John’s fever dreams notwithstanding, Kamala is likely 57% to 43% favored — to win.
About 60-40.
Forget the finance bro betting pool; they are betting strictly on what they would hope would happen, to improve their take-home pay in the form of reduced personal income taxes, and reduced regulation on the securities businesses they generally run.
There you have it. And certainly, something wild (well outside all the polling, as happened in ‘16) could happen, but 538.com was right in 2008, 2020, 2012 (missed on 2016), 2018, 2020 and 2022. And Trump is a much more known quantity now, than he was in 2016. And that in no manner helps his chances.
I like those odds.
Out.
