Author: condor

A Strike — By A Rogue Space Rock — Seems Most Likely Scenario, Now: MAVEN Is Still MIA, Over Mars…

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But overnight, NASA released new details, about what is known. On December 6, Maven was spotted for a moment, by a radio telescope. That bit of data indicates it was in an unexpected “spin” — and also that its orbital attitude had been changed.

Absent a misfiring of its engines, while on the dark side of Mars (read: seems unlikely), it would stand to reason that the simplest explanation for these data packets would be. . . some random “strike“, by a passing space rock — likely at very high (relative) velocities. That would be enough to change its orbit, and put it into a “spin“. And the spin will make it near impossible to re-establish communications and make a correcting / compensating engine burn.

In any event, we will keenly await more news, from NASA | JPL. Until then, here is that latest blog post, and a bit:

…Although no spacecraft telemetry has been received since Dec. 4, the team recovered a brief fragment of tracking data from Dec. 6 as part of an ongoing radio science campaign. Analysis of that signal suggests that the MAVEN spacecraft was rotating in an unexpected manner when it emerged from behind Mars. Further, the frequency of the tracking signal suggests MAVEN’s orbit trajectory may have changed. The team continues to analyze tracking data to understand the most likely scenarios leading to the loss of signal. Efforts to reestablish contact with MAVEN also continue….

NASA is also working to mitigate the effect of the MAVEN anomaly on surface operations for NASA’s Perseverance and Curiosity rovers. Four orbiters at Mars, including MAVEN, relay communications to and from the surface to support rover operations. NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and ESA’s (European Space Agency’s) ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter all remain operational. For the next two weeks of scheduled surface operations, NASA is arranging additional passes from the remaining orbiters, and the Perseverance and Curiosity teams have adjusted their daily planning activities to continue their science missions….

Here’s to hoping. But this lil’ guy is likely… end of mission.

नमस्ते

A Marginally-More Sensible View — Of The Stuff Hinderaker Just Fawned Over…

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So Paul Mirengoff does much tonight, to show Hinderaker how uncurious the latter man’s become — in his dotage.

Hinderaker applauded all but high tariffs, where Mirengoff cogently dissects Trump’s wildly flawed foreign policy views — as to both China, and Russia:

…[At]around the time it issued the Document, the Trump administration granted permission for Nvidia to sell AI chips to China. I have trouble reconciling that decision with the position the administration stakes out in the Document.

When it comes to Russia, I agree with the Journal that the National Security Document is soft. It’s not just that the Document fails to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine — the first invasion of its type in Europe since World War II. It also fails to understand what this invasion tells us about Russia’s intentions and the threat it poses to other Eastern European countries…

Yes, Paul is more sensible – about this same pile of Trumpian BS… but only marginally so.

To be sure, this Trump statement is no doubt the stuff of unicorn horn powder elixirs. It doesn’t really exist — at all.

Just some fanciful fiction writing, by Team Tangerine 2.0. But at least Paul makes the effort that Hinderaker lacks the brain-power to make, as my immediately prior post noted, mere moments ago.

Out.

In Which John All But Openly Admits “Almost None Of This Will Ever Come To Pass”. Hilarious.

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Again we see that Tangerine 2.0 puts out scads of mostly impotent talking points… and foolishly assumes… that they are self-executing, since the pumpkin-king declared it to be so.

Here Hinderaker applauds it all, wildly, but closes his 25 paragraph essay with essentially an admission: “good luck — with all that“.

Hilarious. What a goddamn dumb-show this whole she-bang has become.

[And that is before I even mention the disgusting claim (by Trump, on social media today — one morning after the astonishingly brutal murder — by knife attacks, of Rob Reiner, and his wife of many years, by his drug-involved and troubled, son) that the murder was a result of his spouting “Trump Derangement Syndrome” talking points.]

The man is… a foul-mouthed monster. A monster, indeed.

DOGE Caused This. “The Stoopid: it Burns…” Capture of Whole Sectors Dept. — 2025

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Tangerine 2.0 is now touting something he calls “Tech-Force“. It exists primarily because Elon Musk and DOGE gutted almost all the technology workers in the federal government. And now we will all pay — to rebuild it?!?

So now the Donald is calling on private [tech] industry players to supply what amounts to a government controlled and funded “Peace Corps“-like cadre of workers (albeit in government tech) — for two-year stints each, to ostensibly catch up from, and repair… all the things that were wrecked by one Elon Musk. And, moreover, he proposes that we increase the deficit to do so.

Hard pass — here is Apple Insider, on all of that:

…[Tangerine 2.0’s X account announced] Monday… a program that offers salaries from $150,000 to $200,000 plus benefits, targeting early- and mid-career talent for agencies like [the US Dept. of] Treasury and [the US Dept. of] Defense [which Hegseth has renamed the War Dept.]. Participants will work directly with leaders on financial systems and defense efforts, partnering with tech giants. [OPM has] framed it as a vital step to keep America leading in technology amid global AI competition. Applications are open now at techforce.gov….

[And from an unbiased source, Apple Insider:] Every attempt to create teams of technologists to aid the government in consultation and education has been met with resistance. The first of such initiatives was created in 1972 [due largely to the rampant conflicts of interest — which in turn lead to gaping opportunities for graft and corruption].

The fundamental misunderstanding of technology and its implementation in the government has reared its head for the last three decades. We’ve heard White House officials share absurd ideas about automating nuclear power and more lately converting entire organizations into AI-powered chatbots.

It remains to be seen exactly what the Tech Force might accomplish, but only time will tell. There is no doubt that there are portions of the government that could benefit from technology being implemented efficiently, but sadly, the bets for such advancement are put on the wrong horses….

This is essentially a super-sized version of the capture Trump 1.0 ran on the US Postal Service, allowing DeJoy to gut it — in preference for DeJoy’s own private contractor delivery services… but this threatens all govt. tech. Damn. You will note that Apple is not participating. Good on ’em!

नमस्ते

The Noemites… Believe No Law, At All, Governs Their Endless Abuse Of Due Process — Her Latest Abrego Nonsense Has Been… Already Dumped.

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Yesterday (on a Sunday!), the “government” finally got around to filing its opposition to Friday’s TRO. It has already lost. Noem and her minions are. . . enjoined. Just as we said.

But… just for a complete record — I’ll link it. But I will not quote it. I did already (on Friday night) quote the TRO (issued from the bench, by the ever-capable USDC Judge Xinis in Maryland). It is already in force — and here is what those moving papers say:

…Unlawful detention inflicts irreparable harm. Miranda v. Garland, 34 F.4th 338, 365 (4th Cir. 2022) (noting that the erroneous deprivation of an alien’s liberty, “for even minimal periods of time, unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury”); Mata Velasquez v. Kurzdorfer, 794 F. Supp. 3d 128, 154 (W.D.N.Y. 2025) (“[T]here is no question that unlawful detention causes irreparable harm.”). Petitioner will thus suffer irreparable harm if he is unlawfully detained….

The balance of harms and public interest decisively favor injunctive relief. There is no equitable or public interest in detaining individuals without legal authority. And there is “no public interest in the perpetuation of unlawful [government] action.” Am. Fed’n of State, Cnty. & Mun. Emps., AFL-CIO v. Soc. Sec. Admin., No. 25-cv-1411, 2025 WL 1249608, at *62 (4th Cir. Apr. 30, 2025) (citations omitted). Conversely, both the equities and the public interest favor ensuring government agencies comply with court orders and respect fundamental liberty interests.

Because “habeas corpus is, at its core, an equitable remedy,” a district court has “substantial discretion to appropriately redress any violation of an order granting habeas corpus relief.” Wolfe v. Clarke, 718 F.3d 277, 285 (4th Cir. 2013) (citing Schlup v. Delo, 513 U.S. 298, 319 (1995)). Here, that equitable authority supports entry of a temporary restraining order preventing Respondents from circumventing yesterday’s release order through re-detention on the same unlawful grounds….

Onward, resolutely. He will remain free — certainly until mid-January, and the final hearings in Tennessee.

नमस्ते

Updated / Monday Tangent: Peter L. Brandt Is A Trading Legend — Since The 1980s… And He’s Right — About Bitcoin Spot Price-Trends.

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A year and a half ago — in Spring ’24, he pointed out that the parabolic upswings in Bitcoin spot prices… were over.

He makes the case more on chart psychology than on pure economics. But the point he makes is valid — because in any capital market, a decent portion of the demand vs. supply curves, which drive all price points… is due to traders’ collective psychology.

Do they think there are more suckers, waiting in the wings, with cash to burn?

Or do they think that it is going to be a hard-scrabble Xmas (again)?

The latter seems clearly correct — with Tangerine 2.0’s chaos everywhere.

So he posits that once the parabola breaks — not bends — a 80% draw-down (to spot pricing around $25,000) will come. Maybe by mid-2026.

Here’s CoinDesk on it all, on this dourly-chilly mid-December Monday morning:

…Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin’s signature growth parabola has fractured, opening the door to a brutal slide potentially down to $25,000.

Brandt’s call hinges on exponential decay in bitcoin’s bull cycles. The cryptocurrency has historically rallied hard in 12-18 months after halving and subsequently slipped into a bear market, characterized by 70% to 80% pullback from record highs….

However, each bull cycle has seen diminishing returns. For instance, following the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC chalked out a 100-fold rise to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold rise and the 2020 halving brought an eight-fold rise.

The latest post-halving cycle, which kicked off following the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices double to a record high of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have pulled back to well-under $90,000, slicing through the parabola curve that has marked massive price uptrends during each prior cycle….

I can first hand verify that Mr. Brandt was making multi-millions, on his charting — of CFTC regulated commodities pools, back in the mid-1980s — when I was just a neophyte junior associate attorney at a big Chicago lawfirm, one that was writing his disclosure documents.

Yep, I spent a lot of late nights, at a financial printer (what an old school world that was, with steaks delivered at 1 am, from Gene & Georgetti’s — then back at my desk on the 69th floor facing north by 7:30 am, shaved and showered, in another double breasted Italian designer suit — the same morning! Whoah!) all while reading over his theories on markets (proofing them, actually).

And so, I can vouch for his now 45 year history of… far more good calls than bad ones.

And so, Riot Platforms will tank — perhaps to below $10 — and maybe back toward… $4, before it is all over. Onward, grinning.

Now you know.

नमस्ते

NASA Sees Two Of Its Vehicles Named [By Time] As Top 25 “Groundbreaking” — Here, In The Young New Millennium. Sweet.

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It must be said: even with all the Tangerine 2.0 caused-chaos, this agency continues to… shine.

Since the mid- to late-1950s… “the best and brightest” have uniformly, and spectacularly… applied themselves, at NASA. The Barsoomian rover, NASA’s rolling science lab — has spent more than a decade uncovering clues that Mars once could have supported life (in exactly the forms as we understand that term) — transforming our understanding of our planetary neighbor. Truly, these discoveries could not have happened, without the hardy lil’ rover.

And despite the initial naming controversy — there is now no room for doubt: JWST is (far and away) the finest telescope [of any kind!] in all of human history. The stunning images — and resulting discoveries — arrive almost daily, now. It sits out at L2, the Lagrange Point, where it floats in gravitational equilibrium, under its mylar shades (in very nearly absolute zero temps).

Here’s the story from the mavens at NASA:

…Two icons of discovery, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope [JWST] and NASA’s Curiosity rover, have earned places in TIME’s “Best Inventions Hall of Fame,” which recognizes the 25 groundbreaking inventions of the past quarter century that have had the most global impact, since TIME began its annual Best Inventions list in 2000. The inventions are celebrated in TIME’s December print issue.

“NASA does the impossible every day, and it starts with the visionary science that propels humanity farther than ever before,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate, NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Congratulations to the teams who made the world’s great engineering feats, the JWST and the Mars Curiosity Rover, a reality. Through their work, distant galaxies feel closer, and the red sands of Mars are more familiar, as they expanded and redefined the bounds of human achievement in the cosmos — for the benefit of all….”

Excellent — now you know. And here’s to hoping that we soon hear a ping-back from the orbiting MAVEN, around Barsoom, having operated for some 11 years, almost flawlessly — but now having fallen silent… with each passing day, the probability fades, that we will ever hear from it again. And so, I’m smiling a rather sad smile, tonight. But as ever, tomorrow is… a new day.

नमस्ते

Hinderaker Lies About Not Taking Govt. Bailout Money…

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Tonight Hinderaker bloviates about the state of US charitable giving in 2025.

He claims that Democratic organizations get far more money from the federal government in the form of charitable funding / donations than do Republican ones. I am certain that is false in 2025. Consider USAID, as just one example.

But the real reason I write is to note that he claims his charitable organization does not take — and has never taken — government money.

That statement is wildly false — and from his own mouth, no less — in 2021. He took about a fifth of a million dollars in PPP funding. Most recently, he filed disclosure forms that indicated he took PPP funding during Covid ostensibly to continue paying paychecks to his staff. But then a few months later, he crowed that he wasn’t ever going to pay back any of the money that theoretically he had borrowed. [He’s a millionaire, many times over.]

Charming.

The man is reprobate and a liar, and he’s given us all the proof… himself.

Out.

UPDATE: Abrego Garcia Remains Safe, At Home — With His Family — Until At Least Mid-January 2026.

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Yawn. No surprise. The able USDC Judge Paula Xinis in Maryland agrees that we don’t run star chambers, where fake ICE employees claiming to be “judges” may completely re-write, and then “enter” orders on six year old cases, to make someone lawfully here… immediately removable — without any notice, or opportunity to be heard in opposition (violating due process).

That is antithetical to our system of ordered liberty. But it is just… Thursday, to the Noemites, and Tangeriners 2.0. Here’s the order, and a bit:

…See 8 U.S.C. § 1231 (a)(1)(A) (“when an alien is ordered removed, the Attorney General shall remove the alien from the United States within a period of 90 days.”). Respondents also have detained Abrego Garcia for the six-month presumptive period articulated in Zadvydas, when conservatively considering the time spent in ICE detention since 2019, combined with the time spent in detention in El Salvador, and in ICE custody after securing his release in the Tennessee Criminal Matter. Nor had Respondents done anything to secure Abrego Garcia’s third-country removal between 2019 and August 2025. Cf. Zavvar v. Scott, Civ. No. TDC-25-2104, 2025 WL 2592543 at *4 (D. Md. Sept. 8, 2025). Thus, for the reasons previously articulated in ECF No. 110 and in this Order, Abrego Garcia is likely to succeed on the merits of any further Zadvydas claim….

[T]he public retains keen interest in ensuring that government agencies comply with court orders, especially those necessary to protect individual liberties. In this respect, the Court reminds Respondents that … [f]or the public to have any faith in the orderly administration of justice, the Court’s narrowly crafted remedy cannot be so quickly and easily upended without further briefing and consideration….

Onward, resolutely — to a matinee later today, of the “Nutcracker on Ice” — little kids’ edition! Wind-chills are now between minus 14 and minus 25… so, “on ice” — quite literally!

नमस्ते

Hinderaker Is Right About One Thing…

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That is, that Donald J. Trump‘s time — with any real power — any clearly operative authority, or vibrant ability to act broadly — and complete any particular “policy” initiative… is already almost over.

Hinderaker knows this to be true — and says so, tonight. But along the way he wants to point to externalities that (he imagines) are causing it, rather than admitting that Trump never had any moral authority to do anything, and completely eradicated any sense of “the high ground”, literally from his first day in office on.

So yes, John, you are right (as to outcome): Trump‘s time is nearly at an end. The Democrats will control the US House — and they probably will win control of the Senate. Excellent — you have only yourselves to blame, for every bit of it.

So far, no one at Powerline as far as I’ve seen, has exhibited the courage to admit that for the first time in over a quarter of a century, after last week, there is a Democrat holding the office of Mayor in Miami. This is not only in Trump‘s kitchen, but it’s also in the MAGA / faux theocrat DeSantis’… that’s a very bad omen for these boys.

Correspondingly, it is a pretty good barometer of how disgusted ordinary Americans are with the way the corrupt MAGA agenda’s “rubber meets the road”.

So the midterm losses for the GOP are likely to be worse even than John imagines.

I for one cannot wait for November of 2026 to show up on my calendar.

Grin!