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Merck Q3 ’24: Beats At Revenue Line; The Rest Is Mostly In Line — With Charge For Daiichi Sankyo Deal; HPV Vaccine Sales A Little Light…

~ condor ~ Leave a comment

While the stock is off a bit this morning on the NYSE, the truth is that none of this is a materially negative surprise.

So, this immateriality graphic here again appears. Soon enough, Merck will be trading back above $110 per share — you heard it here first. Here’s the latest from the Q3 2024 results disclosures:

…Merck on Thursday reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped expectations as the company saw strong sales from its top-selling cancer drug Keytruda, recently launched treatments and its animal health business.

But Merck’s vaccine that prevents cancer from HPV, the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S., posted another quarter of lighter-than-expected sales. Revenue from the shot, Gardasil, fell 11% compared to the year-earlier period, mainly due to lower demand in China.

The pharmaceutical giant narrowed its full-year sales forecast to a range of $63.6 billion to $64.1 billion, from a previous guidance of $63.4 billion to $64.4 billion….

Merck also lowered its adjusted profit guidance from a range of $7.72 to $7.77 per share, from a previous forecast of $7.94 to $8.04 per share. That updated outlook reflects a one-time charge of 24 cents per share related to business development deals with Curon Biopharmaceutical and Daiichi Sankyo….

And, speaking of vaccines — I hate to even mention it, but we must keep truth at the forefront. It seems some loons are claiming that Mpox Clade 1b infections are a “side effect” of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. This is insane, and has been debunked now by dozens of reputable researchers, including CIDRAP.

Onward — to enjoy unusually warm and sunny outdoor trick or treating parties with the grand nieces / munchkins!

नमस्ते

No Scott… Tangerine IS…The Garbage.

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Tonight, Johnson thinks Trump’s Cosplay in Wisconsin… means something.

It doesn’t.

Trump’s just… out of runway.

Nothing more. Scott knows it, too.

[Apparently, in the video footage of Tangerine entering the garbage truck, he twice misses the door handle — and nearly topples over, legs crossed — all while trying to step up, into the truck. That may be why this stunt matters. He’s a frail old fool.]

His people call US citizens / Puerto Ricans… “garbage”. And all else… is a diversion, by the boys.

That’s a fact.

Out.

Yes, Hinderaker — It Will Go Down To The Wire… But John Well-Knows: Trump’s… Stuck, In Swing States.

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This may be the most honest five sentences Hinderaker has written… in eight years, or so.

He is worried, because most Trumpers are too uneducated to understand polling generally, or these nascent presidential election betting markets — specifically. He knows that people betting money are usually… just handing it to the house. [Never more true than tonight — there is zero chance that Tangerine has an actual 65% chance of winning. But Vegas gets the vig, all along. Hilarious!]

So, in a sobering fashion — John writes, at lunchtime today:

…[Some] Trump supporters are feeling exultant, as the tide has been running, if only weakly, in his direction…. But if the polls are a guide, Trump’s momentum has slowed…[and is capped at 46.5% — while Kamala has cleared 50% repeatedly in the last few days].

The polls are telling us the election is too close to call, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe they are — all! — somehow undercounting Republican voters. That certainly isn’t what happened in 2022…. I think they… likely represent an effort to drive turnout in their base, and, as suggested above, to lay the groundwork for a Harris administration crackdown on [lawless, rioting] opponents….

So now — we wait. My vote has been cast, since last Friday. I suspect John’s has too.

In many places, more than half of all registered voters have already voted.

This means the “election day turnout” will have a good chance to be the deciding variable.

And, good weather is forecast — over almost all the nation for this coming Tuesday, and heavy turnouts… almost always tip — in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Buckle up boys!

Out.

Hard News: A Clade 1b Mpox Case Has Emerged Inside The UK’s Royal Free Hospital; Now Isolated…

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This is the first confirmed case (and unsurprisingly, it arrives via a traveler/tourist) inside Britain.

As we said with the Lassa Fever fatality, in Iowa yesterday, the risk to the local population is very, very small. But it needs to be… monitored. Here’s the Beeb, on it all:

…A single case of mpox… linked to the recent outbreak in parts of Africa, has been detected in the UK.

It is part of the Clade 1b outbreak, which appears to spread more easily between people. Mpox was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization in the summer.

The UK patient had recently been on holiday in at least one of the affected countries in Africa and began to feel sick 24 hours after flying home.

The patient developed flu-like symptoms on 22 October and a rash two days later.
An mpox rash of pus-filled lesions can last for up to a month. Other symptoms include fever, headaches and low energy.

The infected UK patient is being treated at the Royal Free Hospital’s specialist high consequence infectious diseases unit in London, where laboratory testing confirmed the infection was Clade 1b. This form of the virus has been causing mounting concern.
It appears able to spread more easily from person to person through close physical contact, including sex, than other types of mpox.

In Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda have all reported cases of Clade 1b mpox this year.
Its close relative Clade 1a is largely connected to exposure to infected animals or eating bush meat.

Clade 1b appears to be milder than 1a, although it’s difficult to know for certain because precise figures on the exact numbers of people infected are hard to pin down.

The patient’s close contacts, which include housemates, are being traced. This is thought to be fewer than 10 people.
“This is the first time we have detected this clade of mpox in the UK, though other cases have been confirmed abroad,” said Prof Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)…. “The risk to the UK population remains low, and we are working rapidly to trace close contacts and reduce the risk of any potential spread.”

Sweden, India and Germany have all detected cases of this strain of mpox linked to travel to affected countries….

Thankfully my girl was nowhere near the Royal Free, and is home safe for Halloween, as of last night, hale and hearty — after catching a British Airways jet yesterday noon-time, out of Heathrow. Grin… but we must always be… vigilant.

नमस्ते

Final Update: How Condor’s ’24 Calculations Have Narrowed Since August… Harris Still Wins.

~ condor ~ 2 Comments

The simplest way to do this is to just offer my current projected electoral college map, atop my prior one, from August.

She was riding a wave post convention — and since then, some Tangerine lies have dinged her lead. To be clear, I’ve taken Georgia out of her column, though I still expect she’ll win it — I do expect Tangerine voter intimidation and counting intimidation will at least delay the clear outcome there. I think both Michigan and Arizona will now be solidly blue — though Wisconsin may be closer than previously expected. It will fall in Kamala’s column though, in the end.

But yes — she will… win. She will.

Onward — and the prior August map:

There you have it. Grin.

The Supremes Stayed Virginia’s Attempt To “Add Back” To Voting Rolls — After “One Time” Purge — Undertaken During “Quiet Period”…

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The Supremes are clearly in the wrong here. There is on record proof that Virginia conducted a “one off” — a purge of voters it asserted were non-citizens (some of those, clearly were determinations made in error — see blue pull quote) at the beginning of the quiet period (when no changes may lawfully be made).

Overnight, the Supremes, with the usual “rule of law” threesome dissenting [Justice Sotomayor, Justice Kagan, and Justice Jackson would deny the application for stay], decided that Virgina need not add back some 1,600 voters it purged until after this election. Damn. Here’s the opposition brief, from an immigrants’ rights group:

…Applicants have not argued that the ad hoc process was required by state law or consistent with past practice. To the contrary, applicants and their own declarant described it as a “one-time” departure from the State’s usual procedures. Appl. App. 69, 88. Nor have applicants explained why they waited until weeks into the Quiet Period to initiate a novel removal program based on data that was up to 13 months old. And although the ad hoc process appears to have been undertaken in response to the Governor’s executive order, the order itself did not expressly describe the process or otherwise provide the public with notice that Virginia would be undertaking a new voter-removal program just before the 2024 election….

For example, applicants canceled the registration of two voters whose applications were prominently stamped “NEW CITIZEN.” Private Resp. C.A. App. SA137, SA155. Applicants also canceled the registration of a member of the League of Women Voters of Virginia who was a naturalized citizen and had voted before. Id. at SA214. A lifelong citizen who recently renewed her driver’s license discovered that her registration had been canceled when she attempted to vote earlier this month. Id. at SA225. She was not offered a provisional ballot and instead had to re-register to ensure that her vote would be counted. Id. at SA225-SA226. Another citizen who was born in Virginia was removed from the rolls and learned of her disenfranchisement only after one of the private respondents contacted her. Id. at SA226-SA227; see id. at SA218 (describing 14 additional “United States citizens,” many of whom “have been registered for years and are frequent voters,” whose registrations were cancelled)….

It is hard not to see this as Alito, Thomas, Kavanaugh, Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett trying to supress lawful votes, ones that might break toward Democratic candidates, in Virginia. But we will win Virginia for Kamala in spite of this. It will be… blue — by late night on the Fifth.

नमस्ते

Next Week, The State Of Texas Must Defend — At Trial, In Del Rio — Its Killing Of Asylum Seekers On The Rio Grande, Via Floating Razor Wire…

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The trial is to decide whether a permanent (as opposed to temporary) injunction should issue, removing the existing floating razor wire barrier, and preventing all future such builds, by Texas.

Since the ruby red Fifth Circuit authored an opinion saying it wasn’t sure the shallow Rio Grande River waters at Eagle Pass are presently “navigable waters“, the US has wisely decided to only prove that these waters meet the historical test for what makes it a federal waterway. That greatly simplifies the trial, and puts the river’s middle under federal rather than state control. Of course, to the south of the middle is owned by the government of. . . Mexico. So Texas has no business obstructing federal or Mexico’s waterways. That is how the trial will end, in my opinion. Here’s a bit from two documents filed overnight (here, and here), setting the new parameters for the trial:

…Defendants informed the Court and the United States by email on October 24, 2024, that they will require more than a week to present their case. The United States notes that the issues on which it will present trial evidence are narrower, following the Fifth Circuit’s recent en banc decision, than the parties originally had anticipated when their filed their first set of pre-trial submissions on July 26, 2024. See United States v. Abbott, 110 F.4th 700 (5th Cir. July 30, 2024).

Specifically, in light of that decision, the United States has proposed no findings of fact or conclusions of law that the Rio Grande may be determined a “navigable” water subject to Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act based on “susceptibility to commercial navigation with reasonable improvements” now or in the future. See id. at 717-18; see also ECF 227 at 14-15; ECF 236 at 1-3. Instead, the United States now only proposes findings and conclusions that the Rio Grande may be determined a navigable water based on evidence that it “historically was used or could have been used for commercial navigation.” See Abbott, 110 F.4th at 710-11….

This is a straightforward civil enforcement case brought under Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act (RHA), 33 U.S.C. § 403. Defendants stipulate that they installed a floating buoy barrier in the Rio Grande without seeking or obtaining a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers under Section 10. Nor did they have any other federal authorization. The evidence at trial will show that Defendants’ action violated Section 10, and the harm caused by this violation and other equitable factors support a permanent injunction as requested in Paragraphs 46 a-b. and d.-e. of the First Amended Complaint. ECF 60 ¶ 46.a-b., d-e.

The relevant segment of the Rio Grande, specifically between mile markers 275.5 and 610 and inclusive of the area in the vicinity of the floating barrier, is a “navigable river” and a navigable “water of the United States” under Section 10. Texas’ placement of the floating barrier violated and is violating Section 10—both its first clause (“obstruction . . . to the navigable capacity”) and, independently, its second clause (“building of . . . structures”). 33 U.S.C. § 403….

Now you know. And since we’ve previously covered the young Louisiana “STEM on Fleek” math whizzes who used trig to offer a new proof of Pythagoras, we will wait a week to put up the peer reviewed journal article they now hold — saving it for election day. Smile… we will all need a distraction, whilst we await the fate of our democracy — and our nation.

नमस्ते

Tangent: NLRB Hearing Officers Increasingly Willing To Label Amazon As A “Joint Employer” — With Its Putative “Contractor” Drivers’ Companies.

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As many may recall, we try to check in at least once each month, with a story on Jeff Bezos’ ongoing, and accelerating mistreatment of his employees’ rights under the National Labor Relations Act. This is the October ’24 post.

Previously, Amazon has taken a legalistic approach to avoid having to bargain over working conditions and wages, by supposedly hiring outside contractor firms to run the bulk of its delivery truck services. That gambit is increasingly falling apart, as Skokie, Illinois and Bakersfield, California — among several other sites have seen orders entered that in fact, Amazon controls or influences policies for drivers, through the contract firms.

Indeed, Amazon terminated a contract with Battle Tested Strategies (in Palmdale, California and in Northern Illinois), when the drivers there voted to unionize — with the Teamsters. It is pretty clear that that violates about a half-century of NLRB case law. Here’s the story, from Reuters:

…Amazon has been accused by a U.S. labor board of illegally refusing to bargain with a union representing drivers employed by a contractor, the agency announced on Wednesday.

The complaint from the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) claims that Amazon is a so-called “joint employer” of drivers employed by the contractor, Battle Tested Strategies (BTS), and used a series of illegal tactics to discourage union activities at a facility in Palmdale, California….

The NLRB in a complaint issued on Monday said Amazon broke the law by terminating its contract with BTS after the drivers unionized, without first bargaining with the Teamsters.

The board had said in August that it had found merit to the union’s claims that Amazon exerts control over BTS drivers and should be considered their employer under federal labor law. The NLRB at the time said it would issue a complaint unless Amazon settled the case….

So-called “joint employer” status would require Amazon to sit down and bargain before changing the BTS contractors’ terms. [And all that is before we excoriate Bezos, for being too much a coward to let his editorial staff at the Wa Po endorse Kamala.] Now you know. Do stay tuned — as Amazon has filed papers to appeal or reconsider this trial level ruling. Onward, grinning….

नमस्ते

A Single “Ebola-Like” Lassa Virus Death Recorded, In Iowa… Patient Recently Traveled To West Africa: A Disconcerting Development.

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It is absolutely true that the risk to the public in Iowa or the US generally is… infinitesimal.

Moreover, it was a native Iowan who went to Africa and returned, likely unaware that the virus had found a host.

Even so, it should be a reminder that in this modern jet age — we all need to be each other’s keepers. Viral agents do not respect lines drawn on some General’s map. We need to think in terms of GLOBAL public health efforts (and to be clear, I am thinking here mostly of public education and outreach efforts — as well as sanitary water devices / supplies for all humans, worldwide), not just local and in state- or country.

That’s my $0.02, for what it is worth — now, here is the story, from STAT:

…A person from Iowa who recently returned to the United States from West Africa has died after contracting Lassa fever, a virus that can cause Ebola-like illness in some patients. State health officials reported the case on Monday.

“I want to assure Iowans that the risk of transmission is incredibly low in our state. We continue to investigate and monitor this situation and are implementing the necessary public health protocols,” Robert Kruse, state medical director of the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services, said in a statement posted to the department’s website….

I might again mention that both climate change (which is forcing African populations to migrate deeper into mountainous regions in search of stable water supplies), and deforestation that comes from taking back these areas from wild nature… inexorably puts humans in increasing contact with bats, boars and spiders that for perhaps 12,000 years have seen no human contact (since the last Ice Age). So it is likely (and we’ve covered it before) that the quadruple triple outbreak in Africa right now — Ebola, Lassa, Mpox and Marburg… is in some measure also. . . climate related.

Now you know… with airport runs (from Heathrow — by way of a month in Tbilisi, Georgia — crazy election stories, there, too BTW!) this evening — getting excited! Grin.

नमस्ते

Could Mirengoff Be Right — About What Tangerine Did, Via “The KKK Garden Rally ’24” — To His Chances?

~ condor ~ 2 Comments

I think Paul, Stevie and Johnnie and Scottie are a lil’… panicky. Trump’s latest overt Klan rally has them spooked — because like them, I too know more than a bit of Presidential campaigning / close races history. And Paul’s below is a fair accounting — of 1884.

Here it is, in context:

…[One] might compare yesterday’s event to remarks delivered in New York during the presidential campaign of 1884. In that race the Republican, James Blaine, appeared to have a slight edge over the Democrat, Grover Cleveland. New York state was thought (correctly, it turned out) to hold the key to victory.

On October 29, Blaine attended a reception in New York City hosted by Protestant ministers. At that event, Rev. Samuel D. Burchard of the Murray Hill Presbyterian Church said that he and others like him “don’t propose to… identify ourselves with the party whose antecedents have been rum, Romanism, and rebellion.”

The “rum, Romanism, and rebellion” remark was widely reported. In the final days of the campaign, it became a rallying point for Cleveland’s supporters….

Cleveland won the popular vote by 23,000 out of almost 10 million votes cast. The electoral college split was 219 to 182. New York state went to Cleveland by only 1,149 votes. Had Blaine picked up New York’s 36 electoral votes, he would have been President.

Thus, it’s quite possible that the “rum, Romanism, and rebellion” remark — which, again, Blaine did not make — cost him the presidency….

On the contra-side of the argument… personally, I think our nation’s public life / politics have become coarser — more profane, if not less-educated — than generally obtained, in 1884.

So… I don’t really know, Paul.

I’ll hope you’ll prove prophetic. But I might more directly point to the early exit polling in Georgia (still to say it tips toward Kamala), where four percent of the voters identify as “Asian Indian American“. Word is, that early vote is breaking a little over 70-30 — for Kamala (as a mixed race point of pride, and the only competent person in the race this year).

If the 70-30 holds up in Georgia (and in PA and MI) — Trump loses the election on those alone.

He cannot win any of those three states unless he gets to at least 50-50 on the voters who are of Indian descent (or these voters stay home in record numbers — something they already have shown they aren’t likely to do). The math just isn’t there, given that all of these states are essentially… dead heats.

So — maybe “Trump’s 2024 Klan Rally in the Garden” will be the difference — maybe it won’t, Paul.

But I suspect the difference is there — and the independents are good and sick of Trump and his weak, small whiny reverse racism claims.

Onward. Get used to saying “Madame President”, Paul.