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Hinderaker Tells The World Why Tangerine Will Now Lose, In 90 Days — Just Like 2020!

~ condor ~ 2 Comments

Tonight, Hinderaker makes Harris/Walz an “even money” bet to beat Tangerine.

I think he’s kidding himself. It’s 70-30, with Harris/Walz favored.

Tangerine has lost it. He now suffers multiple, daily melt-downs, about wholly irrelevant matters, when speaking in public — on camera, for the world to see. He yammers on for 20 minutes at a clip, about trivial and largely only perceived slights — of over a decade past.

In sum, in the renewed race — he’s become the befuddled cantankerous bitter old whyte dude he tried to make Mr. Biden out to be.

And then he spends time hawking everything from bobble-head dolls, to tennis shoes to posters… to largely fraudulent crypto- Sh!tcoins with his imprints.

The guy has…lost it. Even John sez so:

…[C]an [Harris] be defeated by a disorganized and undisciplined Donald Trump? I doubt it.

Trump needs to get on his game, or he is likely to lose….

That ship has already sailed. Trump has no… remaining game. He’s DOA.

Cheers, John.

The Gardasil® / China Inventory Build Up… Seems Due To Xi’s Renewed Efforts To “Crack Down” On In-Country Distributors’ Profits — In Pharma…

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As many regular readers well-know, Merck’s “In-China” distributor for vaccines is the company imaged at top right of the graphic, called Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co. [I won’t bore you with the Kanji version of the name — but we’ve covered the franchise since 2008 (just search “Gardasil®” above left).]

Well, it seems that company has been in discussions with state actors in China (Xi’s people), about what is regarded as too high a middleman’s markup, on the Rahway HPV vaccine. That in turn has led to hospital (and other provider) customers slowing stock-up orders, for Chinese consumers.

And it is not at all clear whether Xi intends to try to nationalize the entire pharma distribution chain/effort, or whether he just wants price breaks — for government-affiliated purchasers (which would be essentially… all wholesale purchasers in China). But it is slowing down the restocking Merck usually sees by mid-year in the country. To be clear, this isn’t likely to materially affect Merck’s full year profitability, though (if it persists) it may trim about ~$1 billion — from the ~$63 billion in full year expected sales revenue, for the whole company (net of currency translations). Here’s what’s known so far (courtesy BioSpace) — which is to say… not much is really known:

…On the earnings call, Merck CFO Caroline Litchfield said there was a “significant step down” in shipments from its distributor in China, causing “above-normal inventory levels” of Gardasil. The vaccine’s Chinese distributor, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., had apparently sold less of the HPV vaccine than in past quarters….

Zhifei, specializes in producing and distributing medicines, particularly vaccines. Zhifei and Merck struck a deal back in 2012 to distribute Gardasil in China, with Zhifei contracting to buy specific amounts of the vaccine, Fierce Pharma reported. Zhifei inked another contract last year to distribute five of Merck’s vaccines, including Gardasil, until 2026, in a deal worth over $14 billion, according to Yicai Global.

Merck CEO Robert Davis said on the earnings call that based on the intelligence that the company gathered, Gardasil’s sales have been affected by China’s anti-bribery and anti-corruption drive. Last year, China started a wide-scale anti-corruption campaign targeting hospitals, the pharmaceutical industry and insurance companies….

But as ever, China is an… enigma. The mountains are high, and the Emperor is very far away. That is, just as China officially banned Bitcoin mining over three years ago, as a waste of electricity (a state resource)… many studies place China as the No. 1 Bitcoin mining producer, to this day — and accelerating. [The electricity is being tapped “before it reaches any reported metering” that the government in Beijing could monitor.] One can never tell if it is all just state-affiliated actors driving out all non-party competitors.

And that could be the case here — Gardasil has long been a very robust seller in China, as people there are more likely to see long term effects, from any untreated HPV. [No one can be sure why, that is so — but it does look like there maybe some genetic components — of particular suseptibility.] So longer term, Xi will be a buyer of the vaccine — even if the channel of distribution is being “reformed”. Onward. More — if and when we get more granular clarity. But it should not deeply impact the NYSE trading prices. Cheers.

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Hinderaker Attacks Walz’ Cred — As A Military Man?! Really? “Bone Spurs”, Anyone?!

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This stuff just writes itself.

The Governor of Minnesota served with distinction — for over two decades. He was coming up on 50 years of age, when he declined to be deployed to Iraq.

If this is damning… John please remind me: did “Old Bone Spurs” ever serve?! Nope — he dodged the draft (as did John and Paul and Scott).

But hey — young Tangerine was in a reform camp/school as a middle schooler where he had to wear a uniform; and march — in upstate NY – but that’s all. He was an able bodied 20-something when he took six deferrals — never served in Vietnam. But he was no doubt fit.

And yet, Hinderaker thinks a normal retirement from the National Guard at nearly 50, after more than two decades of distinguished service is something to attack the incoming Veep for?! That’s… in a word, astonishing.

Oh — and Tangerine said sleeping with tons of women he met in discos — in the early 70s… was his “Vietnam” danger tour. Utterly… charming. The Green Berets from Minturn, Colorado, from that Vietnam era — would like to catch him in a dark alley… or in broad daylight — and get him sorted right out.]

The clueless idiocy on display tonight betrays a rising fear… a fear that Tangerine has already lost.

Hilarious!

The Boys Are Runnin’… Scared. And They Should Be. As More And More GOP Mayors Are Saying “Character Matters”.

~ condor ~ 1 Comment

Tonight, John offers us a “mobsters’ code” reason… get this! to dislike Tim Walz. Hinderaker says he’s a “snitch”. Whoah. It doesn’t matter that it is a preposterously false complaint — no, what matters… is that John’s marching orders, from MAGA / Trumpian land… are to condemn the Democratic Veep nominee… for NOT adhering to the code of obstruction of justice Tangerine has ever held dear.

A M A Z I N G. [Can you imagine Dwight Eisenhower saying — of a local political opponent — “Hey — I hate that guy, ‘cuz he snitched on people, about their serious crimes” — as though that would be a dishonorable thing to do? Doesn’t John believe in the old Red Scare (then later, post-9/11) line “if you see something, say something”?]

These guys confirm daily that Trump is a criminal enterprise. Nothing more.

And Mirengoff echoes the idea: character should no longer matter, in GOP candidates — getting the whyte supremacist core vote is all that matters (the GOP’s only chance for a win). And so, he and John will never again expect a GOP candidate to present, with… upstanding character. Jaw-slacking, that.

But no — the central reason I write tonight, is to note that the Republican mayor of Mesa, AZ and several others are now saying they WILL NOT vote the GOP top of ticket — they will vote Harris.

Here’s the money quote out of Arizona, tonight:

…Mesa’s Mayor John Giles splashed onto the national political scene this week after he crossed party lines and urged Arizona Republicans to vote against former President Donald Trump and support Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

“Donald Trump has demonstrated he lacks the character, lacks the commitment to the rule of law, to the United States Constitution to qualify as an elected official, let alone as president of the United States,” Giles said….

Because at some point, the GOP-er of principles, like Romney in 2020… won’t help crooks.

Moreover, this afternoon, perhaps Gov. Walz’s best one liner was “Make no mistake, crime was up while Trump was President — and that’s not even counting HIS OWN CRIMES!!!”

It received thunderous applause.

John and Paul ought to take heed — as should Steve and Scott and Lloyd.

The tide is now going out, and their guy has been swimming (solely, at his own rallies, for years) without swimming trunks.

Soon, all of the decent (dare I say… truly God-fearing?) people of real good will see… he is naked. Someone their God will not want them to support, even if he’s going to give these billionaires their tax breaks.

Out.

Another Trump-Adjacent Crypto-Con, Yesterday?! Seems… Likely — Using His Youngest Son…

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Some times, history doesn’t echo — but it… rhymes. [See the August 2022 alleged “rug pull”, right about when he needed to pay about $300,000, in cash legal fees.]

Or, subtitled: It Would Be A Fascinating Coincidence, If Mr. Shkreli’s Recent Venture Has Banked That $2 Million He Announced Last Week… Tonight.

Yep, this is on the supposed-Barron Trump controlled sh!tcoin called “DJT”. And Martin’s own bleating about his involvement in the same. [See chart at right — from about 14 hours ago.]

So — here’s at least one version of the tale — from the crypto-bro press outlets:

…The Donald Trump-themed DJT token on Solana dropped 90% earlier Tuesday after a single wallet sold $2 million worth in a single transaction, bringing its market capitalization down to $3 million from $55 million within seconds.

The wallet ‘4UGm6’ held 20% of the DJT token supply and pocketed 15,500 SOL from the transaction. It then transferred the holdings to four different wallets, crypto social application @0xppl_ said….

The Trump campaign has not officially commented on the matter or Barron’s involvement in the token.

Meanwhile, at least one large holder in both DJT and Shoggoth.ai, Shkreli’s other project, had been profiting when he was publicly backing the token. One large DJT holder sold nearly $830,000 worth of DJT from a wallet that held millions of dollars worth of SHOGGOTH tokens around June 19….

Nevertheless, Shkreli appeared to blame Barron for Tuesday’s price drop. He repeatedly claimed he did not hold any DJT tokens and did not share access to the private keys that controlled its liquidity pools.

“Ask Barron, i don’t have the keys or any tokens,” he claimed in an X post when asked for comment alongside a graph showing the token’s price drop. “I helped make it with understand (sic) it was the official trump token, not that this would happen,” he said in a reply to another X post….

Well… we shall see. If Martin is suddenly able to pay his lawyers… well, that will speak for itself.

He did claim last week that one of his ventures had secured (coincidentally!) a “$2 million” seed investment. That would correspond with a closing and funding, today, Tuesday… August 6, 2024.

So maybe that “investment” was just Mr. Shkreli’s “consulting payment” (from a friendly third party) for structuring the DJT token offering. But no matter how you slice it, he is not allowed to work in the investment securities markets promoting any Howey security, or making money from doing so — even by structuring offerings, under his SEC life time banning order, via the 2018 Brooklyn federal civil securities fraud charges, all from the pen of the able USDC Judge Matsumoto.

F A S C I N A T I N G.

So, for Martin, it doesn’t even have to be a “rug-pull“ — to be unlawful.

Y I K E S.

[And yes, this is (in Condor’s opinion) what happens when felons… run for high office: every other felon latches on, knowing the “sorting out” — of who did what, when… will befuddle the authorities. And after all, in for a penny — in for a pound.]

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Cygnus Resupply Module Now At Home — As A Part Of The ISS. Flawless Mission Completion.

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Yes — I confess. I am a nerd. I set an alarm and woke, at about 2:05 am local — and watched it from my iPhone (complete with NASA-TV screen grabs at right).

I am very pleased to report that the slight delay in firing the engines did not affect the mission in any lasting way. Here’s the latest:

…Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft installation on the International Space Station is complete at 5:33 a.m. EDT.

The spacecraft carried 8,200 pounds of scientific investigations and cargo to the orbiting laboratory for Northrop Grumman’s 21st commercial resupply mission for NASA.

The mission launched at 11:02 a.m. Aug. 4 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Cygnus will remain at the space station until January when it departs the orbiting laboratory at which point it will dispose of several thousand pounds of debris through its re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere where it will harmlessly burn up….

Onward — grinning….

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Let’s Let Paul Mirengoff Tell You Why The GOP Will Lose In 2024 — He Is… Spot On!

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Without any ado — this is worth reading. One thing Paul has been pretty good about is seeing Tangerine for who he is — and who he’ll never be. He will never unify this GOP:

…For decades, the GOP was known as “the stupid party.” I went along with the joke, but never thought Republicans were less intelligent than Democrats.

Until the party’s lengthy love affair with Donald Trump.

It’s not just that Trump is an appallingly dishonest narcissist. It’s also that he has led the party to three consecutive defeats, yet is still its champion.

Trump did pull off a narrow victory in 2016… [but since?]

We do know that Republicans have suffered three consecutive election defeats with Trump as their champion. The 2018 and 2020 defeats were referenda on his character and presidency. The 2022 election was decided by a referendum on the weak, and in some cases ridiculous [Herschel Walker!], candidates he propelled to nomination for key Senate seats.

All three elections went poorly. Yet, the Republicans have nominated Trump again.

How did it happen? The answer resides to a significant extent in the most damning fact about Republican intelligence. Trump managed, without sufficient evidence, to convince a big majority of Republicans that his defeat was not legitimate….

Ninety-three days before the election, Trump decided to attack the sitting Republican Governor of Georgia and his wife. Kemp had already said he’d support Trump in 2024….

I love it. And his racist, ad hominem attacks (as Paul notes) on the first woman of color at the top of either party’s ticket… are already dooming him. He is a shallow vain narcissistic felon — now likely to be sentenced before the election.

Flawless.

Hinderaker’s “Reality Distortion Bubble”. Again.

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The upshot here is that John preposterously thinks Putin fears Tangerine.

Nope. It is equally likely that Putin OWES Trump a prior bribe’s payoff, a marker he doesn’t want called. [Add to that that Putin is reasonably unsure as to whether Trump will ever take office again. So Putin may never have to “make good” on that marker.]

In any event, the most salient evidence that Hinderaker’s take is silly is that German cooperation was needed to seal this deal (Putin desperate to get his assassin back) — and Trump regularly shows himself to be an all out enemy — of Germany.

So all sides knew that there could be no reasonable outcome around a Tangerine back in power.

Per the WSJ:

…Germany’s Scholz would no longer be willing to help a president who rarely misses an opportunity to criticize Germany…

The final nail in the coffin, to Hinderaker’s “reality distortion bubble“ telling of the story, though is that Tangerine himself criticize the deal and criticized Mr. Biden for it, immediately after it was announced.

Yet this past weekend — as the deal aged in a bit — Trump at a rally praised of all people, Vladimir Putin for doing the deal — calling Putin, “a genius”. why would Tangerine do that?! [Specifically praising the return of a known assassin, to an enemy / dictator, strikes me as uniquely non-patriotic for a candidate for 1600 Penn.]

The very straightforward reading of that Tangerine remark, is that even Trump knows Germany would not have given Trump the operating room — to release an assassin from Germany — to Mr. Putin.

But it is absolutely true that Germany wants to aid both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

That’s all there is to this story, despite John’s burping to try and convince us that it is like Jimmy Carter and Iran.

What a putz.

Cygnus Mission 21 Back On Schedule — Arrival At ISS In Wee Hours Tuesday: Northrup Grumman Engines Finally Were Fired, As Planned.

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Updated, 08.05.2024 — 4 PM EDT: “…The Cygnus spacecraft has completed two delta velocity burns, and it remains on track for a capture by the space station’s robotic arm slated for 3:10 a.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 6. The spacecraft is in a safe trajectory, and all other systems are operating normally.

Shortly after launch on Sunday, the spacecraft performed as designed by cancelling a scheduled engine burn due to a slightly low initial pressure reading flagged by the Cygnus onboard detection system. Engineers at Northrop Grumman’s mission control center in Dulles, Virginia evaluated the pressure reading, confirmed it was acceptable and re-worked the burn plan to arrive at the space station on the originally planned schedule….” End, updated portion.

. . .Shortly after launch, the spacecraft missed its first burn slated for 11:44 a.m. due to a late entry to burn sequencing. Known as the targeted altitude burn, or TB1, it was rescheduled for 12:34 p.m., but aborted the maneuver shortly after the engine ignited due to a slightly low initial pressure state.

Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft completed the deployment of its two solar arrays at 2:21 p.m. EDT after launching at 11:02 a.m. Aug. 4 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida to the International Space Station for NASA…. The team aims to achieve the spacecraft’s original capture time on station, which is currently slated for 3:10 a.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 6….

Space is… hard. It leaves me again marvelling, at all the Apollo missions, and most of the Mercury ones… that went off exactly as drawn up. Amazing — those were wildly-capable engineers, without a doubt. More, after the snag is completed –by / on Wed. morning. Onward.

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