I suppose the wild card here is whether Bitcoin maximalists are willing to break international law, and the moral sense of the planet — and keep the Russian oligarchs liquid, by continuing to trade with them in Bitcoin and to a lesser extent, other crypto-.
But IF the whales are willing to stand with Ukraine, this will all shape up as did the market macro moves in 2001. That is, we will see a risk off asset winter, continue.
It may take a couple of months… but Condor predicts… it is coming. The Bitcoiners / Ayn Randers… hate totalitarians (Putin) even more than they hate Democratic governments.
They will almost without exception hold the line, with the people of Ukraine. Here’s the latest from Coindesk — and a bit of it:
…[In 2001,] the S&P 500’s post-invasion rally peaked within three months and resumed a decline related to the dot-com bust before setting new bear market lows. QCP expects risk assets to chart similar moves this time, saying the macroeconomic conditions today are similar those of 21 years ago….
“The closest parallel to the present situation is the 2001 Afghan war given the similarities: 1. Markets were under pressure from the dot-com deleveraging. 2. Impending stagflation with inflation at a then decade-high level of 3.5%,” QCP said. “In the Afghan war, markets saw a relief rally that lasted three months before resuming the downtrend and eventually breaking below the post-invasion lows….”
We should see Riot Blockchain’s year end GAAP losses tonight.
Onward, looking for better days… ahead. Be excellent to one another.
नमस्ते
Powerline Lies... 