Hey Scott/John/Steve: I Don’t Think Deja Vu Means What You “Hope” It Means…

As we wait patiently for the post-weekend polling — which will estimate the size of the Harris | Walz post convention “bump” in popularity (if not necessarily swing state electoral votes, yet)… [but we do know that TV-viewership of the four-day festivities in Chicago drew an average of 21.8 million viewers, according to Nielsen data, eclipsing the audience of the Republican National Convention by nearly 15 percent].

I am pretty sure the Powerline boys will come to regret labeling this as a “deja vu” campaign. The echos are strong, to be sure: McCain (very old, albeit far more honorable than Tangerine, in demeanor) v. brilliant, young, vital, idealistic Mr. Obama… then in desperation, Mr. McCain added a wildly-unpopular, inexperienced, unserious running mate in Sarah Palin (sounds a lot like JD Vance!)… and lost in a landslide.

In his own national elections, Mr. Obama never lost. Not once, stretching back to his Senate run. He served two full terms, and was term-limited out. His greatest offense (apparently — according to Fox and the GOP!) was… wearing a tan suit. [They lost their minds.]

In national elections, Trumpism has gone 0-3 of late. Soon to be 0-4. And he’s a convicted felon and widely-notorious reprobate. Oh — and he’s 78 years old (karma is a b!tch — the age barb / bomb he lobbed at Mr. Biden, is now his own albatross). Kamala is nearly thirty years younger than he is — just like Sen. Obama, compared to Sen. McCain ’08.

So guys… by all means, calling Madame President a re-run of Obama (’08 — or even 2012!) really isn’t going to find any new votes or voters, for Tangerine.

I hope to G*d he dumps Vance, and in an ersatz “Apprentice” moment, adds Kennedy as his new running mate, reopening and closing his convention — as a Zoom call. Chaos is his only remaining brand equity.

Chaos.

Buckle up boys. American adults want steady, serious leadership — even if they occasionally disagree with her, they’d rather see a steady hand — than the “scandal of the week” and chaos — of the Tangerine fever-dream 2.0.

Cheers.

Just To Amplify John’s — And Paul’s — Realizations (That Tangerine Cannot Win, Now)…

So, even Hinderaker now realizes… that MAGA is a tired, old, dead… and yes, hate-filled… brand.

And Tangerine is falling apart, day by day… showing every bit of his 78 years. And as bitter, small, and mean and self-absorbed — as ever.

So, he will lose. People here, just north of Chicago, in these deep blue lands, are making their own high end but non-official signs.

This is not from any sanctioned campaign office. But it is… genius.

Yes — this “Barbie” is… the non-Trump, John. And she is also… a lethal prosecutor running against an… unserious loser of a buffoon. And, a convicted felon to boot. She is nearly 30 years younger than he is, too. And the energy level shows it.

Watch boys, and see… what comes next.

This is the same movement as Obama 2008 — and just as it buried the ancient but far more honorable John McCain candidacy, “¡Si Puede!” will bury the odious, felonious, decrepit, misogynistic Tangerine hatred-festooned “brand”.

Out.

Hinderaker’s Views — On “Mental Illness” Ought To Be Revised, For Mirengoff’s…

In a space separated by less that 15 hours, Hinderaker posted a chuckle-headed item, declaring liberalism a “mental illness”.

His views are in need of… revision, as Mirengoff pointed out just last night.

Paul noted that — as to MAGA — “the clowns are complaining… about the circus.”

That is, Candace Owens, and many of the other clowns who inhabit the three rings of the Tangerine “circus”… now feel unhappy about their roles — wearing exploding shoes… and piling by the dozens, out of tiny burning cars.

That’s a flawless Mirengoff metaphor.

The hangers-on now feel Trump has lost it, because they’ve seen the latest polling. [It foretells an Obama-2008 like wipeout of the GOP, come just 74 days from tonight. One here belatedly in a new post, John just admitted… is unfolding.]

Said another way, Trump’s propagated mental illness / cult of personality has grown… old. Stale. Decrepit, in fact.

He is no match for a very sharp mixed race prosecutor — who is almost 30 years younger than he is, and happens to be… the sitting Veep, AND… female.

Even he knew it, as he called in to Faux News at 10 pm, to bleat about how unfair it all is. “Hunter Hunter Hunter” he burped.

Ultimately, Fox pulled the plug on him — so he called NewsMax.

These desperate, sad incoherent diatribes would have been deemed disqualifying, even in Bush43’s GOP.

Paul well knows it. John does too.

But John Hinderaker deflects, and tries to conflate feeling depressed… with liberalism being a mental illness.

Your own tiny circus show too, John — is now revealed… as nothing more than a garish… freak show.

No circus elephants, even, for Hinderaker (unless Hayward is counted).

Unworthy — of even the late 19th Century views of “modernity”.

Damn.

Out.

Cool Steve. Now Do Alabama, Mississippi And Louisiana!

Steve Hayward — ever the blithering idiot! — writes some insipid stuff about Sweden’s more recent “death by guns” rate. He’s appalled by how murderous the Swedes seem to be.

Or something. He winds up saying it is an immigration problem. [Brown people doing most of the shooting (he claims).] Uh-huh.

Just one problem there, son: in 2023, the states of Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, New Mexico, and Alaska had more than 23 gun deaths per 100,000 residents.

Sweden’s? About… one forty-sixth of those rates.

Sweden is 0.6 per 100,000. Compared to… 23.

Does Steve blame immigration for our over eight times worse rate, here in the USA, overall?

Nope.

Because he’d then have to support… gun control. If he were a logical human. [He’s not.] All of the EU (Sweden too!) adheres to strict gun control laws, you see.

What a putz.

Out.

[U] Conservative Justice Barrett Agrees: Arizona Attempts To Suppress Voting Rights Are… WRONG.

This latest (unreasoned), and thus terse miscellaneous order from the Supremes is… fascinating. It was published yesterday afternoon.

In it, we see that the Chief Justice (Roberts) and Kavanaugh cast the decisive votes — splitting the baby, a bit, in Solomon’s parlance. [The Thomas-Alito gestapo pair held true to form: they like suppressing voters, to favor GOP-jimmied outcomes.]

But rather surprisingly, Justice Barrett (a Tangerine appointee) sided with Kagan, Sotomayor and Jackson (the Court’s clear-eyed liberals)… to say that requiring a separate proof of citizenship, for long time Arizona voters, only six weeks away from mail in ballots being sent, is a bridge too far. Kavanaugh and Roberts agreed. So that part of the putative Arizona law is blocked for 2024.

And so-called “federal only” voters in Arizona may ALL continue to vote.

It is only new voters, who appear at a polling place for the first time, in this cycle, then that must — under Arizona law — present a document proving citizenship (birth certificate or passport) to be allowed to ALSO vote in state level elections. The federal only option will remain open to them (that is, they may vote Harris for President). [Or Tangerine — even though we know most… won’t.]

So, despite the hard right clucking, this will not change much at all in 2024 in Arizona.

[Updated at Noon: Mr. Johnson is whining again — that Kamala WILL win. She is echoing BHO44, and it pisses him off. I love it.]

I’ll say it again: Madame [Vice] President Harris will carry Arizona. Trump has lost this state — and with it, any chance at returning to 1600 Penn. See our prior pieces on this topic, as early as December 2023.

Cheers, boys!

Not That We Are Surprised… Yawn. Just More Of The Same… Still It’s The “Deplorable” Ann Coulter, A Licensed Attorney In MI…

I am sure we all recall when Tangerine himself cruelly mocked a professional NYT journalist, at one of his 2016-cycle rallies, because he was differently-able, and dared to ask a non-fawning question… of the pumpkin dotard.

So, Ann Coulter’s now-deleted tweet of the morning (one of “the best people“, according to the 45th prezznit) is “right on brand“.

Of course, all the rest of us were absolutely tearing up, over the joyous emotional outburst (his pride, and yes, wonder!) young Walz was showing — in seeing his father at the podium, in what was — at the moment — a very biggly stage, in front of the whole free world, to accept a nomination to be Veep, on the coming Madame President’s ticket.

He was overwhelmed by the sight — and the enormity of the joyous moment — and it showed, in every conceivable way. I loved all of it! [Coulter deemed him “weird“. Charming.]

But for Ann (and soon enough, Tangerine, I am all but certain), this is a moment to… cruelly mock. Quite ironic, indeed, given Barron’s status, as an autistic-spectrum / neuro-divergent, himself. But we’ve long seen that Tangerine tries his level best to only rarely be seen in the same zip code… as his own now 18 year old son.

If you learned nothing else, last night — do know this: the Walz family is more like the ones we all grew up around, in small towns, supporting, loving, and yes accepting help from — than the weird spray tanned guy who sh!ts into a gold toilet, and rides a golden escalator… all to avoid feeling small.

Coach Tim Walz, on the other hand, is clearly the richest man in Bedford Falls, with Zu Zu’z petals still in his pocket.

Yep — stick a fork in the MAGAts’ ’24 campaign — as it is odiously… UN-American. Out, awaiting surprise musical guests tonight! Woot!

नमस्ते

Hinderaker: Now Just A Three-Penny Farce Is Offered, By His Commentary…

This morning, John repeats his old, and plainly misleading claim — about how Tim Walz’s daughter Hope came to be — in this world.

Somehow, John (preposterously!) thinks it matters, that it was fertility treatments/drugs and not in vitro fertilization, that led to her conception. And yes, Tim was imprecise many moons ago in calling it IVF. But the central point — the one that Hinderaker churlishly wants to label as a lie, by Gov. Walz… is that he and his lovely wife used life science / bio-tech / scientific… help to bring a lovely human named Hope… into the world, and onto the stage last night.

The thing that Hinderaker dutifully ignores… is that Project 2025 would BAN BOTH science-enabled methods of conception.

He further misses… that an overwhelming majority of even religious Americans firmly believe these radical far right faux X-ians ought to “mind their own damn business!” — when it comes to how families work to conceive children, with the best advice of their own doctors. [And there is no defense — since Tangerine has explicitly endorsed almost all of Project 2025, while lying out of the other side of his A$$, that he doesn’t know who wrote it. Over 90 of his own former high Administration officials signed on or actually penned, parts of it.]

In sum, John cannot stand that his cramped 19th Century Thinking MAGA cult now stands for Fourth Reich like “fecundity” — but only in the oldest of ways… [like the program to get 1930s German women to birth lots of children — for a new Aryan army youth corps].

There is no doubt that in 2024, that notion is… toxic, in national electoral politics. But Hinderaker wants to demonize Walz for being in a family where bio-science… prevails.

H I L A R I O U S.

Out — good luck with that, old Johnnie.

Scott Johnson Sees… At Least “One True Thing”, Overnight…

Don’t get it garbled — he’s still got his knickers in a twist, over the star power, and joy — of the Chicago love fest — in contrast to the dark, “we as a nation… are going to Hell” messaging that oozed from Milwaukee, last month.

But even he admits that Oprah’s may have been the “best” speech of the Convention. He thinks so, on the basis that she is not seen as a rabid pro-Democratic partisan — at least not in the luncheon circles, of deeply suburban whyte, nominally GOP-leaning, college educated women, whose husbands likely all voted Tangerine in 2016 and 2020.

Scott well knows, even before last night, lots of them didn’t tell their husbands or older sons, but they did go in secret — and vote for Biden in 2020 — and will do so for Kamala here in 2024. [Personally, I think Michelle Obama (of two nights ago) was by far the most impactful, for people who aren’t living in the deep, deep whyte suburbs.]

But I do think Oprah’s earnest but forceful oratory will bring many more of them into our fold, for at least this November — in fact, I’d predict that some portion of of them may “come out of the closet” now, and tell at least their closest friends, in confidence, of course — that they will vote with what they imagine is their “Black girlfriend“.

It is an odd irony that (as widely validated research showed in the late 1990s) many of these same women know not a single Black man or woman, even in a passing fashion… but many of them said Oprah represented a “friend“.

They seemed (in the 1990s, at least) to think that that’s enough exposure — it was safe, and controlled. Just as they liked it.

Now this odd sociological effect is being deftly-repurposed by Team Harris/Walz — Oprah’s immense and enduring goodwill among these women (lots of whom may have voted Tangerine in 2016 — but far fewer of them in 2020).

She urged them to stand for decency, empathy and do “what they KNOW is right”. For themselves, and their daughters. She offered them… renewed joy.

I think she may have flipped many purple counties last night — some of them in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina and maybe even Nevada. And she extended Kamala’s absolutely rock solid/certain leads in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.

Excellent! Harris | Walz might see a 10% surge, nationwide now — coming out of this absolute banger — of a convention / dance party!

And the curtain is falling, as we speak, on the sad, three penny farce that was… Trumpism.

WHO Sees The First More Lethal Clade Ib Mpox Case, In Thailand, Now…

This drumbeat of tough news is likely to continue into the middle of September, when the full awareness and vaccines campaign takes hold. The version of the Mpox virus detected in this Thai case is known as Clade Ib. Health officials are particularly concerned about it because it has a death rate of 3 percent, globally (and closer to 10 percent, inside DRC) — much higher than the one-fifth of one percent death rate (related to the Claude II outbreak) observed in mid-2022.

Even so, I wish that people in country would move move ever more swiftly toward. . . well-vetted precautions. Here’s the latest from the NYT:

…Clade Ib appears to have spread mainly through heterosexual sex, epidemiologists have said. Another subtype, Clade Ia, has spread through household contact and exposure to affected animals in addition to sexual contact. So far, young children have been the most vulnerable to this subtype.

Thai officials said on Wednesday that the infected person was a 66-year-old European man who worked in an African country with an ongoing outbreak. They did not specify which country. The man, who has a home in Thailand, was not reported to have severe symptoms.

According to health officials, the man flew to Thailand from Africa, transiting in the Middle East, and arrived on the evening of Aug. 14. The next morning, he started to develop a fever and found small bumps on his skin.

Dr. Thongchai Keeratihuttayakorn, general director of Thailand’s disease control department, said the Thai authorities would notify the World Health Organization. In a statement, he said that because most of those infected do not have respiratory symptoms such as coughing or nasal discharge, the chance of spread was “less than Covid-19 or influenza….”

Now you know — and that makes Sweden, Pakistan, Philippines and Thailand as non-African nation outbreak geographies. There are outbreaks in at least four African nations, now as well.

In more upbeat news, yes — Oprah hit it out of the park last night (as a surprise Chicago guest). I think she found lots of new votes, among suburban middle aged former Trump voting whyte women, who likely won’t tell their husbands, but will go vote for control over their (and their daughters’) own bodies. Excellent! And… onward.

नमस्ते

Let RFK Jr. Get A Tangerine Cabinet Promise. He’ll Never Get Seated. Hilarious, Scotty!

So, Scott Johnson seems to think that most RFK, Jr. potential voters… are in swing states?!

Not a chance. They are, by and large, in already deep ruby red ones: Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi are his best polling states.

Those states (as my map at right suggests) are going for Trump no matter what. Who cares?

JFK runs around 1% in most of the battleground states. Maybe closer to 2% in rural, hard right upper Michigan. In sum — whether he’s in or out — or endorses Tangerine… he’s a non-factor as to the Electoral College — and we all know that’s all that matters.

And so, the idea that he will endorse Trump… is a yawner at best. It will never flip a swing state. He’s not even on the ballot in a few of them, anyway — so Tangerine will pick up nothing in those states, even if he promises to name RFK the Secretary of Health and Human Services (should he improbably run the table in swing states).

So I’ll just laugh at all these silly “hopium” ideas — out of the Powerline boys. It really irked Scott this morning that Barack and Michelle did so well, last night. And that they have tattooed Tangerine so flawlessly. Trump spent almost an hour today at his own rally whining about how “mean” they were to him.

They’ve got his number. He cannot ever get back on message, once someone mentions him in an unflattering and truthful way.

That will be his undoing. The DNC has now made clear that they will keep painting him as your A$$hole of whining old guy neighbor (a male Karen / Ken)… one who never shuts up, and yells at your kids — to stay away from his lawn.

He’s been defined: he’s a bad neighbor — utterly out of touch with people who work for a living.

Out.