[U] And, Now… The Tangerine “Chuckle-Headed Nominees Show” Devolves… Into A Satire — Of Itself: Elon Musk Edition.

I am willing to bet that Elon Musk, the human (and Vivek, as well!) don’t really want to fill out all the intrusive disclosures required by 26 USC § 1604, et seq., on pain of felony charges — to lobby the United States government — specifically, the office of the preznit. See — if you are not an “agent” or head of a US federal government department, and you decide to even advise the Tangerine Dotard, that is… yep, being a lobbyist (since literally every single thing these two jamokes propose requires an Act of Congress, at a minimum).

An activity we the people are allowed to have quarterly disclosures about, under the Lobby Disclosure Act, at the office of Public Disclosure, inside the US Senate.

The whole goal here, by Elon, is trying to avoid any Senate “advice and consent” hearings, should Tangerine try to make him the head of a some new (or old) federal agency. He fears being questioned in public — about how little he understands of our system of ordered liberty. [This is so, because all he’s ever “learned” about it… is retweeting teenagers’ memes — on his X-itter platform.] You see, Elon’s SpaceX holds one of the largest federal contracts for space hauling, and receives (through Tesla federal electric vehicle tax subsidies) billions in aid, from federal and state governments. So he must… disclose.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yet and still, maybe John Hinderaker would like to encourage both Vivek and Elon to… first take the scalpel to Trump’s golf trips.

He traveled with a cast of hundreds, when he was preznit (and will do so, when he is agin’ preznit) — and he absolutely charges the very top rate, for every room at his dumps of clubs in Scotland and Ireland and Florida and New Jersey.

That was over $142 million dollars of federal cash spent AT TRUMP RESORTS, in just the first three years of his preznit-cy (and over $184 million, overall, for the four years).

Even John, hisself — as a purported leader of the frothy MAGA crowd, cannot resist a tongue in cheek flavor, in talking about a “federal department” — that is (purportedly) actually… outside of all government.

And, we call that…. per 26 USC § 1604 “lobbying”, out here, in the adult world — and these two billionaires will need to register with the Senate offices of disclosure to do ANY such work.]

An “outside of government” — independent overseer, of any competence — would say the first thing to get the axe should be… Tangerine’s federal “department” of… golf grifting.

Out.

नमस्ते

As Promised, Here’s Condor’s Assessment — Of A Fair Value, For Moderna’s Common Stock — As Of November 12, 2024…

To be fair, the Wall Street analysts are pretty deeply split, on their assessment of the company’s future. Leerink recently became the ultra-bear, dropping its 12 month target from $46, to $38. But most others are significantly north of that dour figure.

For example, BofA Securities values it at $90 (but down from $110, a quarter ago). And Oppenheimer places it at $125 a share. Moderna’s current market cap is just under $17 billion — with about 385 million shares outstanding. For the full year 2024, it will likely record total revenue of about $2.895 billion — so the shares are trading on the NASDAQ at just about six times sales. To put it another way, the price today only assumes it can sell the mRNA vaccines — of all stripes for six more years, at this pace. That is far too pessimistic, even with Pfizer and Merck offerings coming to market, to compete. You see, vaccines tend to sell at steady levels… for decades, not just six years (or so). So, this puts Moderna in the category of a much-undervalued stock, at today’s trading prices. I’d conjecture that a fairly conservative value… would be about 14 years of sales, or roughly a little more than double the trading price tonight.

All of that said, while Moderna won’t likely reach its COVID pandemic high water vaccine sales levels again in the near term (back when the shares were trading at almost $450, for a while)… the fundamental business remains very strong — and any material good news (like uptake on its RSV vaccine) at the bottom line, will cause a more pronounced spike in its NASDAQ stock price (since it is so much smaller than say Pfizer, GSK, Merck or Novo, comparatively speaking, on market caps). Sure, there are competitors — but this is a very steady state vertical.

Now, the specific question I was asked was whether any of these “majors” might buy up Moderna outright. I think that unlikely, since most of them already have collaboration agreements to share expenses and profits on various already on market mRNA vaccines. The most likely “majors” level acquirer would be Merck (strong balance sheet — and a cash flow juggernaut, in pembrolizumab)… but even with Moderna trading around $43.50 tonight, I’d be more inclined to bet on its organic earnings, now that its expense control has kicked in. [OTOH, my guess is that a buyer like Merck, should it emerge, would need to pay around $34 billion to get control of Moderna.]

Vaccines are a great business — just not the astronomical margins that pure pharma can command, since much of the bulk must be priced in a way that the developing world can afford. So, yes — Anon., I’d buy in at these levels, and trust that the market will fairly value Moderna at at least $85, in a year or so. We will update, a year from now.

नमस्ते

Oh. And Baxter Cut Its Dividend By ~40%, As Of Yesterday. YAWN. No Biggie.

This is actually a “bad news/good news” event, as the company seeks to square away its various (and recent — Hurricane Helene-related) challenges.

It didn’t make great sense — to be handing shareholders that much of “doubly taxed” cash.

A med tech company ought to be paying out closer to 2.5% in dividends, as opposed to nearly… 6%. That is inefficient tax planning for… everyone.

I realize lots of senior citizens / retirees count on those quarterly cash inflows, to meet medical and other expenses. But it is likely that once the Vantive Kidney Care businesses are fully spun out from Deerfield, that portion of the old dividend will likely be taken up by the new owners.

Now you… know. Onward.

नमस्ते

Scott Thinks Any Moron… Who Avoids Using Tangerine’s “Word Salad”… Is A New-Born Hard Right “Star”?!

This morning we are back to chronicling the deluded frothy hard right’s belief that some massive landslide occurred.

[Nope — and your boy is still going to be sentenced soon, in NYC.] This morning’s “crazy ish” from Johnson… is that the CNN talking head he listened to on — election night — is some sort of latter day Moses. [I find him to be a… snotty lil’ whiner about 90% of the time, myself. But clearly the hard Right has been bereft of any decent spokespeople, for so long… that he seems Messianic — to the Powerline boys.]

This, prmiarily because he’s the only MAGA GOP-er who doesn’t devolve into sentence fragments and slogans (filled solely with lies) when seeking (often preposterously) to explain… a problem like… Tangerine.

Uh-huh.

Sure — make him Press Secretary, Scott [and Don-old].

Like that will actually change any part of the daily chaosall heat; no light — that Trump is going to offer… again.

D A M N A T I O N.

Grinning, just the same. Out.

On December 17, 1986, A Solar Storm Buffeted Uranus — Just As Voyager Was Zooming Past, And Taking Magnetosphere Readings… Blind Luck!

Now, nearly 40 years later, the mystery of why Uranus’ plasma layer was missing — from a giant body, like that… has been solved.

It turns out that Voyager happened to be whizzing by just as a much earlier solar flare/storm washed over the giant. That pressure collapsed the plasma field — which in turn (as it does here on Earth) bounced back into a nearly spherical shape just a few days later. But by then Voyager, at ~58,000 miles an hour, had flown well out of range to make any readings.

In fact, it was facing outward, toward a rendezvous with Neptune and Pluto, by then. But now we know — purely by chance — it captured a solar storm, at the icy giant. Here’s that story out of NASA yesterday:

…Magnetospheres serve as protective bubbles around planets (including Earth) with magnetic cores and magnetic fields, shielding them from jets of ionized gas — or plasma — that stream out from the Sun in the solar wind. Learning more about how magnetospheres work is important for understanding our own planet, as well as those in seldom-visited corners of our solar system and beyond.

That’s why scientists were eager to study Uranus’ magnetosphere, and what they saw in the Voyager 2 data in 1986 flummoxed them. Inside the planet’s magnetosphere were electron radiation belts with an intensity second only to Jupiter’s notoriously brutal radiation belts. But there was apparently no source of energized particles to feed those active belts; in fact, the rest of Uranus’ magnetosphere was almost devoid of plasma.

The missing plasma also puzzled scientists because they knew that the five major Uranian moons in the magnetic bubble should have produced water ions, as icy moons around other outer planets do. They concluded that the moons must be inert with no ongoing activity….

It turned out that surmise was incorrect — there are water ions around those moons, but it took a few weeks for them to “regen”, after the solar flare event. So it is, that even in the distant, icy regions of our local system, barely warmed by the Sun’s rays… activity has persisted for billions of years. And solar storms affect even these cold giants.

Grin… onward, despite Judge Merchan’s slightly delaying his decision, this morning. Onward, resolutely.

नमस्ते

Mirengoff Well-Knows There Is No Basis To Even “Investigate” Jack Smith… YAWN.

Even as Tangerine wants blood from him, and openly wants to “deport” Jack Smith… Paul knows that these are the ravings of a demented, evil near octogenarian — drunk on power, he imagines he has — but never would ever have.

Paul admits, again that Tangerine committed felonies. But Paul will not simply tell Tangerine… it is an ADDITIONAL felony, to seek retribution — after one wins office (a second time!) against those who handled your grand jury indictments (and in one case, 34 convictions).

Mirengoff is too much a panty-waist to say such a thing — though he knows that is clear black letter law.

He can only offer — half measured parcel tongue. Damn.

Paul writes: “…I see no basis for the view that Smith committed a crime. I expect, though that Trump will pressure the new Attorney General to concoct some kind of indictment. If Smith were to be indicted, the odds against a conviction would likely be overwhelming.

If Smith violated any ethical rule, the normal remedy is through whatever bar associations he belongs to. It’s likely that complaints will be filed with the relevant bar[s]….”

Even those will doubtless fail, as he simply did his job — followed where the evidence led him.

And there is the matter of Judge Merchan, on the morning’s felony call / docket tomorrow in Manhattan. [Sentencing to go forward, on November 26, 2024.] Those are state level crimes, and Tangerine is powerless… before them.

These idiots… won’t admit that nothing stops Tangerine from spending the next 90 days in jail, until the inaugural is over.

Nothing.

Out.

Close-Out: Tiny Baxter Lobby Spend, In Q3 2023… Last of 5 In The Series.

As I said, these smaller ones have a historical device component not present in the major “pure pharma/bio-science” companies we covered over this past weekend. So they seek input on laws that generally don’t concern pure pharma (like infusion pumps and cardiovascular implants).

And Baxter — with important operational (and candidly, regulatory) challenges of its own, has greatly reduced its lobby spend over the past two years. That is more a function of deploying the dollars where they’ll do the most good in the near term, than much of anything else. Here’s that run-down, on the $440,000 of spend in the past quarter:

…Issues relating to drug pricing, home dialysis expansion, and ESRD reimbursement for Hemodialysis….

Issues related to pharmaceutical pricing; Legislation to incentivize new technology for innovation in home dialysis (no current bill number)….

Issues relating to 340B Drug pricing, and device sterilization; Issues relating to safe mobility and issues relating to diabetic retinopathy; Issues relating to pandemic preparedness act; H. Res. 550 and H.R. 4421; Issues related to artificial intelligence technology in healthcare….

Issues related to increasing funding for Strategic National Stockpile; Labor, Health, and Human Services appropriations….

Taxation of multinational companies; Monitor tax reform proposal relating to corporate tax policies….

Now you know… be excellent to one another, now and always.

नमस्ते

Hayward Believes The Constitution… Is Just So much Confetti.

The 260 year old parchment… is needed, Hayward tells us, to make inaugural party confetti in DC in early January… So let us just shred it — and get on with it.

He clearly isn’t bright enough to recognize that supporting Trump in directly violating the Constitution’s commands… proves all of us Democrats correct: that these Powerline boys are nothing other than authoritarian/anarchist apologists.

He tries to dress it up in the language of practicality, but what it actually amounts to… is that he never respected the US Constitution in the first place, when it got in the way of his personal retribution grudges — just as Tangerine does not.

So we may safely ignore them both — in any serious adult conversation — about ordered liberty, hencefourth.

Out.

Purely “Second Tier” / Bonus Stuff (1 of 2): Abbott’s Q3 2024 Spend Essentially Flat Compared To 2023…

These lesser lights — in the life sciences — also have a significant medical device component… largely missing from the major “pure pharma/bio-science” companies we covered over the weekend.

And as a rule, they spend under a third what the bigs do, quarter to quarter. But these smaller ones don’t ratchet back spending as much as some — during a presidential election quarter, as my graphic shows at right. Here’s what Abbott bent ears on, with Baxter’s disclosures due up this afternoon, if I get a free five minutes:

…S. 2477/H.R. 1770 Equitable Community Access to Pharmacist Services Act; H.R. 2369 Verifying Accurate Leading-edge IVCT Development (VALID) Act of 2023; Proposals related to sterilization of medical devices; Proposals related to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR); Proposals related to PT/INR (Prothrombin Time/International Normalized Ratio) testing; Proposals related to heart failure technology….

S. 1000/H.R. 1835 Saving Access to Laboratory Services Act; H.R. 1691 Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act of 2023; Proposals regarding PAMA regulations and changes to modernize and update the Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule; Proposals related to Medicare coverage of continuous glucose monitors; Proposals to ensure Medicare coverage for emerging medical device technology; Proposals related to medical device reimbursement and coverage….

Proposals related to U.S. global health programs and pandemic preparedness; Proposals to advance global virus surveillance; Proposals related to preserving critical medical supply chains….

Proposals related to access to infant formula; Proposals related to third party litigation reform; Public Law 115-97 The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act….

Public Law 117-169 Inflation Reduction Act of 2022; Proposals to reform domestic and international tax structures….

Now you know… onward, smiling — on a sunny Monday.

नमस्ते

Silly Conspiracy Theories — From Bitter Old Scott Johnson, This Morning.

Scott thinks he should be able to say whether former two term Presidents… are allowed inside the Beltway, to meet with fellow party members.

Geez, Scott — this is not the old USSR Politburo, or the current state party councils in China run by Xi… where ex-leaders are grabbed and run out of town, or disappeared to a gulag, altogether with their families.

This is just more “crazy ish, from old pop-pop.

And consider the hypocrisy, here: whereas… Tangerine almost violently refused to leave town, and surrender the keys to 1600 Penn. — then he continually and falsely said that Mr. Biden was not even the duly elected President — for four long years, now. To this very morning. That is a threat to the system of ordered liberty, ongoing through January 2025.

Trump was (and is) defying the legitimate — and peaceful — transfer of leadership… of our nation.

So, saying that smart people do… still willingly listen to Barack H. Obama (44th) on numerous important matters… is no surprise. It is laudatory.

Do sit down, Scottie — or take some more… of your Ketamine.