Back in November of 2024, we first offered our comprehensive assessment of what was then deeply undervalued Moderna. Our assessment is that it still remains undervalued (but now by less than 30%).
That said, on November 18, 2025, it was trading down around $22 a share — during peak lunacy from RFK on vaccines, generally.
Here in early March 2026, Vinay Prashad has once again left / been pushed out(?) of FDA for the second time in a year — after spouting nonsense about various bioscience matters. That is good news, if long overdue, for all vaccine makers, but especially Moderna.
And so, we noticed that Moderna is now up over 130% since November of 2025, trading above $57, early last week (but pulling back a touch, to $52 by Friday).
Even so, we stand by our original analysis / conclusion — that the stock is worth closer to $85, when fairly valued for the long-lived vaccine franchises. RFK’s lunacy about vaccines will fade in time, and while it is unlikely that Moderna will return to the $448 level it saw in the chaos of Covid in 2021, $100 a share is possible — once sensible science takes full-hold again.
Here is that news on Prashad, but do not be afraid that Moderna has reached overvalued stage… the firm still has quite a ways to run:
…The Food and Drug Administration’s embattled vaccine chief, Dr. Vinay Prasad, is once again leaving the agency — the second time in less than a year that he’s departed after controversial decisions involving the review of vaccinations and specialty drugs for rare diseases.
FDA Commissioner Marty Makary announced the news to FDA staff in an email late Friday, saying Prasad would depart at the end of April. Makary said Prasad would return to his academic job at the University of California, San Francisco….
It is truly unfortunate that ill-informed political winds still are endangering the health of American children, but hopefully that time is coming to an end. And with it, Moderna’s RSV vaccine, and mRNA vaccine makers generally — should flourish. Onward.
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