A year and a half ago — in Spring ’24, he pointed out that the parabolic upswings in Bitcoin spot prices… were over.
He makes the case more on chart psychology than on pure economics. But the point he makes is valid — because in any capital market, a decent portion of the demand vs. supply curves, which drive all price points… is due to traders’ collective psychology.
Do they think there are more suckers, waiting in the wings, with cash to burn?
Or do they think that it is going to be a hard-scrabble Xmas (again)?
The latter seems clearly correct — with Tangerine 2.0’s chaos everywhere.
So he posits that once the parabola breaks — not bends — a 80% draw-down (to spot pricing around $25,000) will come. Maybe by mid-2026.
Here’s CoinDesk on it all, on this dourly-chilly mid-December Monday morning:
…Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin’s signature growth parabola has fractured, opening the door to a brutal slide potentially down to $25,000.
Brandt’s call hinges on exponential decay in bitcoin’s bull cycles. The cryptocurrency has historically rallied hard in 12-18 months after halving and subsequently slipped into a bear market, characterized by 70% to 80% pullback from record highs….
However, each bull cycle has seen diminishing returns. For instance, following the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC chalked out a 100-fold rise to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold rise and the 2020 halving brought an eight-fold rise.
The latest post-halving cycle, which kicked off following the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices double to a record high of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have pulled back to well-under $90,000, slicing through the parabola curve that has marked massive price uptrends during each prior cycle….
I can first hand verify that Mr. Brandt was making multi-millions, on his charting — of CFTC regulated commodities pools, back in the mid-1980s — when I was just a neophyte junior associate attorney at a big Chicago lawfirm, one that was writing his disclosure documents.
Yep, I spent a lot of late nights, at a financial printer (what an old school world that was, with steaks delivered at 1 am, from Gene & Georgetti’s — then back at my desk on the 69th floor facing north by 7:30 am, shaved and showered, in another double breasted Italian designer suit — the same morning! Whoah!) all while reading over his theories on markets (proofing them, actually).
And so, I can vouch for his now 45 year history of… far more good calls than bad ones.
And so, Riot Platforms will tank — perhaps to below $10 — and maybe back toward… $4, before it is all over. Onward, grinning.
Now you know.
नमस्ते
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