our Differences, In America. Period.

~ condor ~ 1 Comment

Reports from the MSM are 100% consistent — to the effect that he is safe, and largely unharmed.

There will be no graphic here. [UPDATED — We will re-run the Hinderaker arson graphic, because we feel the same way about this, as we do about the January 2024 firebombing of Hinderaker’s offices in Minnesota. This has no place in American policy / political discussions or jaw-boning.]

And just as we said about J6, this sort of senseless violence has no place in our politics.

We condemn it — and we look forward to beating this man at the polls in November. We oppose his policies; and that will be the reason he loses in November — we have nothing else.

नमस्ते

And Again, The Feds Have A Far Better (Law of The Case) Answer To Texas’s Latest Foray, In Floating Razor Wire Cases…

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As Anon. indicated earlier this week (in comments), the fairest, “Occam’s Razor” inference here, as to these Texas state officials, is that they are just throwing endless stacks of meaningless paper up, over the transom, into the District Court, in the hope of delaying a final outcome — past the November election (and a vain hope that Tangerine will applaud their torturous floating razor wire in the Rio Grande, and dismiss the federal suit). Erh… good luck with all that.

Overnight, the US border patrol authorities answered Texas’s latest nonsense thus — do go read it all:

…Texas’s “invasion” defense, like its counterclaim, seeks to reinject a legal argument into these proceedings that the Court has already considered and squarely rejected twice.

Texas offers no good reason why the Court should reconsider its prior rulings on the meaning of the U.S. Constitution’s State War Clause, U.S. Const. art. I, § 10, cl. 3, or that clause’s effect on the present case. Instead, Texas’s response brief merely confirms that the State intends to consume the Court’s and the parties’ time at trial by presenting evidence addressing whether Texas has been “actually invaded” under the State War Clause. ECF 150 at 9 (arguing “Texas should be permitted to introduce evidence of terrorist incursions and paramilitary forces crossing the border”); see also ECF 125 (discussing fact and expert witnesses Texas has disclosed whose testimony will focus on “invasion” arguments).

The Court should strike this defense and prevent the needless and distracting expenditure of time and resources on this issue at trial….

Every court to consider Gov. Abbott’s and AG Paxton’s claims that Texas gets “magical, mystical” special rights of some sort, simply by alleging — but never proving — that it is being “invaded” by some hostile foreign military force… has laughed them out of court.

So it will be here, as well. Onward.

नमस्ते

Joe Biden Will Win By 3%… Hinderaker Knows It.

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We told you so.

When (as now) the dust settles, immediately after Tangerine fatuously claims over and over that he doesn’t know anything about the Heritage Foundation’s “America 2025” plan — despite over 140 of his high level associates from 2016 to 2020 having signed on for it…

Americans realize a sociopath is not what they want.

Joe may be grandfatherly — but he is no mobster / felon with designs on being a king. Again.

Don’t believe me? Then believe John Hinderaker, tonight:

…The NPR/PBS News/Marist College national poll released Friday found 50% of registered voters nationwide support the Biden 2024 candidacy, while 48% back Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Just 2% remain undecided….

It’s actually a wider lead for Mr. Biden than that, as we showed earlier this week — via Nate Silver.

John knows it. Sure it’s one poll… but the trend here is what matters: rational, truly patriotic American people will choose just about… anyone — head to head, over Trump.

Hilarious. Yep. Game… over — and Tangerine will be sentenced four weeks before Election Day.

Now you know.

Why Would Elon Leave Starlink Sats Where They Could Rain Back Down On Earthlings?! Missions Go Awry, But This Seems Irresponsible.

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Late last night, Musk wrote on X-itter that the Falcoln-9’s upper stage engine suffered a “Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly“. In plainer English, the engine exploded, after a leak in the seals on the liquid oxygen assembly caused large “oxygen ice” chunks to form — on the outside nozzle of the Merlin Vacuum upper stage engine. That likely was the cause of the explosion.

Sure — space is hard. Missions go awry. And in general, Musk’s SpaceX program has been the most reliable private hauling workhorse around. But who made the decision to throw 20 Starlink satellites into an unsafe, very low-Earth orbit? That’s what I want to know. Here’s the story — do go read it all:

…After departing Vandenberg to begin SpaceX’s Starlink 9-3 mission, the rocket’s reusable first stage booster propelled the Starlink satellites into the upper atmosphere, then returned to Earth for an on-target landing on a recovery ship parked in the Pacific Ocean. A single Merlin Vacuum engine on the rocket’s second stage fired for about six minutes to reach a preliminary orbit.

A few minutes after liftoff of SpaceX’s Starlink 9-3 mission, veteran observers of SpaceX launches noticed an unusual build-up of ice around the top of the Merlin Vacuum engine, which consumes a propellant mixture of super-chilled kerosene and cryogenic liquid oxygen. The liquid oxygen is stored at a temperature of several hundred degrees below zero.

Numerous chunks of ice fell away from the rocket as the upper stage engine powered into orbit, but the Merlin Vacuum, or M-Vac, engine appeared to complete its first burn as planned. A leak in the oxidizer system or a problem with insulation could lead to ice accumulation, although the exact cause, and its possible link to the engine malfunction later in flight, will be the focus of SpaceX’s investigation into the failure. . . .

Telemetry from the Falcon 9 rocket indicated it released the Starlink satellites into an orbit with a perigee just 86 miles (138 kilometers) above Earth, roughly 100 miles (150 kilometers) lower than expected, according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and trusted tracker of spaceflight activity….

[As the graphic at lower right indicates, this is the second recent stage two rocket failure Musk has seen on Falcon 9 — we noted the earlier one, in March 2024, here.]

And, I would be willing to bet my last dollar that the decision to deploy the 20 satellites despite the failure to reach a correct orbit… was not made without Mr. Musk’s final say-so. Onward… but that is emblematic of his decision-making in the last eight or so years. Baffling. Out.

नमस्ते

From The Hilarious Files: Texans’ SB-4 Sparring, In Fifth Cir. — The Feds Win This One. [And All The Other Ones, Too.]

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Just as in 2012 in Arizona, this measure is DOA — and we’ve said so from the start.

It is unconstitutional… on its face. The Supremes said so, in essentially identical circumstances in 2012. But today, AG Paxton sought to tell the Fifth Circuit that an unrelated case decided this term by the Supremes, on facial challenges meant the Fifth got it wrong, and Texas state troopers, and city cops, alone — of all the 50 states — may demand that every brown person (and. . . only the brown people!) “show their papers” — even if they are just out to buy groceries (for example). Here’s the able US Attorneys’ office response:

…Texas’s June 25 Rule 28(j) letter references the Supreme Court’s decision in United States v. Rahimi, No. 22-915 (Jun. 21, 2024). That decision does not advance Texas’s cause.

In Rahimi, the Supreme Court applied settled law to evaluate a facial challenge to the constitutionality of a statute. See Slip Op. 8 (quoting United States v. Salerno, 481 U.S. 739, 745 (1987)). As this Court recognized at the stay stage, SB 4 is facially invalid because there is “no set of circumstances” under which SB4 could be enforced consistent with federal law. See United States v. Texas, 97 F.4th 268, 294 (5th Cir. 2024) (quoting Salerno, 481 U.S. at 745). The district court therefore did not err in enjoining enforcement of SB 4. See ROA.542–73….

Now you know. Texas has elected a governor (and an attorney general) that plainly either (i) do not understand the US Constitution [and federalism, after US v. Arizona, 567 U.S. 387 (2012)], or (more likely) (ii) simply have decided to ignore it all, and pretend that they too [like Tangerine] are monarchs over a kingdom they call… Texas.

And so… it may be time to hand all that land back to Mexico — and say… Go ahead: “feel free to take whatever isn’t nailed down“….

These lawless jamokes no longer want to live under our federal wings (of protection), we graciously provide? Fine.

Fair enough, I’d say. Maybe it is time to just let the rest of the world… have at ’em…. /SNARK

नमस्ते

Things That Will Not… Last: Powerline-loons ’24 Edition

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The “wall to wall“, for the next few days there will be all about purported “disarray” in the ranks of the Democratic party. For this proposition, the thoughts of George Clooney will be front and center. [Burping along the same lines, will be the fired / alum there, Paul Mirengoff, as well. UPDATED — and Stevie.]

Okay. Enjoy the moment boys. This too, shall pass. Mr. Clooney is certainly entitled to his opinions, and he may move his donations to whomever and wherever… he pleases.

Candidly, though his are heartfelt, I am not deeply swayed… that he possesses the foreign relations chops to understand the import of his own remarks. That’s okay. We are a pluralistic society. We will sort his, and all others’ views… in due course.

Whether we see what will be the first woman of color — as President in 2024, or our current leader — make no mistake: Tangerine will never hold that office again.

And every day that no one writes about Trump’s manifest unfitness — on the dimensions of competence, morality — and selfless judgment of characters he hires (and fires)… is a good day for the Powerline boys.

But yes, son… this, too… shall pass.

Out.

Hinderaker Tonight Touts Polls That Oversample GOP Households. Yawn.

~ condor ~ 1 Comment

In the last four cycles, the polls Hinderaker most often cited… (cough, Rasmussen!)… were ultimately (and, wildly)… wrong — after Election Day results were known.

In fact, Mr. Biden won 2020 by much larger margins than John had in mind / said (he in fact predicted, with Rasmussen, a Tangerine win).

Didn’t happen.

Same thing, but more pronounced, in 2022 mid-terms: the GOP significantly underperformed their polling. Yawn.

So we’ll just chuckle, and/or yawn… at Hinderaker tonight.

He’s just bloviating (again).

Indeed, Nate Silver, at the far more accurate 538 (because it recognizes modern problems in poll numbers, and adjusts for the biases old school hard line poll numbers now have embedded in them)… rates Mr. Biden likely to win by 3 points. That is, after the news cycles, the June debate hasn’t changed things much.

Read all of his latest — and a bit:

…[T]he 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.

538’s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called “fundamentals” because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased.

The other big factor explaining our model’s relative stability is the flurry of swing-state polls that were published over the weekend, most good for Biden. The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today…

Now you know. Bub-bye John. Out.